I just watched a taped game I had earlier in the year,
Bills @ Patriots -3.5
Pats won 20-10.
Special Teams
Bills special teams were very good. NE had to work on full fields, Leodis McCelvin almost ran two kicks back. One was about 60 yards, the other was about 40 yards. Even thought the Bills offense isn't as good, they were already nearly in scoring range on both returns. The Bills have a few guys that can return ( Roscoe Parrish as well).
Red zone scoring
The Pats don't run that ball that well, and had trouble throwing in the redzone. They actually scored their first TD on a Matt Cassell DRAW, and they scored their 4th Q TD on an unusual defensive holding call by Marcus Stroud. All of the other Pats points were field goals.
Red zone
If you are laying 7 points to a divisonal rival on the road, you NEED to convert your red zone opportunites into TD's, and I saw the Pats luck out twice.
Turnovers
Trent Edwards had 2 picks
Matt Cassell had 1 fumble
I'd say normally they probably turn the ball over the same.
Injuries
Marshawn Lynch might not play, but his backup Fred Jackson played about as well as him.
The Pats front 7 is decimated by injuries.
I thought the Bills cornerbacks covered the Patriots WR's very well. Even on the passes that they caught, they bad a BILL right there. MOST of the catches were in the middle of the field, right in front of the linebackers. Cover 2, the outsides were covered pretty well by the corners, but Wes Welker running crossing routes vs Bills linebackers was deadly. The Pats eat people alive with those short passes. Matt Cassell was able to be something like 18/23 passing at one point in time because he was killing them with welker. Besides the short stuff, the Bills coverage was suprisingly good.
I initally strongly leaned the Over for this game, because that Patriots front 7 is very injured and I believe the Pats will be able to move the ball, and so will the bills, but I am not sure anymore. I think just taking the Bills at home +7 is a better play.
Everybody wants to play the Patriots because they "need to win", but don't you " need to win" all of your games? Odds makers aren't going to give the public anything at this time in the year. Weeks ago the Pats were -3.5 at home, but now they are -7 on the road?
I understand M. Lynch is injured, but if anything, the Pats have more injuries, and are giving " extra" points on the road.
You may say that the Pats, " have" to win, but wouldn't the Bills love to knock the "cheaters' right out of the playoffs? I'll bet you money that some team that " needs to win" won't even win, nevermind cover the pointspread.
You could argue Buffalo " quit on the season", but then why did they just go into Denver and beat a team that had all the motivation in the world to win?
7 points is way too many for an injured Pats/front 7 on a divisonal road game. The Bills have the special teams edge, and will try and win the game nevermind cover the spread.
So glad I watched this game. Buffalo looks like a solid play.
Bills @ Patriots -3.5
Pats won 20-10.
Special Teams
Bills special teams were very good. NE had to work on full fields, Leodis McCelvin almost ran two kicks back. One was about 60 yards, the other was about 40 yards. Even thought the Bills offense isn't as good, they were already nearly in scoring range on both returns. The Bills have a few guys that can return ( Roscoe Parrish as well).
Red zone scoring
The Pats don't run that ball that well, and had trouble throwing in the redzone. They actually scored their first TD on a Matt Cassell DRAW, and they scored their 4th Q TD on an unusual defensive holding call by Marcus Stroud. All of the other Pats points were field goals.
Red zone
If you are laying 7 points to a divisonal rival on the road, you NEED to convert your red zone opportunites into TD's, and I saw the Pats luck out twice.
Turnovers
Trent Edwards had 2 picks
Matt Cassell had 1 fumble
I'd say normally they probably turn the ball over the same.
Injuries
Marshawn Lynch might not play, but his backup Fred Jackson played about as well as him.
The Pats front 7 is decimated by injuries.
I thought the Bills cornerbacks covered the Patriots WR's very well. Even on the passes that they caught, they bad a BILL right there. MOST of the catches were in the middle of the field, right in front of the linebackers. Cover 2, the outsides were covered pretty well by the corners, but Wes Welker running crossing routes vs Bills linebackers was deadly. The Pats eat people alive with those short passes. Matt Cassell was able to be something like 18/23 passing at one point in time because he was killing them with welker. Besides the short stuff, the Bills coverage was suprisingly good.
