ACC Week 4

[jimmyshivers]

* North Carolina State Wolfpack -1


Keeping this one simple and going with the better qb, coach and HFA. Not much is known about this team yeah except that they struggled offensively against a USC team that looks better and better each week. They took 2 weeks to play 1-AA teams and blew them both out (110-21 aggregate score) so the offense should be confident.

I have a difficult time seeing Pitt with any offensive juice in this game. NCS is strongest defensively up front and they will play it like everyone will this year and try to make Pitt beat them with their Stull. I see the Wolfpack struggling to run the ball as well against a physical Pitt front, but the difference will be the ability of QB Wilson to make plays downfield as well as with his feet. NCS struggled mightily with the speed of USC and though Pitt has a tough, talented defense; you would be hard pressed to call the Panthers athletic on that side.

Pitt will have an advantage on the ground game here over NCS, but IMO it's not enough to counteract the advantage State has in the passing game. The numbers for bit are misleading because they played a running team in Navy and a I-AA team, but they allowed Buffalo to throw all over them to the tune of 433 yards and 4 scores. Wolfpack are a rhythm passing team and if Wilson gets time he has made a career out of making smart decisions with the football (25-1 TD pass to INT ratio) and keeping the ball safe. I like to back teams that are more likely to win the turnover battle.


I think were getting some line value here with the Wolfpack as their only appearance was an anemic display and they are catching a Pitt team traveling before the start of conference play. Pitt struggled mightily on the road @ Buffalo defensively and if we see the same struggles in the secondary here it will be a long day for the Panthers. NCS by 6

May have 1 or 2 more but I'm close to finishing the card out for the week..

 

[GoSooners]

Jimmy...I like your card this week. The only one I'm not sure about is Miami/VT. I don't think any of us are for sure about that one. I was seriously thinking about taking South Florida for the same reason as you. A good letdown spot for FSU. I like UNC too. GT is going to run into the same problems they did last week vs Miami. Too much UNC team speed on defense. BOL this week.:toast:

 

[VoiceofReason101]

To elaborate, I am seeing a ton of parity in the conference again, as everyone has flaws. No one will run the table and once again there won't be an ACC team in the Title hunt this year. Think Miami sets up potentially nicely for next year but they aren't ready yet.:

1. Miami - Not sold that they are the best team, but the most impressive so far. Need to see a strong effort this weekend in a hostile environment (with the national spotlight all over them) before I will be sold.

2. Va Tech - Hokies have strong running game and good defense but need to show some improvement in both their run-defense and passing offense. Taylor has not developed like they hoped he would and this team is hamstrung by him until them.

3. FSU - think this might be the best offense in the conference if they can get more consistent running game play but we need to see more consistent defensive effort before they can climb the ladder.

4. Heels - a dominant offense and a talented yet young offense has them @ 4. By the end of the season if the offense comes around this team is going to be capable of beating anyone they play. Until the offense (and the line in particular) comes around they will struggle with the more dynamic teams.

5. Clemson - Think we definitely start to see a drop off here. Tigers have very strong D and some serious speed on offense but the Line is looking a little shakey and the QB play has been underwhelming so far. If parker grows into the offense they will be very scary in november but right now they are missing something.


6. GT - This team got it done last year with the option and a defense that could put them in good field position. This year the O isnt providing big plays and the defense has not given them the ability to control games. There making some changes this week and I'll be interested to see the demeanor in the game with Carolina this weekend.

7. NCS - I put them here because we don't know shit about them yet. Need to see better line play and receivers who can catch a ball. Think they will be fine but we'll know a lot more about the after Saturday.

8. Wake - Don't think the D is good enough to support this mediocre offense. There better than the bottom 4 because of experience and game planning. Skinner is very average and if the defense doesn't give them the field position that they usually do every year they will struggle to score points.

9. BC - Another big drop-off here. BC isn't going anywhere this season but the D is going to keep them in some games. The offense is terrible right now.

10. Duke - Improving but still bad. Another building year for the Devils

11. :howdy: Goodbye Al

12. :howdy: Goodbye Ralph.

Let me play devils advocate as I love to do haha:

First point you make "all teams have weaknesses" but doesn't this apply to all teams:

1) Florida: Midget playmakers, good O-Line can run on the them
2) USC: Green QB's, poor play calling, fragile play maker, etc.
3) Alabama: Support for Julio, untested secondary.
4) Ole miss: see Thursday night
etc.

I have 2) FSU over VTech: Better QB, play makers, better O-Line, as good or if not better run defense.

4) Right now Clemson over UNC: Better QB IMHO, better playmakers (Spiller and Ford), and defense are about even in my opinion. Both have dominant front 4's with secondaries which can be exposed (see Miami games for both).

Rest is dead on. Your the man and will turn this around :toast:

 

[jimmyshivers]

Let me play devils advocate as I love to do haha:

First point you make "all teams have weaknesses" but doesn't this apply to all teams:

1) Florida: Midget playmakers, good O-Line can run on the them
2) USC: Green QB's, poor play calling, fragile play maker, etc.
3) Alabama: Support for Julio, untested secondary.
4) Ole miss: see Thursday night
etc.

