AC soccer for 2013

[achandicap]

New year, new thread. Last year I was 331.5-310, +3.82. That means to me I took too many multi-unit shots that didn't pan out, while my 1-unit plays were actually better than the overall picks. The ROI is barely existent--I hope to change that in 2013 as well with fewer plays.

The focus will be the same as last year: England, Italy, Ireland, Brazil and Colombia, plus Champs and Europa Leagues, Libertadores, Sudamericana in South America, and CONCACAF Champs League in North America. I may also throw in some other international competitions, but mainly they will be few and for small units. I'll bet 1 to 5 units, with lines from 5Dimes.

TUESDAY
ENGLAND
West Brom -.5 -101/Fulham, 2 units

 

[achandicap]

I don't quite like this play, but the numbers say to jump. So...

WEDNESDAY
Liverpool -1.5 +106/Sunderland, 5 units

Record: 0-1, -2.02

 

[achandicap]

ITALY
SATURDAY
Lazio -1 -105/Cagliari, 3 units

SUNDAY
Inter PK -132/Udinese, 1 unit
Parma -.5 -123/Palermo, 1 unit

Record: 1-1, +3.28

 

[achandicap]

Some ugly plays this weekend, but as I've been told: If it's ugly, it's because the book doesn't want you to bet it.

SATURDAY
ENGLAND
Reading PK +111/West Brom, 3 units
Stoke +.5 -109/Chelsea, 2 units

ITALY
Inter -1.5 -116/Pescara, 3 units (one of the ugly ones)

SUNDAY
ITALY
Genoa +.5 -118/Cagliari, 1 unit
Roma -.5 +124/Catania, 3 units
Napoli -1.5 -104/Palermo, 2 units (the second ugly)
Parma +.5 -132/Juventus, 1 unit (the last ugly)
Fiorentina PK -126/Udinese, 2 units

Maybe a Sunday England game to come.

Record: 2-2, +3.05

 

[trytrytry]

have a great 2013

 

[achandicap]

Some To Win bets on the African Cup of Nations, which starts Saturday, and a future bet on the Capital One Cup. All are one unit.

AFRICA (to win)
Ghana +625
Nigeria +925
Mali +1575

Capital One Cup
Bradford +840
Bradford has a 3-1 lead over Aston Villa (second leg Tuesday), which has shown nothing this season in the Premier League. With Swansea up 2-0 over Arsenal in the other semifinal (second leg Wednesday, with Arsenal coming off a huge match against Chelsea Sunday), there's a chance I could have Bradford +840 over Swansea in a one-off championship match. Just two years ago Birmingham City proved anything can happen by beating Arsenal while being relegated from the Premiership, and last year Cardiff took Liverpool to penalties.

Record: 6-6, +3.50

 

[nojuice9]

cap, I would like to hear your thoughts on backing Man. City this coming Saturday.

Thanks

 

[achandicap]

NoJuice: I don't like playing matches where the line is above -1.5. Therefore Man City at -1.75 is a no play. My numbers say a slight lean to Fulham, but I didn't look much at the match because of the extreme line.

SATURDAY
Liverpool -1.5 -113/Norwich, 1 unit
Sunderland +.25 +107/Wigan, 2 units

ITALY
Udinese +1.5 -133/Juventus, 2 units

 

[achandicap]

SUNDAY
ITALY
Bologna +1 +118/Milan, 1 unit
Chievo PK -109/Parma, 1 unit
Sampdoria PK +124/Siena, 3 units
Roma -.5 -111/Inter, 2 units

 

[achandicap]

Another bad day in Italy. Need to cut back on those bets.

TUESDAY
ENGLAND (Cap One)
Aston Villa -1.5 +118/Bradford, 1 unit (Safety bet against the future bet, though I can win this and still have Bradford advance.)

LIBERTADORES
Tigre -1.5 +117/Anzoategui, 1 unit

Record: 8-9, -1.24

 

[achandicap]

Two losers Tuesday, but one of them kept the Bradford hope alive, so I'll take it.

