A simple logic problem

[fhmesq44]

Festering Zit-

That's like saying that the roulette wheel is more likely to come up red, because the last one was black.

No correlation. Every time you conceive, there is a 50% chance of male, and 50% chance of female.

Excluding the probability of two spins being Black, black, what is the probability that two spins will be one red and one black?

 

[fhmesq44]

cool I love austin...will plan a trip

ok, deal...if they say yes they have a daughter, and according to your math, they will answer 'daughter' to the second question 66% of the time...every time they answer daughter, then you pay me 300, for every boy that comes up i will give you 200......being that the probability is 2/3 we should be just about even at the evenings close

mark me down as yes to having at least one boy and yes to having a daughter.

 

[festeringZit]

Festering Zit-

That's like saying that the roulette wheel is more likely to come up red, because the last one was black.

No correlation. Every time you conceive, there is a 50% chance of male, and 50% chance of female.

Illini, it's not the same as two independent roulette spins. We are
talking about sets of two roulette spins.

 

[Illini]

Answer is 2/3.

So if I have son and he's in T-ball, and then after the game my wife and I have sex and conceive, there is a 2/3 chance that we have a girl this time?

Okay. Let me guess, you can beat roulette and craps, too.

Wow.

 

[festeringZit]

Excluding the probability of two spins being Black, black, what is the probability that two spins will be one red and one black?

Great analogy.

 

[Illini]

Illini, it's not the same as two independent roulette spins. We are
talking about sets of two roulette spins.

Baloney. Once you have the son, you have an equally good chance of your next kid being a boy or a girl.

Everything about the known son has nothing at all to do with the other child. Nothing.

 

[Illini]

Excluding the probability of two spins being Black, black, what is the probability that two spins will be one red and one black?

Having the first son doesn't exclude anything about the other child.

Guys, it's very simple. You are drawing conclusions that logic will not allow you to draw.

 

[Geoff101]

Zit, i can make it down next weekend, not this but next...where do you wanna meet? preferably a place where you dont know anyone

 

[Kruser6]

100%

"He starts talking about his SON" implying the other is a daughter. If this has been said already forgive me, I didn't want to read 6 pages.

 

[festeringZit]

Having the first son doesn't exclude anything about the other child.

Guys, it's very simple. You are drawing conclusions that logic will not allow you to draw.

Illini,

Do me a favor and read through the wiki link I posted.

 

[Kruser6]

Festering Zit-

That's like saying that the roulette wheel is more likely to come up red, because the last one was black.

No correlation. Every time you conceive, there is a 50% chance of male, and 50% chance of female.

Not true. If you have sex while she is standing on her head it is a better chance that the kid will be a boy.

 

[Illini]

Not true. If you have sex while she is standing on her head it is a better chance that the kid will be a boy.

:nohead: I have heard of crazy things you can do to try to manipulate the cells.

 

[Illini]

Illini,

Do me a favor and read through the wiki link I posted.

I have read it. It's total and complete bullshit.

You can't draw conclusions about a second child using anything about the first child. They are independent events.

If you start having kids, and your first one is a boy, you are just as likely to have your next child be a boy as you are to have it be a girl.

Think about it. It's very simple.

 

[Kruser6]

lets equate this to probability at a roulette wheel....the roulette wheel has ONLY red and black on it.....the second sping you got a black....what was the probablity you got black on the first spin?

The same probability that you got red and if you say otherwise then you are retarded.

 

[fhmesq44]

Having the first son doesn't exclude anything about the other child.

Guys, it's very simple. You are drawing conclusions that logic will not allow you to draw.

But what is the answer to that question?

You are putting the son into the first position, you don't know which position he is in. By placing the son in first (or second) position you are focusing not on the pair but on the other child. The focus, as Zit has said, is on the pair, not the second child.

If I told you there were 100 couples who had two children that were statistically accurately represented that would look like

25 BB
25 GG
25 BG
25 GB

or

25 BB
50 GB (any combo)
25 GG

Now, I send all 25 of the couples who are GG out of the room, you ask each couple the following question:

Do you have a girl? How many of those couples will answer yes?

 

[Illini]

But what is the answer to that question?

You are putting the son into the first position, you don't know which position he is in. By placing the son in first (or second) position you are focusing not on the pair but on the other child. The focus, as Zit has said, is on the pair, not the second child.

If I told you there were 100 couples who had two children that were statistically accurately represented that would look like

25 BB
25 GG
25 BG
25 GB

or

25 BB
50 GB (any combo)
25 GG

Now, I send all 25 of the couples who are GG out of the room, you ask each couple the following question:

Do you have a girl? How many of those couples will answer yes?

We are not talking about statistics and averages. We are talking about a random event.....having a second child.

Every time you have a child, it's 50% girl, 50% boy.

 

[Kruser6]

Reading through this thread I am astonished. I am the only boy out of 4 siblings. Evidently the math didn't work out for my dad then when he kept thinking, "Well the last was a girl, there has to be a better chance that this one will be a boy"


I can not believe that people still think that the previous spin on a roulette spin has any correlation to the next spin. The odds remain the same each and every spin PLAIN AND SIMPLE.

 

[MattRain]

So if I have son and he's in T-ball, and then after the game my wife and I have sex and conceive, there is a 2/3 chance that we have a girl this time?

No - that's not what the problem asks anyway. You've already formed one half of your pair of children. You did not have a girl first, so you cannot be part of the families that had 2 girls (GG). Your pair of children will either be BG or BB - and while you cannot be part of the GB group, a stranger cannot know that if the only information he's provided with is that one of your children is a boy. You'll be the only one knowing that you had a boy first. Hence, for the person answering the problem, there's 2 chances out of 3 that your other child is a girl (BG or GB, out of BG, GB and BB).

 

[fhmesq44]

I have read it. It's total and complete bullshit.

You can't draw conclusions about a second child using anything about the first child. They are independent events.

If you start having kids, and your first one is a boy, you are just as likely to have your next child be a boy as you are to have it be a girl.

Think about it. It's very simple.

You're right, but we aren't talking about first and second, we are talking about a pair.

 

[Illini]

You're right, but we aren't talking about first and second, we are talking about a pair.

No. We are talking about the sex of the second child.

You know nothing about that second child, only that it was born. Anything you know about the first child is completely and totally irrelevant as to the sex of the second child.