best way to explin the middle is with the total from last night.
Total was 50.5. The 2nd half total was 24. There were 19 points in the 1st half. You could have bet the under for the game, then the over in the second half. 24+19 =43. You had a 7 point "middle" last night. If the game landed anywhere from 44-50, you'd win both plays.
Total was 50.5. The 2nd half total was 24. There were 19 points in the 1st half. You could have bet the under for the game, then the over in the second half. 24+19 =43. You had a 7 point "middle" last night. If the game landed anywhere from 44-50, you'd win both plays.
Nobody disputes that. BB is saying that the guru is middling halftime lines, not full game totals. So if BB was offering a 2nd half total of 24 and another book was offering 27, the guru would bet over w/ BB's 24 and under for other book's 27 for a 3 pt 2nd half middle. What people are questioning is how there were so many halftime middles this weekend (over 40 plays), and more importantly for me, where this other book that this guru is using is so I can hit him up too!
Middling
It seems as though some of you don't understand what Guru was doing. I believe he was attempting to middle the entire game.
For instance, the game line last week was West Virginia -3 Colorado. Colorado up 14-7 at half. 2nd half line was West Virginia -3 Colorado.
If you bet Colorado +3 4x, and at half time, you bet West Vag -3 4x (to middle), you have the following scenarios:
- Colorado by more than four - lose ~.4x (your juice on the full game bet).
- Colorado by exactly four - win 4x on the full game bet, push half-time bet.
- West Virginia by two or one; or Colorado by one, two or three - win 8x.
- West Virginia by three - win 4x on half-time bet, push full game.
- West Virginia by four or more - lose ~.4x (your juice on the half-time bet).
Maybe you all do understand this and I'm not understanding you all, but if not, maybe this sheds some light.
Also, I'm not getting into this "Guru is or isn't"/"Big Bookie is or isn't". If you don't like his threads, don't read them. If you think BB sucks, fade away. I don't understand why people care whether others make 20 unit bets vs 2 units, $2000 vs $20, claim they are the pope or the best capper on the net or whatever. You can claim you are/do whatever you want, this is the internet. Maybe Big Bookie is Kirk Herbstriet. I don't know.
And to the guy who will inevitably say, "But if a new gambler comes here and BB misleads them, blah blah blah"...I say, well, the lesson needs to be learned not to blindly follow someone you don't know. And that new gambler probably isn't winning or losing much anyway. If he is, he wasn't going to keep his money long in this world anyway.
It seems as though some of you don't understand what Guru was doing. I believe he was attempting to middle the entire game.
For instance, the game line last week was West Virginia -3 Colorado. Colorado up 14-7 at half. 2nd half line was West Virginia -3 Colorado.
If you bet Colorado +3 4x, and at half time, you bet West Vag -3 4x (to middle), you have the following scenarios:
- Colorado by more than four - lose ~.4x (your juice on the full game bet).
- Colorado by exactly four - win 4x on the full game bet, push half-time bet.
- West Virginia by two or one; or Colorado by one, two or three - win 8x.
- West Virginia by three - win 4x on half-time bet, push full game.
- West Virginia by four or more - lose ~.4x (your juice on the half-time bet).
Maybe you all do understand this and I'm not understanding you all, but if not, maybe this sheds some light.
Also, I'm not getting into this "Guru is or isn't"/"Big Bookie is or isn't". If you don't like his threads, don't read them. If you think BB sucks, fade away. I don't understand why people care whether others make 20 unit bets vs 2 units, $2000 vs $20, claim they are the pope or the best capper on the net or whatever. You can claim you are/do whatever you want, this is the internet. Maybe Big Bookie is Kirk Herbstriet. I don't know.
And to the guy who will inevitably say, "But if a new gambler comes here and BB misleads them, blah blah blah"...I say, well, the lesson needs to be learned not to blindly follow someone you don't know. And that new gambler probably isn't winning or losing much anyway. If he is, he wasn't going to keep his money long in this world anyway.
That's what I thought at first too, but BB says (in the 33rd post of the thread) that the guru found a bookie that was giving him 'fucked up 2nd half lines'. He wasn't trying to middle the game. I agree w/ you on the 2nd point though. BB's not forcing anyone to do anything. He's making suggestions. You can take it, fade it, or ignore it. It's ultimately still your decision.
I understand middling an entire game with a halftime line is def. viable. But are you referring to middling 2nd half plays between books? That's what BB is saying his guru did. I know 2nd half lines are volatile, but the question is if there were really 40 middleable 2nd half plays between books this weekend? Like I said before, I'd really like to find out where the guru is finding his soft 2nd half lines so I can get in on the middling action too.
On a separate note...Also remember, the guru plays 5 dimes a play. He made almost 50 halftime plays this weekend. Given that he's now middling and betting w/ two books, that means he layed at least $500,000 this weekend. Perhaps the 'guru' is really Charles Barkley? Or John Daly?
yep. this is the same homedawg from Peeps, yes?
no way he's hitting over 65% over 5 years with today's numbers.
if he's betting into at -110 when W/A is -130 then he might hit 60% but that's not even close to a true 60% when weighted according to ROI.
I have a database of NFL halftime numbers that cover over 12 years. It's complete with opening and closing numbers from over 10 books. Like I said, I'm not trying to bust anyone's balls, but I am feeling the need to separate reality from...ya gotta have enough respect for the peeps to refrain from leading them down a path promising +60% without proper analysis.
The bottom line is this: even if and that's a big if, he was hitting over 60% that doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot. THE SAMPLE SIZE is too small. There is more variance on handicappers' performance in the NFL than probably any other sport, there's not that many games. It's why you have a guy hit 65% one year, then follow up with 42% the next. People can bet on two or three teams that cover over 60% of the time that year, kinda get lucky. Then reality sets in b/c they don't understand value.
About middling 2nd halves: good luck with that. It doesn't matter if you are middling from a full game position using the 2nd half such as you have a dog +10 and they are tied up at the half and the 2nd half line is the favored full game team -5.5/-6, the full game lines simply aren't sharp enough to make it profitable long term, ESPECIALLY not NCAA football. Trying to middle 2nd halves unto themselves is especially difficult. Take the above example. You take -5.5 and +6, if it lands exactly 6 you win one. But the problem is volatility. With +6 out there those 5.5's are usually gone quick and if you take a position of -5.5 for the limit and a crew decides they want to take all the +6's...it can go to +5 -120 before you can get down, it happens all the time. It's somewhat rare to get a full whole number on a 2nd half, such as -4 -110 and +5.5 -110 and that's on a number that doesn't land very often. At -3, -3.5, -4, and even -2 they will often move to -130 instead of exposing a whole number that does land with some frequency. best of luck.<!-- / message -->
