AC soccer for 2013

[achandicap]

Still trying...

TUESDAY
CHAMPS
Shakhtar +1.5 +109/BATE, 1 unit
Dinamo Tbilisi -2.25 -123/Streymur, 2 units
Steaua Bucharest -2 -121/Vardar, 2 units

EUROPA
Pandurii -.75 -111/Levadia, 1 unit

Record: 129-174, -70.65

 

[achandicap]

WEDNESDAY
CHAMPS
Partizan -1 -130/Shirak, 1 unit
Skenderbeu +1.5 -128/Neftchi Baku, 2 units
Elfsborg -2.5 -101/Daugavpils, 2 units

Record: 132-175, -67.67

 

[achandicap]

WEDNESDAY
COLOMBIA
Santa Fe -.5 +103/Atletico Nacional, 1 unit

LIBERTADORES
Olimpia/Atletico Mineiro DRAW +217, 1 unit

Record: 134-176, -63.97 (updated math)

 

[achandicap]

THURSDAY
EUROPA
Lech Poznan -.5 -111/Honka, 1 unit
Botev -.5 +118/Zrinjski, 2 units
Tromso -1 +121/Inter Baku, 2 units
Mladost Podgorica +.25 -109/Senica, 2 units
Minsk -.75 -121/Valletta, 2 units

Maybe more in the morning.

Record: 134-178, -65.97

 

[achandicap]

More Europa...

Chernomorets Odessa -2 +101/Dacia, 2 units
Debrecen +1 -119/Stromsgodset, 1 unit
Xanthi -1.75 -111/Linfield, 3 units
Trabzonspor -2 -124/Derry City, 3 units
Sturm Graz -.75 -111/Breidablik, 1 unit
Standard Liege -1 -117/Reykjavik, 1 unit

 

[achandicap]

FRIDAY
IRELAND
Shelbourne/Limerick DRAW +234, 1 unit
Cork/Dundalk DRAW +237, 1 unit

Record: 138.5-182, -68.41

 

[achandicap]

SATURDAY
BRAZIL
Gremio -.5 +101/Criciuma, 1 unit
Sao Paulo -.5 +117/Cruziero, 1 unit

Record: 139.5-183, -67.04

 

[achandicap]

SUNDAY
BRAZIL
Corinthians PK 015/Atletico Paranaense, 3 units
Flamengo +.5 +104/Internacional, 1 unit
Bahia +.5 -123/Vitoria, 1 unit
Goias -.5 -104/Portuguese, 2 units

Record: 139.5-185, -69.04

 

[achandicap]

TUESDAY
CHAMPS
Molde -1 -145/Sligo, 2 units
Dinamo Tbilisi -1 -132/Streymur, 1 unit
Maccabi Tel Aviv -1.5 -119/Gyor, 3 units

Record: 140.5-184, -66.04 (revised math)

 

[achandicap]

An 86th minute goal keeps me from a 3-0 day. Instead, I lose the vig. Dammit...

WEDNESDAY
CHAMPS
Maribor -1.75 -136/Birkirkara, 3 units

LIBERTADORES
Atletico Mineiro to win Libertadores +168, 2 units

Record: 142.5-185, -66.61

 

[achandicap]

THURSDAY
EUROPA (thru 10 a.m. games)
IFK Goteborg +.25 -133/Trencin, 1 unit
Minsk -1.5 +111/Valletta, 3 units
Sturm Graz -1.75 +100/Breidablik, 2 units
Pandurii -2 -112/Levadia, 2 units

Record: 144-185, -61.73

 

[achandicap]

EUROPA (late games)
Botev -1.5 -113/Zrinjski, 1 unit
Senica -1.25 +109/Mladost, 2 units
Differdange +2.25 -114/Utrecht, 2 units
Debrecen -.5 +118/Stromsgodset, 3 units

 

[achandicap]

FRIDAY
IRELAND
Dundalk -1 -109/Bray, 2 units

COLOMBIA
Cucuta/Itagui DRAW +219, 1 unit
Huila/Atletico Nacional DRAW +220, 1 unit

Record: 148-188, -61.73

 

[achandicap]

SATURDAY
IRELAND
Sligo/Shamrock DRAW +228, 1 unit

BRAZIL
Santos PK +119/Ponte Preta, 3 units
Portuguesa PK -127/Atletico Paranaense, 1 unit

Record: 148-190, -63.73

 

[StanleyX]

What do you base your picks on? See you're doing quite a nice job here

 

[achandicap]

I agree, it's a great job. I have a power rating system that until this year was doing decently. It's frustrating as hell that something that worked well before suddenly shifted. I've been tinkering with it the last few months, as new leagues start. Brazil, for instance, started horribly, but I think I have that countered. I'm hoping Colombia's new start will go my way, and that by the time Italy and England begin I'm out of this funk. My goal is to see if I can get back to even by the end of the year. The law of averages says I can't continue to be this bad for this long.

SATURDAY
COLOMBIA
Pasto -1 +116/Quindio, 1 unit
La Equidad/Millonarios DRAW +198, 1 unit

 

[achandicap]

Two draws help make a 2-3 day passable. I'm avoiding Brazil, which means the plays I'm not making will probably win.

SUNDAY
COLOMBIA
Envigado/Junior DRAW +224, 1 unit
Ind. Medellin/Tolima DRAW +218, 1 unit

Record 150.5-193, -60.59

 

[achandicap]

WEDNESDAY
CHAMPS
Molde/Legia DRAW +229, 1 unit
Ludogorets -.5 -119/Partizan, 3 units
Salzburg PK -130/Fenerbahce, 2 units
Celtic -1 +104/Elfsborg, 1 unit

Record 151.5-194, -59.41

 

[Mosi]

Nice day hitting first two. Nothing better to me than nailing the draw. Good luck the rest of the way.

 

[achandicap]

Draws have to have a lot of matching numbers for me. I've been surprised I've had so many in the last week. I'd like to think I'm turning the corner. My numbers also said Coritiba -1 and Bahia at pick in Brazil, but I couldn't pull the trigger. A few more days and I hope I'll have confidence again.

THURSDAY
EUROPA
Trencin/Astra DRAW +221, 1 unit
Petrolul/Vitesse DRAW +238, 1 unit
Maccabi Haifi -1 -135/Ventspils, 2 units
Differdange +1.5 +115/Tromso, 2 units
Asteras -.5 +110/Rapid Vienna, 2 units
Swansea -1 -126/Malmo, 3 units

Record 153.5-194, -54.12