I initally strongly leaned the Over for this game, because that Patriots front 7 is very injured and I believe the Pats will be able to move the ball, and so will the bills, but I am not sure anymore. I think just taking the Bills at home +7 is a better play.
Everybody wants to play the Patriots because they "need to win", but don't you " need to win" all of your games? Odds makers aren't going to give the public anything at this time in the year. Weeks ago the Pats were -3.5 at home, but now they are -7 on the road?
I understand M. Lynch is injured, but if anything, the Pats have more injuries, and are giving " extra" points on the road.
You may say that the Pats, " have" to win, but wouldn't the Bills love to knock the "cheaters' right out of the playoffs? I'll bet you money that some team that " needs to win" won't even win, nevermind cover the pointspread.
You could argue Buffalo " quit on the season", but then why did they just go into Denver and beat a team that had all the motivation in the world to win?
7 points is way too many for an injured Pats/front 7 on a divisonal road game. The Bills have the special teams edge, and will try and win the game nevermind cover the spread.
So glad I watched this game. Buffalo looks like a solid play.
Right now I am leaning
Cowboys -2
Miami +3
Although, I don't think they both win. I think you go 1-1, but then what is the point of betting. I mean, maybe you get lucky with a win and (miami) push, but I don't know about the value of betting both those games. I think I'd rather pick the one I like more.
Houston ( fading a need to win weaker road team), this game looks like another sucker bet. I could see the public buying into the Bears like freaking lambs. Salivating over those free points for the " need to win" team they just saw win some close games with " heart". My prediction is that people will be cussing Kyle Orton and Lovie Smith after this one.
Buffalo, too many points for a division rival at home. You don't think they are motivated to beat the cheaters? This is a case of the books padding this line to protect against all the Pats bets and teasers they will see.
Rams, Oakland, Denver. These guys are getting a lot of points, and Oakland didn't (quit) last week. I probably don't have the balls to bet these, unless I just bet them all and hope to go 2-1.
New York Giants, They have nothing to play for right? They are still playing against Tavaras Jackson, they still have an old fashioned coach that wants to win. They might have backups in there, but they aren't going to lay down and I am not sure Tavaras could execute against high schoolers when he throws passes into the stands, ground balls, and my favorite, the hand grenade pass.
Cowboys -2
Miami +3
Although, I don't think they both win. I think you go 1-1, but then what is the point of betting. I mean, maybe you get lucky with a win and (miami) push, but I don't know about the value of betting both those games. I think I'd rather pick the one I like more.
Houston ( fading a need to win weaker road team), this game looks like another sucker bet. I could see the public buying into the Bears like freaking lambs. Salivating over those free points for the " need to win" team they just saw win some close games with " heart". My prediction is that people will be cussing Kyle Orton and Lovie Smith after this one.
Buffalo, too many points for a division rival at home. You don't think they are motivated to beat the cheaters? This is a case of the books padding this line to protect against all the Pats bets and teasers they will see.
Rams, Oakland, Denver. These guys are getting a lot of points, and Oakland didn't (quit) last week. I probably don't have the balls to bet these, unless I just bet them all and hope to go 2-1.
New York Giants, They have nothing to play for right? They are still playing against Tavaras Jackson, they still have an old fashioned coach that wants to win. They might have backups in there, but they aren't going to lay down and I am not sure Tavaras could execute against high schoolers when he throws passes into the stands, ground balls, and my favorite, the hand grenade pass.
In my opinion, the teams that have byes next week...Giants, Titans, Steelers can afford to and will play their starters longer and try hard to win vs teams like Colts who know they will be playing next week and don't want to risk injuries or just need to let some guys heal up. I'll be on the Titans.
Think of it like this.
You are at some sort of an open market that coordinates buyers and sellers in a city. You are with our wife, girlfriend, hooker or whatever and she sees a purse that she wants to buy. She is talking outloud telling you how you just HAVE to buy her that.
Now do you think that Arab merchant is going to give you a good, medium, or crappy deal? You know for damn sure when he saw the look on her face and the pressure she put on you, that price is getting jacked up.
