ACE-ACE/Samy/Jackal Over-Under System

[TheSaint]

damn, thats pretty time-consuming man...im really not that good with spreadsheets and databases, or esle i would have backtested it to 1000 B.C. namean

 

[disboitee]

hey Jackal, are you going to post all the College O/U spreadsheet on here week by week for us? thanks...

 

[MikeOxbig]

And what does 9 plays from two years ago conclusively tell us exactly? :think2:

Exactly. You made my point for me.

It's called gambling. If you can't afford to lose what you wager then you shouldn't do it. Everyone should be fully aware that this was only used for half a season. Even 2 full seasons wouldn't tell you anything about this year. Heck, it could completely bomb this year. Yes, I expect there to be fewer, more reliable plays as the season moves on as we compile more data. But I am not going to sit on the sidelines and twiddle my thumbs for another month. BOL with whatever you decide to do. (<)<

Relax. I'm not telling you what you should or shouldn't do, I'm just relaying my experience. If you have the jack and need the action, then gamble away. I have spent a month now making my own spreadsheet and analyzing the results in the process, and I'm just sharing my perceptions and past experiences. And if throwing in my $.02 minimizes yours or anybody else's losses, then I'm glad I could help. Last time I checked, that's what this forum was all about. That is what we are doing here...right?

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[Packsterp]

Jackal your the man thanks for your hard work:toast:

 

[goblue12]

Here's to Week 4 being the "magic week" for this system.

3 games played = solid read on most teams.

 

[alkimyst]

bump

 

[goblue12]

According to my calculations, I see 7 plays for the 17+ system.

Fresno State - Cincinnati over
Southern Miss - Kansas over
South Florida - Florida State over
Akron - Central Michigan under
New Mexico State - New Mexico under
Central Florida - East Carolina under
Western Kentucky - Navy under

 

[FalconPhan]

Is there gonna be a spreadsheet for this week or is Jackal gonna confirm plays thanks in advance

 

[Murrdogg]

jackal will post them tomorrow he said

 

[whateva]

all you guys should stop asking and just read the thread. the formula is time consuming and i know you 99% of you won't even do the math. just jump on the wagon and go along for the ride.

 

[whateva]

Central Florida @ East Carolina: -25.5 UNDER
Fresno State @ Cincinnatti: +22 OVER
Akron @ Central Michigan: -22 UNDER
UAB @ Texas AM: +20.5 OVER
Southern Miss @ Kansas: +22.5 OVER
Arkansas @ Alabama: +31.5 OVER
Florida @ Kentucky: +22.5 OVER
South Florida @ Florida State: +18.5 OVER
New Mexico St. @ New Mexico: -23 UNDER
Western Kentucky @ Navy:-29 UNDER

These are the plays I got based on OFFENSIVE STATS ONLY, with a value of +-17.

Mulan and I both ran the numbers and we both got these same results.

 

[jinesh]

I have done the math this is what i came up with. Over +17 or under -17

Fresno St 61.5 Over

Southern Miss 59 Over

South Florida 50.5 Over

Navy 49.5 Over

Alabama 57 Over

Florida 53.5 Over

Kent St Under

UAB 62 Over

Rice 46.5 Under

 

[whateva]

you got the rice game wrong

 

[jinesh]

You write whateva Rice is only 8 no play

 

[disboitee]

" how you do the DEFENSE O/U? and AVERAGE O/U? "
i just know how to do the OFFENSE O/U ...

 

[Mulan]

Jinesh, Navy is an under, formula says 21, O/U is 50. PLAY THE UNDER not over

 

[HawkerJimbo73]

Jimbo,

I tried to edit my previous post with no luck. Here is the direct link for tek-tips forum post I referenced earlier regarding the excel =MATCH and =INDEX formulas to pull the numbers automatically:

http://www.tek-tips.com/viewthread.cfm?qid=1568711&page=1

Let me know if you need anymore help.

Mike
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Mike,

Quick question: I almost have it figured out, but I just need to know a website that shows all the matchups but doesn't have the rotation number. I use statfox for the stats, but the statfox matchups have Rot. #'s, so the formula doesn't work right for me. If you don't mind, which site do you get your matchups from? Can you post the link?

Thanks a lot Mike!
Jimbo

 

[disboitee]

how do you guys do find the Defensive O/U? and Average O/U? how you do it? thanks...

 

[disboitee]

Mike,

Quick question: I almost have it figured out, but I just need to know a website that shows all the matchups but doesn't have the rotation number. I use statfox for the stats, but the statfox matchups have Rot. #'s, so the formula doesn't work right for me. If you don't mind, which site do you get your matchups from? Can you post the link?

Thanks a lot Mike!
Jimbo

what do you mean by the rotation numbers? where is that and why is not good ?

 

[HawkerJimbo73]

what do you mean by the rotation numbers? where is that and why is not good ?

Well every team on the sportsbook has a number next to it. That's the rotation number for that team at every book. That's fine, but the formula I'm trying to write references an entire cell on excel, and when the rotation number is next to the team, it messes everything up.

You needn't worry about this though, as it has nothing to do with the system itself. It's just me personally making a spreadsheet (which is a trainwreck by the way).

Also, for your other question, you get defensive stats the same way as you get offense. Just use the original formula, substituting defense numbers for offense. I recommend reading the ENTIRE thread. All 20-something pages. I know it will take time, but there is a lot of good info in there.

Good luck!