Not sure Fl St is a great pick. Tonight is senior night at Cameron indoor. Paulus last game and the emotions will be running high. I agree they don't match up with Fl St but they can out smart them. Just thought i would add it. Just another angle to look at this one. I watch every Duke game and at first sight the world would pick Fl St. Classic fade game for me....Best of luck capping....Toon67
I'm with you on Fla St. tonight Jimmy. Senior night shouldn't make too much of a difference since Cameron Indoor is always turned up to 11. FSU has been playing mean ball lately and as others have said, Duke is still overrated.
I'll be curious to see what you think about the UVA/Clemson game tonight. Obviously we've seen UVA handle Clemson at home, but I still think that was a bit of a fluke. However, my Cavs are still 6-3 ATS on the road (5-2 in the last 7). I like the +14.5 points here as we've been able to hang in there in most of the road games this season. Also, this team has made some huge improvements since the start of ACC play, is playing their best ball of the season now, and still isn't getting the respect for it in terms of the spread. Small play on UVA +14.5 for me.
I'll be curious to see what you think about the UVA/Clemson game tonight. Obviously we've seen UVA handle Clemson at home, but I still think that was a bit of a fluke. However, my Cavs are still 6-3 ATS on the road (5-2 in the last 7). I like the +14.5 points here as we've been able to hang in there in most of the road games this season. Also, this team has made some huge improvements since the start of ACC play, is playing their best ball of the season now, and still isn't getting the respect for it in terms of the spread. Small play on UVA +14.5 for me.
I really like Fla St here too, but senior night in durham and a shot at the acc title on the line have me wondering. It might sound silly, but if the last few games are any indication, I think the refs could play a serious role in the outcome of the game if it's close at the end. I'm no conspiracy theorist, but some of the calls/missed calls lately have been mind boggling...plus it's senior night, so they'll get the help when needed. Hopefully, it will remain close so that it's not an issue.
Good to see some discussion of this game tonight. The refs could play a factor in who wins but if FSU can't cover the 12 it is pretty tough to blame it on the refs. Also forgot to mention the obvious fact that this is a potential look-ahead game for the Dukies, as they travel to Carolina on the weekend.
I don't buy the reverse line movement stuff, I think usually people think a line is too good to be true because there isn't enough information accessible to them. I have to think Vegas and the bookmakers are aware of how many people cap games based on funky lines and they now play into that. For example, the bookmakers might be able to draw more action onto Duke at -12 than they would of @ -9 because people feel they are being suckered in @ + 12 on the dog when the line should be lower in their minds. Just a thought..
I have plays on the other games coming shortly, but I have been swamped in the lab today..
I don't buy the reverse line movement stuff, I think usually people think a line is too good to be true because there isn't enough information accessible to them. I have to think Vegas and the bookmakers are aware of how many people cap games based on funky lines and they now play into that. For example, the bookmakers might be able to draw more action onto Duke at -12 than they would of @ -9 because people feel they are being suckered in @ + 12 on the dog when the line should be lower in their minds. Just a thought..
I have plays on the other games coming shortly, but I have been swamped in the lab today..
**** Virginia Cavaliers +14.5
*** Under 147
No drawn out write-up here but I like the Cavs getting this big number. Clemson is definately struggling right now in conference play and expecting them to cover a big number going against a team that has really improved over the last month is a tall task. UVA beat this team straight up last month and has been playing more competitive basketball ever since.
The downfall of the Tigers has been their lapse of the defense. Over the last 5 games the Tiger trap has fallen apart (1.11 Assist/TO ratio allowed) and teams are getting and making alot of open looks (46% from the field and 48% from 3 over the same span). Virginia has improved alot defensively (.72 A/TO ratio and 43 % defensive fg shooting). I like the way that the Cavs are able to shut down the passing lanes. Against a team like Wake that loves to drive the basket they often found themselves with no where to go.
Both teams are better defensively than offensively so I expect the under to be a strong play too. The total is set for an 80-66 game, and I think the Tigers will have a harder time breaking 70. 68-61 Clemson
*** Under 147
No drawn out write-up here but I like the Cavs getting this big number. Clemson is definately struggling right now in conference play and expecting them to cover a big number going against a team that has really improved over the last month is a tall task. UVA beat this team straight up last month and has been playing more competitive basketball ever since.
The downfall of the Tigers has been their lapse of the defense. Over the last 5 games the Tiger trap has fallen apart (1.11 Assist/TO ratio allowed) and teams are getting and making alot of open looks (46% from the field and 48% from 3 over the same span). Virginia has improved alot defensively (.72 A/TO ratio and 43 % defensive fg shooting). I like the way that the Cavs are able to shut down the passing lanes. Against a team like Wake that loves to drive the basket they often found themselves with no where to go.
Both teams are better defensively than offensively so I expect the under to be a strong play too. The total is set for an 80-66 game, and I think the Tigers will have a harder time breaking 70. 68-61 Clemson
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** Duke/FSU U 139
*** Maryland +2
No time for write-ups for these but Maryland needs this game more and Wake still looks lost @ sea on the road. Think both Duke and FSU defenses are better than the offenses and this one should be a grudge match.
I will likely be out for most of the night (and maybe all night :drink
so lets hope that this card holds up tonight like I think it will.
Best of luck to everyone on their action tonight
*** Maryland +2
No time for write-ups for these but Maryland needs this game more and Wake still looks lost @ sea on the road. Think both Duke and FSU defenses are better than the offenses and this one should be a grudge match.
I will likely be out for most of the night (and maybe all night :drink
so lets hope that this card holds up tonight like I think it will. Best of luck to everyone on their action tonight
hno: Didnt see that one coming!! Atleast we got the under in the Duke game and I think MD wins this one with ease. GL with your plays as always!!