Think of the NFL like this. The books know that every lemming better in America wants to bet on the Patriots, so what do you think those desert bookies are going to do? Do you think the -3.5 at home Patriots are going to be -.5? Do you think they will add a couple points because of their win streak and the "need to win? The Patriots are on the road laying 7 points to a divisional rival. They scored 2 Td's at home vs the Bills, but 1 was on a QB draw, and the other was after being stuffed 3 times ina row ( unusual penalty called), and then running another 3 plays. The rest were field goals. The Bills coverage was tight on the Pats receivers, minus the middle of the field ( Bills less than athletic linebackers). K. Mitchell is very good against the run, but can't cover a zone. Puz has a nose for the ball, but isn't known for his pass coverage.
With the public all over the Pats, I am loving the Bills. They have the largest O-Line in the league, are are up against a Pats unit that will be missing 2 of their linebackers, and R. Seymour is questionable too. The Pats picked up two old guys off the street, and I couldn't believe how even Seattle was running the ball on them. The Bills have the heaviest O-line, they should have an equal defense tomorrow, and the edge in special teams... ohhh, those bills special teams.
You are at some sort of an open market that coordinates buyers and sellers in a city. You are with our wife, girlfriend, hooker or whatever and she sees a purse that she wants to buy. She is talking outloud telling you how you just HAVE to buy her that.
Now do you think that Arab merchant is going to give you a good, medium, or crappy deal? You know for damn sure when he saw the look on her face and the pressure she put on you, that price is getting jacked up.
Think of the NFL like this. The books know that every lemming better in America wants to bet on the Patriots, so what do you think those desert bookies are going to do? Do you think the -3.5 at home Patriots are going to be -.5? Do you think they will add a couple points because of their win streak and the "need to win? The Patriots are on the road laying 7 points to a divisional rival. They scored 2 Td's at home vs the Bills, but 1 was on a QB draw, and the other was after being stuffed 3 times ina row ( unusual penalty called), and then running another 3 plays. The rest were field goals. The Bills coverage was tight on the Pats receivers, minus the middle of the field ( Bills less than athletic linebackers). K. Mitchell is very good against the run, but can't cover a zone. Puz has a nose for the ball, but isn't known for his pass coverage.
With the public all over the Pats, I am loving the Bills. They have the largest O-Line in the league, are are up against a Pats unit that will be missing 2 of their linebackers, and R. Seymour is questionable too. The Pats picked up two old guys off the street, and I couldn't believe how even Seattle was running the ball on them. The Bills have the heaviest O-line, they should have an equal defense tomorrow, and the edge in special teams... ohhh, those bills special teams.
"Need to Win"
If they won one more game in the season, this team wouldn't be in a due or die situation. Why didn't they???
Because.....................................
THE "NEED TO WIN TEAM" IS NOT THAT GOOD!
Don't bet a ton of dough on a team that is "not that good"
If they won one more game in the season, this team wouldn't be in a due or die situation. Why didn't they???
Because.....................................
THE "NEED TO WIN TEAM" IS NOT THAT GOOD!
Don't bet a ton of dough on a team that is "not that good"
Raiders
Lions
Rams
Saints
Houston
Giants
all these teams won ATS against teams that "needed to win".
Pitt
NE
These guys won, it's too bad I faded the Pats.
My point is that these fucking bookies aren't stupid. If they know you want to buy a line, they will shade it to protect their asses. Week 17 is a traditionally greedy weekend, and the Players got burned once again. The Raiders were the guys that fucked the Teaser world up today as " tampa bay needed to win, west coast team 1pm etc. etc. etc.".
Lions
Rams
Saints
Houston
Giants
all these teams won ATS against teams that "needed to win".
Pitt
NE
These guys won, it's too bad I faded the Pats.
My point is that these fucking bookies aren't stupid. If they know you want to buy a line, they will shade it to protect their asses. Week 17 is a traditionally greedy weekend, and the Players got burned once again. The Raiders were the guys that fucked the Teaser world up today as " tampa bay needed to win, west coast team 1pm etc. etc. etc.".
