A Couple of Fun Prop Bets I Like

[Utah]

Added GNR to release Chinese Democracy by March 6th, 2007

NO at +185

 

[Utah]

Added:

Who is the father of Anna Nicole's child Dannielynn? I took Larry Birkhead for -110.

Larry Birkhead got a court order demanding a DNA test and he is all over the place screaming it is his child. Anna moved out of the Country to the Bahamas with her boyfriend Stern, who she claims is the father. They have fought the test and they have not yet complied with the court order.

This seems like an easy bet for Birkhead as the odds are at least 75% that he is the father. If he isnt, why is he screaming and getting court orders? If the test reveals he is not the father he will be a laughing stock. Also, if he is not the father it would take Anna and Stern 2 seconds to prove with a simple non-invasive test. Why are they fighting this instead of taking the path of least resistance?

 

[Utah]

Added:

Will founding members James Iha and D'arcy Wretzky join Billy Corgan and Jimmy Chamberlin on the upcoming Smashing Pumpkins 2007 world tour?" No +100

I think there is little chance they are with the tour based on what I have read about other committments and based on the fact that they were not announced. If they were close in negotiation wouldnt they wait a few weeks and announce the whole band? However, I wanted clarification from Bodog first on what the prop exactly meant as I didnt know if it meant they had to just appear on stage.

Here is Bodog's reply - "We appreciate you contacting us to clarify the rules of this wager on the Smashing Pumpkins 2007 Tour. The wager will only result in a win if all four members of the band including; James Iha, D'arcy Wretzky, Billy Corgan and Jimmy Chamberline perform the tour and it doesn't include only reuniting for a few selected shows."

 

[Utah]

Added:

Will the Smashing Pumpkins upcoming album debut at #1 on the Billboard 200 Chart? - NO +140

I did about 30 minutes of research and I hit the NO at +140. My analysis isnt real strong on this one and there isnt a ton of good info I could find so I may be way off. However, I didnt want to spend too much time on a one off $50 prop and i shouldnt have even spent 30 minutes but I thought it was interesting. My reasons for the NO:
1) Intuitively, the odds from this point in the production chain cant be better than 50%. I cant believe it is that easy to take a band like the Pumpkins and easily create a #1 opening album without any songs yet
2) The last #1 from them was 10 years ago
3) Billy's solo album a year ago did not fair well
4) Pumpkins are likely past their creativity prime and there ability to produce great songs may be diminished
5) I didnt see a lot of buzz for this announcement

But, I probably trust this bet less than any analyzed bet I have made lately but I do think that it is at least a thin value play.