ACE-ACE/Samy/Jackal Over-Under System

[TheJackal]

You will need to compare notes with Samy then. He was doing it by hand and posting plays in one of Ace's threads. You can certainly look up the documented plays in those threads. When I stepped in I automated it in a sheet (just prior to creating this thread) and added the 'all 3 match' plays by doing the def and avg calcs.

 

[SamyFarhaJr]

even though the league average wont change that much if you use 370 or 375 like you mentioned the single team averages do play a role. One team can put up 800 yds one week then the next week they can only put up 400 yds this wont change the league average by that much but when the two teams play each other it will obviously play a role. Unless you have the exact yards for a team during a certain week you wont be able to backtrack it using todays yds since the numbers will be different.

 

[sportspickssystem]

I have all the stats in a database so it won't be a problem to calculate the league average. I didn't do it because it doesn't make much of a difference. I'll try to find Ace's posts so I can check the previous plays.

 

[springs]

baseball system

best system in nfl ready to show in baseball system

 

[eeks]

best system in nfl ready to show in baseball system

is there a system by these guys for baseball????
i just found this on so i sure hope so

 

[kidsmissy]

bump. hope we make some money with the system this season..

 

[fabfive]

bump. hope we make some money with the system this season..

I'm sure this system will be successful. Ace/Sam/Jack did a great job with this. I wonder what is the first week this system should be implemented?

 

[TheJackal]

Dusted off the sheet. It is in good working order. We can start posting as early as week 2 but honestly it probably will not have a good set of data until week 4 or 5.

 

[goblue12]

Great work guys.

You think this same type of system works for yardage differential when betting on the spread?

 

[TheSaint]

bump

 

[goblue12]

I got these as "plays" in college football if we are using last years data...

Minnesota - Syracuse Under
LSU - Washington Under
Stanford - Washington State Under
San Diego State - UCLA Under
Western Kentucky - Tennessee Under

 

[ACE-ACE]

I got these as "plays" in college football if we are using last years data...

Minnesota - Syracuse Under
LSU - Washington Under
Stanford - Washington State Under
San Diego State - UCLA Under
Western Kentucky - Tennessee Under

if you base it on last year by itself..I feel Washst under 56 would be the best edge....but...what does last year have to do with this year stats....we need a few weeks to build this year stats

 

[Serenity]

First you need to find the total avg yds for all of the teams. That week it was 44,742 and divide by 120 (teams) = 372.9 yds In Aces formula this number is always constant at 325 yds but for college changes each week (it will usually be between 370-375). Now we want to get total yds for each team.

Thanks for sharing your system guys!

One question about the total average yards. Is it the total average yards for the previous week only or for the season (but updated each week)? Thanks!

 

[ACE-ACE]

Thanks for sharing your system guys!

One question about the total average yards. Is it the total average yards for the previous week only or for the season (but updated each week)? Thanks!

Seasond1g1t

 

[goblue12]

if you base it on last year by itself..I feel Washst under 56 would be the best edge....but...what does last year have to do with this year stats....we need a few weeks to build this year stats

I'm assuming that Week 4 or 5 is the magic week? Every team plays 3-4 games by that time, which gives you a decent indication on who will be good and who will be bad.

 

[Steiner69eR]

is this still in tact with ACE busy with his contests?

 

[TheJackal]

is this still in tact with ACE busy with his contests?

Yup

 

[TheJackal]

Here's how I will manage this thread this year, and Samy is more than welcome to chime in since he is a partner in this.

I will post week 1 plays based on LAST YEAR'S STATS. Those plays will not be counted in the record (duh) but I will give them to those who are interested. I will also post plays each week including weeks 2 and 3 but 'official' plays will commence week 4. While I won't count 'preseason' plays in the record, I will keep track of the $$ won or lost. I think we'll just make it a progression. Week 1 will be 1 unit plays, week 2 will be 2 units, week 3 will be 3 units... week 4 will start the 'regular' season. regular season plays will likely be 5 units each (I mayt adjust for 'all 3' plays).

Samy, Ace, thoughts?

 

[ACE-ACE]

Here's how I will manage this thread this year, and Samy is more than welcome to chime in since he is a partner in this.

I will post week 1 plays based on LAST YEAR'S STATS. Those plays will not be counted in the record (duh) but I will give them to those who are interested. I will also post plays each week including weeks 2 and 3 but 'official' plays will commence week 4. While I won't count 'preseason' plays in the record, I will keep track of the $$ won or lost. I think we'll just make it a progression. Week 1 will be 1 unit plays, week 2 will be 2 units, week 3 will be 3 units... week 4 will start the 'regular' season. regular season plays will likely be 5 units each (I mayt adjust for 'all 3' plays).

Samy, Ace, thoughts?

I will help every way I can by e-mail to you...this is a good plan until week 4...than we have alot of stats to make it better....we dont know how it will work with the 1-3 week....but the only one I'm betting on in totals this week is
Washvs LSU under 55.5 Under for $300

 

[Inv1ctus]

The total for this game is 53.5 no? Or do you mean Washington St - Stanford? GL in your contest btw!