AC soccer for 2016

[achandicap]

Last Guy: Didn't see this until just now. I had Juventus at a slight advantage, but not enough to bet.

SUNDAY
ENGLAND
Liverpool -.5 -119/Aston Villa, 1 unit

ITALY
Torino PK -136/Palermo, 1 unit
Fiorentina/Inter DRAW +235, 1 unit

 

[achandicap]

No Champs League plays today, but there is one Europa League match and I have some futures for Champs and Europa. Libertadores coming this afternoon.

EUROPA
Lokomotiv Moscow +1 -125/Fenerbahce, 1 unit

TO WIN... (1 unit each)
CHAMPS
Atletico Madrid +1200
Manchester City +1800

EUROPA
Napoli +830
Shakhtar Donetsk +3450
Olympiakos +4850

 

[achandicap]

LIBERTADORES
Tachira/Olimpia DRAW +224, 1 unit
Santa Fe/Cerro Porteno O2 -117, 1 unit

Record: 41.5-46.5, +12.43

 

[achandicap]

WEDNESDAY
CHAMPS
Gent/Wolfsburg DRAW +238, 1 unit

Record: 41.5-48.5, +10.26

 

[achandicap]

LIBERTADORES
Sao Paulo -2 +122/The Strongest, 2 units
Toluca -.5 +101/Gremio, 1 unit

 

[achandicap]

THURSDAY
EARLY EUROPA
Olympiakos PK +103/Anderlecht, 2 units
Sevilla -2 -117/Molde, 2 units
Villarreal/Napoli DRAW +235, 1 unit

 

[achandicap]

LATE EUROPA (+TO ADVANCE)
Fiorentina to advance +122/Tottenham, 1 unit
Augsburg +.5 -106/Liverpool, 1 unit
Galatasaray/Lazio DRAW +237, 1 unit
Marseille PK +102/Athletico Bilbao, 2 units
Marseille to advance +165/Bilbao, 1 unit
Shakhtar to advance +125/Schalke, 2 units
Krasnodar to advance -135/Sparta Prague, 2 units
Sporting/Leverkusen DRAW +238, 1 unit
Sporting to advance +142/Leverkusen, 1 unit
Rapid Vienna +.5 +109/Valencia, 1 unit

LIBERTADORES
Sporting Cristal/Penarol DRAW +228, 1 unit
Pumas -.5 -110/Emelec, 2 units

Record: 42.5-50.5, +8.27

 

[achandicap]

SATURDAY
ENGLAND (FA CUP)
Everton to win up +1550 (hedging the Bournmouth to win bet), 1 unit

ITALY
Verona PK -131/Chievo, 1 unit

Record: 47.5-55.5, +10.92

 

[MAJORK]

Hi AC, did you get a chance to look at scores yesterday.. So many draws across different countries.. Weird how it always happens in waves.. I thinking about changing my outlook on plays and adding more draws.. Any insight at what you look at for potential draw picks? BOL this weekend!

 

[achandicap]

MajorK: My draw picks are based on a number of variables. First, I match my power rating against the line. The more my line is OFF the Vegas line, the more I play. I assume Vegas knows more than my non-variable projections. So if my non-variable line says "X" and Vegas says "X-80," I say Vegas knows more than the basic line and I bet with the Vegas correction. Second, if Vegas is a pick or -.25 and my line agrees, then the draw is possible. Then I look at the total. The more likely the total is to finish at 2, the more likely I play a draw. Bottom line, there's a lot of variables. But at +200 and better, you only need one of every three draw to hit to make money. Most draws are +210 to +240, so a 33 percent win percentage is manageable. It's the big reason that I can win money while hitting less than 50 percent.

SUNDAY
ENGLAND (FA CUP)
Tottenham -1 +102/Crystal Palace, 1 unit

ITALY
Fiorentina -.5 +117/Atalanta, 1 unit
Lazio -.5 -132/Frosinone, 5 units

 

[MAJORK]

MajorK: My draw picks are based on a number of variables. First, I match my power rating against the line. The more my line is OFF the Vegas line, the more I play. I assume Vegas knows more than my non-variable projections. So if my non-variable line says "X" and Vegas says "X-80," I say Vegas knows more than the basic line and I bet with the Vegas correction. Second, if Vegas is a pick or -.25 and my line agrees, then the draw is possible. Then I look at the total. The more likely the total is to finish at 2, the more likely I play a draw. Bottom line, there's a lot of variables. But at +200 and better, you only need one of every three draw to hit to make money. Most draws are +210 to +240, so a 33 percent win percentage is manageable. It's the big reason that I can win money while hitting less than 50 percent.

SUNDAY
ENGLAND (FA CUP)
Tottenham -1 +102/Crystal Palace, 1 unit

ITALY
Fiorentina -.5 +117/Atalanta, 1 unit
Lazio -.5 -132/Frosinone, 5 units

Thanks AC for the response! Much appreciated! BOL this week!

 

[achandicap]

That Lazio match Sunday was costly. But we're still in positive numbers, and Italy is doing well overall. No Champs League plays today, but might have Libertadores later. And eventually I should have Colombian plays. Their schedule has been full of postponements and other oddities, so it's been hard to make the usual numbers.

Record: 49.5-59.5, +3.49

 

[achandicap]

TUESDAY
LIBERTADORES
LDU Quito -.5 +101/San Lorenzo, 1 unit
Huracan/Atletico Nacional DRAW +204, 1 unit

 

[achandicap]

CHAMPS
Dinamo Kiev +.5 -130/Manchester City, 2 units

LIBERTADORES
Racing/Bolivar U2.5 +114, 3 units
Deportivo Cali PK +126/Boca Juniors, 2 units
Atletico MG -1.5 +110/Ind. da Valle, 3 units

Record: 50.5-60.5, +3.50

 

[achandicap]

Bad day Wednesday. Let's see if we can bounce back with Europa. First match is 8 a.m.

EUROPA (early games)
Lokomotiv Moscow/Fenebahce DRAW +230, 1 unit
Augsburg +1.25 -106/Liverpool, 2 units
Rapid Vienna/Valencia DRAW +263, 1 unit
Shakhtar +.5 +120/Schalke, 2 units

 

[achandicap]

EUROPA (LATE)
Porto +.5 -124/Dortmund, 1 unit
Midtjylland +1.5 +121/Manchester United, 1 unit
Napoli -1 +117/Villarreal, 1 unit

Record: 50.5-63.5, -5.11

 

[lastguyoffthabench]

I'm on Midtjylland as well with hopes that united rolls out with a weak XI as they have Arsenal on Sunday

also on Napoli but -160


GL, AC!

 

[achandicap]

Lastguy: That Napoli -160 bet hurts, and that's why I don't play big odds like that. It only takes a few to really dwindle the bankroll.

SATURDAY
Southampton/Chelsea DRAW +231, 1 unit
Watford/Bournemouth DRAW +178, 2 units (shocking how low this is)
West Brom/Crystal Palace DRAW +214, 1 unit

Maybe some Colombian in the morning.

 

[achandicap]

COLOMBIA
Chico -.5 -101/Fortaleza, 1 unit
Atletico Nacional +.25 +106/Once Caldes, 1 unit

 

[achandicap]

I'm riding two units of Manchester City +400 to win the Cap One Cup from earlier in the year. The Liverpool bet is a hedge to guarantee a profit.

ENGLAND (Cap One)
Liverpool to win +130, 2 units

ENGLAND
Manchester United/Arsenal DRAW +222, 1 unit
Tottenham -1 -126/Swansea, 2 units

ITALY
Palermo/Bologna DRAW +226, 2 units
Carpi -.25 +105/Atalanta, 2 units
Genoa PK -131/Chievo, 2 units
Udinese -.5 +105/Verona, 2 units