A SECRET WAY FOR THE AVERAGE GAMBLER TO BEAT BOOKMAKERS!

Cecil,

I agree 100% with your theory about fading people is stupid, but there is ONE exception to it.

It's called

cool hand JIM.

He is the only exception in this case.
The man is just a born loser. When this square is involved, you have to fade him. How can you not fade the world's #1 square.

He's the reason why the fade even exists in the gambling world. The fade was invented after him. If there wasn't a CHJ in this world, there would have NEVER been a fade in betting. He was the first guy faded back in '77, when CHJ started gambling. But aside from him, I agree, fading is silly.

 

Yes Hamneggs,

Go to our football forum and look at who the consensus of gamblers are betting on any partular game then take the opposite side...

I am not suggesting retiring off of this system but I believe that going against PUBLIC OPINION has a far better chance of hitting 52-53% in the long run than does the actual square....

And that should break you even which isn't all that bad...

THE SHRINK

 

[TheGeneral+]

Look for the capper who is hot and the capper who is cold. Fading either scenerio is a good measure. You must increase the roll a little each wager to get back some profits. Show me any capper who hits or loses 4 or more straight wagers ATS on a consistent basis. One needs to study more than one or 2 cappers though. Lets say your starting point is 4 and the capper hits 6, then no need to follow him again if you are playing others too. I do not remember seeing multiple cappers at once on 6-7 ATS winning streaks in NFL.

Thanks and good luck in 2003

 

[stickn8ball444]

I used the same system in stocks, every one I pick would go down in price, needed to do calls and puts and started shortselling

 

[ATX]

General,

You MUST know the historical win rate for an individual over time for this to be of any use. There are plenty of people that hit over 60% (they are selective) and fading these people "when they are hot" is really a bad idea.

Fading someone at any time that historically wins is a bad idea.

If you can ID the people who dont have a clue, and fade THEM when they are hot, this is not a bad idea. Part of the problem is that these losers typically disappear after a bad run, they run out of money.

It's a hell of a lot better, and a hell of lot easier to learn how to ID value and invest in yourself, IMO. Dependence is weakness.

 

[Dante]

ATX..good post! you are being nominated for the POST of the week contest this week..good luck!

 

[TheGeneral+]

I understand ATX. It is not an easy task for sure. Alot of attention must be given, and when one lists plays that start at the same time or overlap, there presents a problem.

 

[basesAREloaded]

Fade 'em all n' shop.

Plus side rules.

 

[ATX]

General,

dont get me wrong. I am playing devil's advocate, your logic in this example does work, but the trick is narrowing this sample down (getting rid of as many 50% scenarios as possible). And there are all kinds of overlaps, a game in one region may have one-sided action on one team, and somewhere else a bookmaker may see the exact opposite.

I dont know if you pay any attention to my plays, but I wager on a lot of games. Probably 20% of them are based on fading the public (in football and basketball). If I like a side already and find out that the public is going against me, I often increase that wager (especially if the line is moving with me). There are games that I dont have an opinion on (or dont see value in) and many times I will fade the public and throw a small wager on the opposite team. Look into breaking it up a little:
home/away fave/dog over/under line/move

I think fading the public is generally better at the end of regular seasons than at the beginnings. I dont think fading the public is a great idea in the playoffs, I got hurt a little at the start of the NBA playoffs. I havent done anything with it in baseball, I'm still new to that sport. Best of luck.

 

[TheGeneral+]

ATX,

Your mathematical insights are matched by no one here, so i dare not compete with your knowledge of numbers. Thanks for the feedback. As always, very good opinions.

 

[HacheMan]

ATX, I have to agree, in the Football Forum yesterday when I suggested the Tampa game would go over the points and trying to decide if I should lay it, and you responded by saying it may likely go under, that was the "sign" this thread points out to go ahead and play the over!....

I'm only joking ATX!

Just playing around, I highly respect your opinions, and look for your help and suggestions on insight this football season. General said it all in post above....

 

[ATX]

General,

I dont have as strong a background in math as you probably assume. There are many posters that are far more qualified in statistics. I'd say that my wagers are based on 70% logic (or more), 30% probability. When my logic fails, I'm doomed. I stated before in another thread that I think math often gets in the way. I probably spend 10% of my time trying to find the 'right side' and the rest of the time deciding how large a wager should be. To be honest, a lot of games take less than 5 minutes for me to handicap, the more time I spend on a game the more confused I get.

 

[HacheMan]

Regardless ATX, your still obviously intelligent and informative, very easy to tell this is what General is getting at. You seem like a classy guy, keep it up.....Seems as though this forum only has Good Guys~~Or~~Bad Guys......Nothing in~between~......

 

[ATX]

Hache,

glad you cashed with the over!! I havent tried to handicap the NFL preseason before, my opinion on it is has little value. My logic is that very few teams should actually be favored in NFLX (or at least not by much) so there is value on the points and the dog ML. I'm going very small, maybe I'll pick up some bank, maybe I wont. When the regular season starts I'll risk a lot more. I'm nervous about the NFL, it's been too good to me for too long...

 

[cecil+]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by cecil:
I have never understood the whole "fading" idea. I guess I am just too logical.
Lets see, the idea is that since you can't figure out how to win yourself, you find someone who is DUMBER than you are, and do the opposite of him.
Is there any other business that does things this way? Could you imagine starting a business, and at the corporate meeting saying "Here is our business Plan. Jacckoff co. has been the worlds lowest supplier of gummy worms. They are on the verge of bankruptcy. Our business model, will be to do everything the opposite of them, without letting our own decisions influence us".
Its a very strange idea to me, not to mention it would take the fun out of the recreational player picking the games. I guess its done in fun, but I still don't get it...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

The idea was just as dumb last year as it is now...

 

[HacheMan]

ATX, I hope you know I was just joking up above, but thanks for the congrats, I just figured with Gruden wanting to see what his backups could do offensively, and Tampa Bay's ability to score on defense, that 32 points was too low. You will do fine this year in NFL, trust yourself, you haven't been "too good for too long" like you say for nothing! Luck is always involved, of course, but maintaining like you have tells the tale. I did very well in NFL last year, better than some that are considered tops here, but just like you, am worried that as soon as I begin to post my picks this year, it will all fall apart! I dont want to be in Big Lou's situation, knowing that you are a solid NFL capper and know the game, but a bit of bad luck gets you "shots" and "criticism" from many!

 

[ATX]

Cecil, I agree with your opinion. But I use the public's opinion as just one of many different angles, and I like to know who the public is on so I can pay special attention to the OPPOSITE side.

Hache, if you are not bashed at least once during the football season you will be the first, LOL.

 

[valdosta]

Anyone who "fades" thereself is imcompetant and shouldn't be gambling in the first place!!

 

[acw]

Have a database with the prices of different books at different times, keep the data of the tipsters, etc., etc.!!!!!
You will be a winner!
There is quite a bit of logic in Shrinks story, but to just say that one should fade others is not enough.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Wake me up when we have a topic on how below average gamblers can beat bookmakers.....