I have 2) FSU over VTech: Better QB, play makers, better O-Line, as good or if not better run defense.

4) Right now Clemson over UNC: Better QB IMHO, better playmakers (Spiller and Ford), and defense are about even in my opinion. Both have dominant front 4's with secondaries which can be exposed (see Miami games for both).

Rest is dead on. Your the man and will turn this around :toast:

VOR,

I agree with what you said about FSU for the most part. The part that puts VT over FSU for me is going to be their ability to stay disciplined and focused each week. I do feel that FSU has better athletes at most places than VT but until they show me a week-in week-out lunch pail mentality I think there going to struggle. You will see them up for the big in-state teams (or anyone with a number in front of their name) but I would bet right now that they lose a game to someone who I have @ 5-8 on that list. Not sure I would make the same wager with VT..

As to Carolina I actually rate their defense a tad stronger than Clemson, especially with the front 7. I think there a more physical group that is going to make everyone play physically. Clemson is fast but I need to see some more physicality from them. Big chance to show that on Saturday IMO. Also like the exp @ QB, I think Yates made some progress last week (remember he was a decent qb for the first half of last season before getting hurt and was terrible upon his return)

And yes everyone has weaknesses. I guess I was trying to say that no one in this conference is going to run away with it again this year. ACC hasn't had a team run the conference slate since FSU in 2000, the longest streak in the D1-A. Obviously some teams are more weaker than others. Good luck this weekend bro glad to see some of our plays match up.

:toast:

 

[jimmyshivers]

Jimmy...I like your card this week. The only one I'm not sure about is Miami/VT. I don't think any of us are for sure about that one. I was seriously thinking about taking South Florida for the same reason as you. A good letdown spot for FSU. I like UNC too. GT is going to run into the same problems they did last week vs Miami. Too much UNC team speed on defense. BOL this week.:toast:

Like you said GS, no one is sure about that one. I had to take a small stab @ the ML because to me its a +EV play. VT finds a way to win this game in this spot more often than not so the ML has value to me. BOL in a bounceback weekend.

 

[nd2000]

* South Florida Bulls +14

Let down spot here for the Noles. Offense looked real good last week but the defense got some breaks early and BYU was not sharp. FSU lately hasn't had the program discipline to come out and win this kind of game and cover the number. USF lost their QB but Daniels the back-up is an athlete as well (and hes a home-town kid here in Tallahassee) and often after a big injury teams rally around the new guy and play inspired. IMO USF has athletes all over and is actually a better match-up for FSU than BYU was. Its also a little-brother situation for the Bulls as many of these guys are from in-state and will be fired up to go after one of the big-time Florida schools. FSU has the talent to cover this line but my experience with this progam tells me they lay a mini-egg here and win a close game in a rather large let down spot for this undisciplined team.

I am waiting to unload on USF when they play Cincinnati on a Thursday night ESPN game at home in a couple weeks. Let's give the new QB a couple of games under his belt and you know USF will be the dog in that game because Cincinnati is likely to blow their next two opponents out and be ranked in the top 10. USF definitely has the talent to pull the upset there. Playing on the road at Florida State with a new QB though? That scares me, especially since Leavitt is a bad coach for USF.

 

[jimmyshivers]

I am waiting to unload on USF when they play Cincinnati on a Thursday night ESPN game at home in a couple weeks. Let's give the new QB a couple of games under his belt and you know USF will be the dog in that game because Cincinnati is likely to blow their next two opponents out and be ranked in the top 10. USF definitely has the talent to pull the upset there. Playing on the road at Florida State with a new QB though? That scares me, especially since Leavitt is a bad coach for USF.

USF has a lot of talent for sure; they get plenty of good players in-state. While Leavitt has done wonders for the program in general he usually costs them a game or 2 that are winnable. Losing Groethe is a big blow as he really was the offense but everything I'm seeing has this staff pretty high on Daniels (even b4 the injury). Classic let-down spot here for FSU for what has been in reality a pretty up-and-down program this decade.

Cincy has looked awfully good but USF has enough talent and depth to hang tight with most teams. I'll keep an eye out for that one.

 

[jimmyshivers]

Final Card:

*** TCU +3
** UNC +3
** Va Tech / Miami U 47.5
*VT ML +125
*USF +14
*NCS -1

Adding:
** UMD +1
* BC -1.5

Good luck everybody

 

[jimmyshivers]

16-14 -2.75 units

Played the card small this weekend but I had a strong card. 6-2 always works and I feel now that I've seen everyone play 2x I have a good read on every team. I will kill it next week.

Projected lines:

FSU -5.5 @ BC

Ou -6.5 @ Miami

Clemson -6 @ Maryland

VT -10.5 @ Duke

UVA @ UNC -8.5

NCS -2 @ Wake

GT -7? @ MSU

not sure about that last one, I havent seen MSU play. But it looks like a lot of road favs next week in the ACC. The home dogs next week show the conference for the parity that it is IMO. At these lines Duke and Wake especially jump out as strong plays and Wake may have POY potential..

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Was hoping for FSU -4, like that game, and I agree Wake looks really good next week. Need to look into Duke more but in no way anyone should play VTECH.