"Nowadays the whole bet dogs late, favorites early theory is crap": this is something I fall into the trap of. A few guys talked about the last few years this has been the complete opposite. The old days it was if you like a favorite a lot you bet them early in the week but now they say there were a ton of times last year in the NFL when you should bet the favorite as late as you can as the number will keep going down right until kickoff.
I think this is pure BS, and I can back it up with my records. Faves still get bet early and dogs late. Happens all the time every year.
I think this is pure BS, and I can back it up with my records. Faves still get bet early and dogs late. Happens all the time every year.
2 different guys felt very strongly about this. They said last NFL season there were a ton of examples of how before game time favorite prices were dropping all morning long right till kickoff.
I am (or should say was) with you on this belief back in the day but it does seem to be not nearly as easy to forecast this as it was back in the day.
My whole betting game revolves around trying to time the market and getting numbers at their apex. I can tell you for a fact it isnt easy to gauge this stuff and be able to guarantee myself the best number by saying I want the dog so i will bet it just before kickoff. I havent seen it and I study this stuff up and down (line movement).
There used to be a tout..capper...teacher named "Jack Painter" years ago that actually used to teach a class at Clark County Community College for actual college credits. He also wrote lots of books and put out a lot of cassette tapes that he sold on all facets of handicapping. He passed away quite a few years ago. I met him once. Pretty cool old dude that reminded me a little of Wilford Brimly. 
