ACE-ACE/Samy/Jackal Over-Under System

Betallsports · Sep 11, 2009

TheJackal said:
Yes there is a record in the thread for last years plays. It was at or close to 70% for posted plays. (on my handheld so can't look it up easily) System picks more unders than overs but I think the overs hit at a slightly higher rate. I think the all 3 match plays had the highest percentage.

Thanks TJ, Good Stuff :103631605

TheJackal · Sep 12, 2009

automax01 said:
Are you taking the avg -375 for both offense and defense? If so I am coming up with a different # Please explain.

Honestly I'm not going to debate your number vs my number. Different sites might have slightly differently stats. Anyway, NO it is not 375. The very first post In this thread says "the first thing you do is...". Do that and maybe you get a closer number. However the plays are the plays whether your numbers match or not.

TheJackal · Sep 12, 2009

doogieboy said:
So me reading this correct, the best value plays would be LSU Under, Bama Under and ULL over? I do realize nothing is official until week 4.
Thanks for sharing and GL to all.

So you are asking of you should only play the all 3 match. I realize there are a lot of plays this week. I would not weight any single play over another. Remember this is week 2 and we are still basing plays off of last years stays. Not time to go whole hog yet. Be patient. Profits will come. Btw, go JETER. He is the man.

kingking · Sep 12, 2009

thanks very much ace ace sammy and jackal!! amazing info that killed it last year... best of luck!!!

TheJackal · Sep 12, 2009

Betallsports said:
Thanks TJ, Good Stuff

Thanks BAS. Not afraid to post a record here so of you want to 'verify' it and post please do. I'm at a kcbs BBQ competition this weekend so access is limited to my handheld.

TheJackal · Sep 12, 2009

kingking said:
thanks very much ace ace sammy and jackal!! amazing info that killed it last year... best of luck!!!

Thanks for the kind words. I am in touch with ace via email so his voice is included in my posts. Samy is taking some time off so he has handed us the reigns. BOL to you.

TheSaint · Sep 12, 2009

lets get em this year again, followed last year all the way..think these stats-cappers are the way to go, no emotions involved, no fan-bullshit..a system just spitting winners, thats all we need. good luck boys.

jpm · Sep 12, 2009

from the grid are the plays in green better value

Steiner69eR · Sep 13, 2009

i was an idiot today and did exactly what was mentioned NOT to do..i decided to put some $ on all of the plays, even though we need at least 4 weeks to compile data...this type of stupidity is what loses bankrolls....dang...gotta bounce back, and im sure this system will be spitting out winners like last year during the prime of the season!

TheSaint · Sep 13, 2009

yeah, this system kicks in later in the season, so no reason to go crazy on it, or even them play them right now. gl next week man.

TheJackal · Sep 13, 2009

I still put a unit on all and went 2-5-1. I hope some got 3 wins or even 4 if they played all including the Tenn game. Very unimpressive but certainly didn't kill the bankroll. at, just under, or just over .500 for the first two weeks depending if you played the Tenn game or got a win instead of a push.

I will start leaning on this years stats for week 3 which ACE and I agrred upon over emaail. Again, it will 'officially' kick in beginning with week 4 but I will continue to post before that for those that are interested. BOL on everyone's NFL plays today.

MikeOxbig · Sep 13, 2009

HawkerJimbo73 said:
Mike, I am trying to figure out the same thing! What did you do to do that?

Thanks,
Jimbo

Sorry for the delay in getting back with you Jimbo...

Since I'm not at home right now and I won't be for another day, I don't have access to the formula. So here is what you do:

Go to the tek-tips.com forums and search for posts by brose99. Look for my most recent posts (3-4 days ago I think). One of the geeks over there showed me the formula within 5 minutes. Its a combo formula that uses the =MATCH function and the =INDEX function.

This should get you the info you need. If not, shoot me a PM a I will help you out.

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MikeOxbig · Sep 13, 2009

Jimbo,

I tried to edit my previous post with no luck. Here is the direct link for tek-tips forum post I referenced earlier regarding the excel =MATCH and =INDEX formulas to pull the numbers automatically:

http://www.tek-tips.com/viewthread.cfm?qid=1568711&page=1

Let me know if you need anymore help.

Mike
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Blue54 · Sep 13, 2009

Mike...any chance you'd be willing to share your excel file? I've struggled to put one together and would love a working to sheet to use, tweak with some of my ideas, etc. If so, I will give you my email to send it to. If not, I understand. Thanks and good luck.

Sorry to post this in the thread but it looks like your not set-up for PM's?

Murrdogg · Sep 13, 2009

NFL Try Out

Hey everyone, I just wanted to show you something that I tried with this system for the NFL. Firstly, these are not plays for this forum, I just wanted to show you what I got. I did the formula for week one with last years yards per game average and it is 11-2 by the time the Greenbay/Bears game started, check out the excel sheet below.

Murrdogg · Sep 13, 2009

Two Games Left

After the Packers game its 12-2, two games left

HawkerJimbo73 · Sep 14, 2009

Mike Oxbig said:
Jimbo,

I tried to edit my previous post with no luck. Here is the direct link for tek-tips forum post I referenced earlier regarding the excel =MATCH and =INDEX formulas to pull the numbers automatically:

http://www.tek-tips.com/viewthread.cfm?qid=1568711&page=1

Let me know if you need anymore help.

Mike
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Thanks Mike! I will try to figure it out. I appreciate your help!

indiana · Sep 14, 2009

Jackal..........

thanks for the time your put into this... after 4 weeks I'm sure the numbers will be just like last year...

indy

MikeOxbig · Sep 14, 2009

In addendum to what Murrdog posted:

If you used this system and went by preseason numbers (offense only) to determine your NFL Totals Plays for this week at +/-6 threshold, you should be 6-0 ATT (Against The Total) with an UNDER play on 47.5 tonight on the BUF/NE game.

My numbers below. System Total Prediction in ( ):

MIA/ATL (30) play UNDER 43.5 - WIN
JAX/IND (30) play UNDER 44.5 - WIN
DAL/TB (46) play OVER 39 - WIN
KC/BAL (47) play OVER 36 - WIN
DET/NO (59.5) play OVER 49 - WIN
STL/SEA (34.5) play UNDER 41.5 - WIN
BUF/NE (36.5) play UNDER 47.5 - PENDING

Common sense says this is more of a coincidence than anything since it is based on preseason numbers, but FYI anyway...
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MikeOxbig · Sep 14, 2009

MIA/ATL (30) play UNDER 43.5 - WIN
JAX/IND (30) play UNDER 44.5 - WIN
DAL/TB (46) play OVER 39 - WIN
KC/BAL (47) play OVER 36 - WIN
DET/NO (59.5) play OVER 49 - WIN
STL/SEA (34.5) play UNDER 41.5 - WIN
BUF/NE (36.5) play UNDER 47.5 - LOSS

Well, the UNDER should have hit on the Buffalo/NE game. 24-13 Bills with 5 minutes left. Let the Pats carve you up and give up a touchdown, and then Captain Dipshit decides it would be a good idea to run the kick off out of the end zone and then fumble it. Pats recover. Another TD. Total blown.

Oh well. 6-1 ATT not a bad start.

See y'all next week.

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