Hi, Broncos.
I'm a premium member of Accuscore, and I've got their spreadsheet that shows the results for the entire season. You happened to start using your system in late February I believe, and it has been performing at about a 60% clip during your sample size. Typically, a line difference of at least 2.5 points from the Accuscore line will give you the "60%" threshold (according to their numbers). However, for the entire season, it's running at about 52.5%. If you eliminate all home favorites above -5.5, it is about 54% for the season. For some reason, Accuscore tends to pick a lot of big home favorites.
Another interesting thing I've noticed is that a bigger disparity in the Accuscore line vs. the actual line doesn't necessarily translate into a higher winning percentage.
I would exercise extreme caution in using them for early season baseball games. By their own admission, they've had losing Aprils in each of the past three seasons, although their end of the season records have shown profits.
I think Accuscore is a valuable tool, but I just wanted to point out that you've got a fairly small sample size. I'll be happy to e-mail you their spreadsheet for your perusal if you're interested.
Good luck to you.
In lieu of what I initially deemed best, broncos is not using the system as in simply betting whenever accuscore shows the slightest amount of advantage. I have to admit I was sceptical about this, simply because accuscore does the work and should really know best... Lucky for all of us though he didn't listen to me
and now, in spite of the apparently horrible April the so far always had, it is doing fairly well -- very well even before today which was (if I remember correctly) the first real losing day.and yes, I've always found it strange that a greater difference between the given line and the accuscore-line does not per sé lead to a bigger winning percentage.
Either way, his Baseball-thread is here: http://www.therxfourm.com/showthread.php?t=675290
[not counting today yet the ytd-record for baseball is 12-9 (+9.94 units) which is certainly above the expectancy with the normally bad Aprils]
In lieu of what I initially deemed best, broncos is not using the system as in simply betting whenever accuscore shows the slightest amount of advantage. I have to admit I was sceptical about this, simply because accuscore does the work and should really know best... Lucky for all of us though he didn't listen to me
and yes, I've always found it strange that a greater difference between the given line and the accuscore-line does not per sé lead to a bigger winning percentage.
Either way, his Baseball-thread is here: http://www.therxfourm.com/showthread.php?t=675290
[not counting today yet the ytd-record for baseball is 12-9 (+9.94 units) which is certainly above the expectancy with the normally bad Aprils]
Absolutely correct. I am not simply taking all of Accuscore's plays and posting them. I have selected the plays with the most value. And as my MLB system outlines, I have really gone into depth with my analysis as to how to use Accuscore most effectively.
Broncos, I'm glad to hear that the baseball betting is off to a good start for you.
As I pointed out, the Accuscore "60% or better plays" in the NBA is a tad under 53% for the entire season, although you fortunately started using it in February, where it's been running a bit over 60% during that time. Another thing that I've noticed about the NBA is that Accuscore is superb whenever the line is between +3.5 and -3.5. When you start getting outside of those numbers, its accuracy tails off considerably. For home favorites over -5.5, Accuscore is only hitting about 46% of the time for the entire season with their plays in the "60% or better" category.
Good luck with the baseball season!
Where do they track individual % like that? I only see total % w/L, not a breakdown by %. I have the big package as well and can't find that anywhere. And do they actually have a breakdown for every % or is it broken down into categories? Like I said, I searched everywhere and didn't see anything that said something like "for all plays valued at 60% or better, we are hitting at x%" So if its only 46% for the season, that would mean it hit under 40% for the time before I began tracking? Is that right? Thanks.
And believe me, I absolutely understand that one solid week does not make a season. However, as Accuscore themselves have said, they have never had a winning April/May so it is a good sign that with one week down, I am up a decent amount (Cubs pending). I'm hoping that for MLB, I really have found something. After a month or so, I think I'll have a good idea as to whether or not we can make money with this.
