A couple of observations and spots Twinkies/A's...

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Oct 3, 2006

Twins un 7 +.06 and un 24 HRE.

The stats for this game and these two starters are unreal. The last 3 times Zito faced the Twinkies the worst he did was give up 4 hits, and 2 runs. The other starts, no runs. 4 hits and 2 hits. So 2 runs, 10 hits in 3 games. Johan, very similar, but for even more innings. His worst outing 5 hits, the others 2 and 3. The worst 2 runs, twice. So 10 hits 4 runs in 3 games, including a CG. It looks like neither team can hit the other team's starter. Plus as Ozzie showed last year, you are better off riding that starter long if he is cooking. No surprise if both go at least 8. Personally I like the HRE at 24 because even at their worst these two would combine for 10 hits. That would leave you 14 for hits and errors. Neither have control problems, as both games they faced each other this season, neither gave up a walk. So sit back and enjoy, because this one could move along very fast. Created and written by O. Frog.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

Tulsa · Oct 3, 2006

Thanks and I appreciate your analysis. It really is fun to see a 'fast' ballgame.

Best to you and I hope you cash.

tulsa

spreadbeater · Oct 3, 2006

OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
Twins un 7 +.06 and un 24 HRE.

The stats for this game and these two starters are unreal. The last 3 times Zito faced the Twinkies the worst he did was give up 4 hits, and 2 runs. The other starts, no runs. 4 hits and 2 hits. So 2 runs, 10 hits in 3 games. Johan, very similar, but for even more innings. His worst outing 5 hits, the others 2 and 3. The worst 2 runs, twice. So 10 hits 4 runs in 3 games, including a CG. It looks like neither team can hit the other team's starter. Plus as Ozzie showed last year, you are better off riding that starter long if he is cooking. No surprise if both go at least 8. Personally I like the HRE at 24 because even at their worst these two would combine for 10 hits. That would leave you 14 for hits and errors. Neither have control problems, as both games they faced each other this season, neither gave up a walk. So sit back and enjoy, because this one could move along very fast. Created and written by O. Frog.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

FROG,

Was already on the under 24.5 HRE.....a little more confident now. May take a stab at the under now as well. Thanks for posting. :103631605

Please dont hesitate to post any other MLB plays in the future.

Looking forward to hoops. :toast:

Thanks again for posting.

SB :103631605

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Oct 3, 2006

My under 24 1/2 was too heavy of juice, -1.40. So I bet flat under 24. Just can't give extra 30 cents on a 24 to get a win instead of a tie. You probably got it cheaper than I could. Either way, gl. Randy Marsh behind the plate.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

spreadbeater · Oct 3, 2006

OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
My under 24 1/2 was too heavy of juice, -1.40. So I bet flat under 24. Just can't give extra 30 cents on a 24 to get a win instead of a tie. You probably got it cheaper than I could. Either way, gl. Randy Marsh behind the plate.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

Got under 24.5 for -.15. Not terrible, but was my best option. Personally, I am going to leave the game under alone and just keep my under 24.5.

Is Marsh behind the plate a good thing?

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Oct 3, 2006

Sorry, I wandered off. I think Marsh is an old vet, and he will call enough strikes, not balls, and keep the game moving. Easy to say now but I put my money where my mouth was before the game went so, yes, it could help.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

spreadbeater · Oct 3, 2006

OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
Sorry, I wandered off. I think Marsh is an old vet, and he will call enough strikes, not balls, and keep the game moving. Easy to say now but I put my money where my mouth was before the game went so, yes, it could help.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

FROG, you past poster you...LOL....thanks for the heads up on Marsh. Looking strong so far, with a few innings to go.

Any thoughts on the next two games today, Cards/Pads and Tigers/Yanks?

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Oct 3, 2006

I also hedged back the under 7 +.06 with OV 5 1/2 +310. Would be too sweet if it landed 6, but I am thinking stays un, if no xtra inn. The 24 HRE looks damn strong.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Oct 3, 2006

spreadbeater said:
FROG, you past poster you...LOL....thanks for the heads up on Marsh. Looking strong so far, with a few innings to go.

Any thoughts on the next two games today, Cards/Pads and Tigers/Yanks?

Not sure the Cards/SDG will stay un the 7. However not into laying juice to go over, Cards very low price, but earned that with disaster end of season and injuries. Pads can really blow in post season. If forced, would go ov7, lowest juice.

The Tigers are a mirage. Very unlike the Pale Hose last season. Starting pitching and pen are huge questions marks. No team utterly destroys bullpens like the Yanx. That game has fav and ov written all over it.

The first game had the most edges or value in my mind. The next ones are iffy. Especially NL. Might as well coin flip that game.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

PublicsMoney · Oct 3, 2006

Nice Call OF.

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Oct 3, 2006

PublicsMoney said:
Nice Call OF.

Only nice call so far is both starters go 8. 1 run game with home team losing is no cinch. When and if it ends well, then it will be a nice call, until then, I sweat it. But thanks for the props.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

Mr.Leisure · Oct 3, 2006

Thanks for the easy money on the prop bet !

:chest:

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Oct 3, 2006

Some may ask, why didn't you hedge with the ov 3 1/2, -1.45. That was available at the same time. Because my intent was to insure with fat odds and have a mini middle. I still thought it would stay under. I pulled the trigger on the hedge after it became a 1 run game. Then after that inning you could have got OV 3 1/2 +.60. That would have been great, but I hate hedging in 9th inning. So I took less than 25% of my under, and got +310. The end result was having un7 +325. Maybe higher because of + on both. Either way, that ended well. Next.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

Mr. L, always a pleasure.

spreadbeater · Oct 3, 2006

Great hit on both plays FROG....like I previously said, I was on the under 24.5 HRE before you posted, but only got more confident after your post. Wish I would have played your under as well. Oh well, will just take the one winner.

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Oct 3, 2006

Real heavy move across the board over 7. About 15 cents at Pinny alone. I was hesitant to lay -.17 now the board is -.35 and -.40. If there was value, it is gone. That was the play, key word being WAS.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

Tulsa · Oct 3, 2006

spreadbeater said:
Great hit on both plays FROG....like I previously said, I was on the under 24.5 HRE before you posted, but only got more confident after your post. Wish I would have played your under as well. Oh well, will just take the one winner.

LOL! There are two games left and the 'remainder' average isn't out of the question...9.75 per game. Count your money, that's fine. I'm on the other side and I'm not too depressed yet.

It's looking better for you right now, but not enough better to be 'taking the one winner.'

tulsa

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Oct 3, 2006

You are in decent shape Tulsa. Luckily got a couple of runs in 9th or you could be hurting. Very good chance Pads/Cards get 9 or more. I will be rooting for you.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Oct 3, 2006

This Pad game could make ov7 -.50. Seen 3 -.45's already. Guess -.17 was not that bad. Just sat on my ass watching a scalp go by. Oops. Slight action on Cards.

Best Wishes...OF :icon_conf

Tulsa · Oct 3, 2006

Thanks, O' and good luck with your small Cards play.

Nice call on the UNDER Minny and I hope to win the O24 but I won't root for you to lose your U24.

Take care.

tulsa

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Oct 3, 2006

No don't have any action on this game. Passed completely was merely giving out a screen report. It did make -.50 so passed a .13 cent scalp, no biggie. Hope you get double digit runs this one.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy: