AC soccer for 2014

[EasyPicks]

rough night yesterday!

better luck today!

 

[achandicap]

ENGLAND
Everton -1 -115/West Ham, 2 units
Arsenal -1 +135/Stoke, 1 unit

COLOMBIA
Fortaleza +.25 +117/La Equidad, 2 units
Chico PK -147/Patriotas, 2 units
Chico -.5 +134/Patriotas, 2 units (essentially betting -.25)

Record: 70-51, +34.51

 

[achandicap]

Another bad day, and a scary list of games for Sunday. I threw out a couple matches, but still have a large card. Beware...

ENGLAND
Aston Villa -.5 +107/Norwich, 1 unit
Swansea -.5 -120/Crystal Palace, 1 unit
Tottenham -1.5 +107/Cardiff City, 3 units

ITALY
Cagliari/Udinese DRAW +214, 2 units
Sassuolo +.5 -128/Parma, 1 unit
Torino -.5 -112/Sampdoria, 1 unit
Juventus -.5 -106/Milan, 4 units

COLOMBIA
Itagui/Envigado DRAW +227, 1 unit
Petrolero/Once Caldes DRAW +222, 1 unit

Record: 70.5-54, +29.74

 

[achandicap]

Yep, had a bad feeling about Sunday...

TUESDAY
COLOMBIA
Atletico Nacional -1.5 -133/Autonoma, 3 units

Record: 72.5-60, +24.21

 

[achandicap]

THURSDAY
COLOMBIA
Tolima PK -111/Santa Fe, 1 unit

Record: 73.5-60, +27.21

 

[achandicap]

SATURDAY
ENGLAND
Chelsea -1 +103/Tottenham, 1 unit

ITALY
Udinese/Milan DRAW +232, 2 units
Catania/Cagliari DRAW +229, 2 units

Record: 73.5-60, +27.21

 

[EasyPicks]

very nice picks! nice hit on Catania Draw

 

[achandicap]

Those draws are pretty profitable when the numbers are right. I found I need to bet two units to really make them work. The loss/reward on them is really good at +200 or better.

SUNDAY
Chievo -.5 +117/Genoa, 2 units
Parma -.5 -138/Verona, 1 unit
Sampdoria -.5 -127/Livorno, 1 unit

Also riding Hull in the FA Cup.

Record: 75.5-61, +30.82

 

[EasyPicks]

clean sweep! very nice job AC!

 

[achandicap]

Can't complain about 3-0. Plus Hull wins, Man City gets knocked out and Hull avoids Arsenal in the semis.

MONDAY
COLOMBIA
Fortaleza/Deportivo Cali DRAW +200, 1 unit

Record: 78.5-61, +35.16

 

[EasyPicks]

Can't complain about 3-0. Plus Hull wins, Man City gets knocked out and Hull avoids Arsenal in the semis.

MONDAY
COLOMBIA
Fortaleza/Deportivo Cali DRAW +200, 1 unit

Record: 78.5-61, +35.16

god damn man, you are a beast!! solid work

 

[achandicap]

It amazes me how well I did in 2012, how poorly everything went in 2013, and now this. Talk about streaky. Also, no bets on Champs League this week unless Wednesday's matchups are really out of whack. I can't imagine how any of the road teams can make a dent in the overall scores, but who know how hard the home teams will try.

CONCACAF
San Jose/Toluca DRAW +231, 2 units

LIBERTADORES
Santos Laguna -.5 +109/Dep. Anzoategui, 1 unit
Emelec -.5 -102/Leon, 1 unit
Real Garcilaso/Univ. de Chile DRAW +236, 1 unit

Record: 79.5-61, +37.16

 

[achandicap]

Adding...

COLOMBIA
Junior/Millonarios DRAW +231, 1 unit

 

[nayrb23]

Question for you AC if you have the time. Earlier in the thread you mentioned you put 2 units on most Draw plays as you found that's what it took to be profitable but I noticed the last couple of days most draw plays were 1 units. Less confident in these plays or is there some other method to your madness?

Also what book do you use or most of your plays?

 

[EasyPicks]

It amazes me how well I did in 2012, how poorly everything went in 2013, and now this. Talk about streaky. Also, no bets on Champs League this week unless Wednesday's matchups are really out of whack. I can't imagine how any of the road teams can make a dent in the overall scores, but who know how hard the home teams will try.

if you don't mind me asking, what were ur records for 2012 and 2013

thx

 

[nayrb23]

Nice break for us in your big bet, as toluca gives up a goal in the 5th minute of stoppage. Congrats on the guaranteed winning night now!

 

[achandicap]

My records the last two years were:

2012: 328-304, +8.16
2013: 305-383, -85.94

Last year, once I got down abut 40 units, I quit betting personally and started tinkering with my numbers. That's the reason for the increased in the number of plays in 2013. I am a small-time bettor, obviously, to lose that many units. I'm hopeful the tinkering in 2013 is the reason 2014 started so well.

The draws are one of the things I worked on in 2013. I usually bet two units because the risk/reward is hugely in my favor, I believe, when certain scenarios occur. First, the line has to be at Pick. Second, my numbers have to also be within Pick range. If I favor a team and they're getting +.5, it's much wiser to take the +.5 in case the dog wins. When the book offers +.25 (PK, -.5) and my numbers show a draw, that's when I'll bet 1 unit. Finally, I might get off a draw bet if the total is Over 2.5 -125 or more. That says to me that even if the match is Pick, the oddsmakers think a third goal is coming somewhere. The best DRAW lines, I think, are PICK plus Over/Under at 2, like San Jose/Toluca last night. I bet international competition at lower units than national leagues because there's more data available in national leagues. My highest bet in national leagues is 5 units. In international play it's 3 units. Finally, I'm exclusively at 5Dimes.

WEDNESDAY
CONCACAF
Kansas City/Cruz Azul +222, 2 units

LIBERTADORES
Flamengo -1.5 -130/Bolivar, 1 unit
Nacional/Atletico Miniero O2.5 +117, 1 unit

COLOMBIA
Once Caldes -.75 -114/La Equidad, 5 units

Record: 81.5-64, +39.78

 

[nayrb23]

For the Once Caldes pick 5 dimes now has it at -0.75 +103 or -0.5/ML of -123 which do you think would be the better play?

 

[achandicap]

I still would have gone with Once Caldes at -.75...and at least not lost the vig as well. Bad day, but we go on.

EUROPA
Tottenham/Benfica DRAW +238, 1 unit
Fiorentina to advance +320
Salzburg to win Europa Cup +900

Possible Colombia, Libertadores and CONCACAF in the morning.

Record: 82.5-67, +31.95

 

[nayrb23]

Thankfully I forgot to make the pick as I was hoping to hear your response before the game. I guess lucky for me ha. Keep up the good picks all around though.

Assuming Fiorentina and Salzburg are 1 unit each?