If you've got their "Winner's Edge" package, go to the "Daily Line Reports", and you'll see downloadable spreadsheets for all of their performances in every sport. For the NBA, they don't have it broken down into the individual percentages that you see on the daily "Live Betting Predictions". However, they do have every game of the season broken down with the Vegas line and the Accuscore line. For the NBA, I took a look at all of the Accuscore lines that had at least a 3 point difference between the Vegas line (which seems to about the threshold for their 60% range). I did notice that the "60% system" is deadly accurate (in the high 60's) for games where the Vegas line is between +3.5 and -3.5, but it actually loses money when you get out of that pointspread range. They actually had some insight into why larger favorites and dogs don't perform as well as those that fall into the 3.5 to -3.5 range. You might want to keep that in mind for next year.
Thanks for the work that you've done. I'm sure there are many folks who appreciate it.
hey bronco...i did some fruther analysis on your pick.
regarding your orlando under. accuscore and vegas differ by 4.5 points, and accuscore is right 55% in those situations. accuscore selections in orlando totals is just 54% when they are on the road. whereas o/u selections bucks home games are are 62%. so that 60% is sustainable through the other trends.
i am concerned on the minnesota pick and will pass on it. the simualation and the line differ by 6.5 points, and accuscore is 48% in that scenario and they are just 52% when totals are between 200.5 and 205. accuscore o/u selections in minnesota away games are 47% and their o/u selections in dallas home games is 61%. still i dont see consistency here and know that this game involves one team that has clinched and another is out. i think the 62% forecast for the game is unrealiable.
in the suns game, the sim and line differ by 2.5 points and accuscore is 51% in that situation. they are just 47% when the home team is favored by 8 or more. accuscore ats selections in suns home games are 57% but their ats selection in memphis road games are 45%. also the suns are benching people and their customer support says new sims are coming.
golden state was hitting abnormally high in totals and have dropped a few in the accuscore sims. where they were once 84% in home golden state o/u selections, they are now 79%. the stats might be correcting themsevls. still, i LOVE this game bronco. sim and line differ by 5 and they are 55% in that scenaario. 60% when the total is over 210. 79% in o/u selections when g-state is at home and 62% when the spurs on the road. thanks for the tip on this one. i hadnt noticed it.
regarding your orlando under. accuscore and vegas differ by 4.5 points, and accuscore is right 55% in those situations. accuscore selections in orlando totals is just 54% when they are on the road. whereas o/u selections bucks home games are are 62%. so that 60% is sustainable through the other trends.
i am concerned on the minnesota pick and will pass on it. the simualation and the line differ by 6.5 points, and accuscore is 48% in that scenario and they are just 52% when totals are between 200.5 and 205. accuscore o/u selections in minnesota away games are 47% and their o/u selections in dallas home games is 61%. still i dont see consistency here and know that this game involves one team that has clinched and another is out. i think the 62% forecast for the game is unrealiable.
in the suns game, the sim and line differ by 2.5 points and accuscore is 51% in that situation. they are just 47% when the home team is favored by 8 or more. accuscore ats selections in suns home games are 57% but their ats selection in memphis road games are 45%. also the suns are benching people and their customer support says new sims are coming.
golden state was hitting abnormally high in totals and have dropped a few in the accuscore sims. where they were once 84% in home golden state o/u selections, they are now 79%. the stats might be correcting themsevls. still, i LOVE this game bronco. sim and line differ by 5 and they are 55% in that scenaario. 60% when the total is over 210. 79% in o/u selections when g-state is at home and 62% when the spurs on the road. thanks for the tip on this one. i hadnt noticed it.
Accuscore +%60 Predictions work better in Totals. Therefore, I recommend to focus on Totals.
In addition, you can buy Accuscore Predictions for only 39.99$/Year. Just buy Insider (Real Time Scores) and you'll be able to track Accuscore predictions for baseball, basketball and football for free
In addition, you can buy Accuscore Predictions for only 39.99$/Year. Just buy Insider (Real Time Scores) and you'll be able to track Accuscore predictions for baseball, basketball and football for free