WEDNESDAY
ENGLAND (Cap One)
Chelsea -.5 -130/Swansea, 1 unit
With 2-0 lead, Swansea doesn't need to win this match to advance.

ITALY
Roma/Inter U3 +108, 2 units
Coppa matches are traditionally lower scoring, and first legs are usually lower scoring.

LIBERTADORES
LDU Quito PK -130/Gremio, 2 units
LDU is 3-0-1 in international play at home since 2010, while Gremio is 1-3-5 away from Brazil in the same time period. Quito's altitude is hard enough on visitors, and Gremio doesn't start its local season until February 2.

Record: 8-11, -3.24

 

[achandicap]

THURSDAY
LIBERTADORES
Defensor Sporting -.5 +102/Olimpia, 1 unit

Record: 9-12, -2.54

 

[achandicap]

I know what I said about Italy, but I really, really like this match.

ITALY
SATURDAY
Lazio -1 +107/Chievo, 3 units

Record: 9-13, -3.54

 

[achandicap]

Off to a slow start this year, but have to keep firing. More Italy...just beware.

SUNDAY
ITALY
Bologna PK +117/Roma, 2 units
Fiorentina PK -140/Catania, 3 units
Parma PK +109/Napoli, 1 unit
Sampdoria -.5 -156/Pescara, 3 units
Torino +1 -128/Inter, 2 units

Record: 9-14, -6.54

 

[achandicap]

So close to having a big day Sunday. Fiorentina and Parma both game up late goals that turned a win and a draw into a draw and a loss. Fiorentina especially hurt since they were in control until a red card reduced them to 10 men.

Might have Libertadores action in the afternoon.

TUESDAY
ENGLAND
Swansea PK +121/Sunderland, 2 units

Record: 11-16, -6.74

 

[achandicap]

Just a hunch...

TUESDAY
LIBERTADORES
Anzoategui/Tigre DRAW +229, 1 unit
Iquique/Leon DRAW +236, 1 unit

 

[achandicap]

A lot of plays, but small units today.

WEDNESDAY
ENGLAND
Arsenal -.5 +125/Liverpool, 1 unit
West Brom +1 -104/Everton, 1 unit
Fulham -.5 +133/West Ham, 3 units
Reading +1 -103/Chelsea, 1 unit

LIBERTADORES
Bolivar -.5 +113/Sao Paulo, 1 unit (SP is up 5-0 and will play reserves)
LDU Quito +1.5 -113/Gremio, 1 unit

Record: 12-17, -5.38

 

[achandicap]

Always nice to report winners...

THURSDAY
LIBERTADORES
Olimpio -.5 +113/Defensor Sporting, 1 unit
Cesar Vallejo PK -116/Deportivo Tolima, 1 unit

Record: 16-18, +0.74

 

[achandicap]

Here's the entire weekend. Not much to bet, as new lineups after the transfer window closes make me hesitant.

SATURDAY
ENGLAND
Norwich +.5 -114/QPR, 1 unit

ITALY
Sampdoria +.5 -125/Torino, 1 unit

SUNDAY
ITALY
Chievo +1 -125/Juventus, 1 unit
Pescara PK +115/Bologna, 2 units
Udinese +1 -113/Milan, 1 unit

Record: 17-18, +1.87

 

[achandicap]

I'll probably hedge my remaining African Cup bet on Nigeria +925 Sunday. I hope some of you are with me on that. We had three of the final four, and I'm hoping Burkina Faso doesn't totally upset. Also have Bradford +840 int he Capitol One Cup later this month. February could be a good month for futures.

SATURDAY
ENGLAND
Chelsea -1.5 -109/Wigan, 1 unit
QPR +.5 +109/Swansea, 2 units

ITALY
Lazio PK +110/Napoli, 1 unit

Record: 19-19, +1.87