missy: Nobody can get into their website but lucky for us Marshal King Jong-un sent me pdf's of Pointwise and the Red Sheet. Thank you Supreme Leader!
Pointwise Wk 11.pdf
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RedSheet Wk 11.pdf
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Recap
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Newsletter Tracking through November 7 - https://www.therx.com/threads/971451/page-451#post-13709011
Podcasts - https://www.therx.com/threads/971451/page-452#post-13711268
Stanford Steve and the Bear picks - https://www.therx.com/threads/971451/page-453#post-13711396
American Turf Club 1377-1381.pdf
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DRF CFB Wk 11.pdf
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DRF NFL Wk 10.pdf
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FootballGoldSheet-week11.pdf
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Kenny White Sports Insider Week 11.pdf
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Playbook Nov 9-15.pdf
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Playbook Midweek Alert Issue 8.pdf
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Pointwise Wk 11.pdf
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Power Plays Wk 11.pdf
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Power Sweep Wk 11.pdf
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Powers' Picks Nov 10-16.pdf
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RedSheet Wk 11.pdf
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Sports Reporter NFL Week 10.pdf
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Sports Reporter Midweek Update Wk 11.pdf
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Totals Tipsheet 10.pdf
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VSiN 2021-22 College Basketball Betting Guide.pdf
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VSiN Point Spread Weekly 11-10-21.pdf
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Winning Points 11.pdf
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Podcasts - https://www.therx.com/threads/971451/page-452#post-13711268
Stanford Steve and the Bear picks - https://www.therx.com/threads/971451/page-453#post-13711396
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Intro by Doug Kezirian
November is a time for college football to take center stage, with various schools making final pushes to become bowl eligible and others challenging for conference titles. However, oddsmakers are most vulnerable with a sport that is just starting.
"College basketball is a bear right now. You can do a lot of reading and get yourself familiar with these teams, but the first month or so is very, very difficult," DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN, alluding to the opening week of 358 Division I schools hitting the hardwood with incoming freshmen and a record number of transfers.
Given that sportsbooks do not hire more staffing for these stretches, one would assume this additional oddsmaking volume compromises the house across the board, including with college football, but that's not the case. "It's actually not harder because the power ratings are tighter," Avello said. "At the beginning of the year, there are a lot of adjustments to be made, but when you move to this time of the year, the ratings from week to week don't move too much."
Four ranked matchups headline this weekend's card, and Avello does not anticipate one particular matchup drawing an overwhelming handle.
Every Wednesday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (23-22 overall, 2-2 last week), Bill Connelly (27-22-1, 5-0), Tyler Fulghum (11-8, 2-1), Joe Fortenbaugh (21-18, 3-0) and David M. Hale (14-13-1, 3-1) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 11 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Friday's best bets
Wyoming Cowboys at Boise State Broncos (-13.5, 48.5), 9 p.m. ET
EDITOR'S PICKS
2dBill Connelly
4dBill Connelly
6dHeather Dinich
Connelly: It's very, very difficult to beat Wyoming by two touchdowns. The Cowboys haven't been good enough offensively to challenge in the Mountain West -- they averaged 9.5 points per game over a four-game losing streak -- but they limit big plays and rank 21st in defensive SP+. Fresno State did beat them by 17 during the losing streak, but (a) Wyoming outgained the Bulldogs by 0.6 yards per play in that game and suffered a minus-5 turnover margin, and (b) the Cowboy offense might be showing signs of life? They scored 31 points and averaged 6.5 yards per play last week against a strong Colorado State defense.
Boise State is coming off of maybe its two best performances of the season and will probably win, but SP+ projects the Broncos by only 8.1 points, and 8-10 sounds about right to me.
Pick: Wyoming +13.5
Saturday's best bets
No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (-5.5, 62.5) at No. 13 Baylor Bears, Noon ET
Fortenbaugh: Since making the switch at quarterback from Spencer Rattler to Caleb Williams, the Sooners are averaging an astounding 48.5 points per game. But as Newton's Third Law of Motion has taught us, "for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction." The "reaction," in this case, is the Oklahoma defense falling apart to the tune of surrendering an average of 30.7 points per game since the transition at quarterback. This current trend sets up nicely for an over bet, especially when you consider a Baylor program that ranks top 20 in scoring offense (36.3 PPG) and eighth in yards per play.
Pick: Over 62.5
November is a time for college football to take center stage, with various schools making final pushes to become bowl eligible and others challenging for conference titles. However, oddsmakers are most vulnerable with a sport that is just starting.
"College basketball is a bear right now. You can do a lot of reading and get yourself familiar with these teams, but the first month or so is very, very difficult," DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN, alluding to the opening week of 358 Division I schools hitting the hardwood with incoming freshmen and a record number of transfers.
Given that sportsbooks do not hire more staffing for these stretches, one would assume this additional oddsmaking volume compromises the house across the board, including with college football, but that's not the case. "It's actually not harder because the power ratings are tighter," Avello said. "At the beginning of the year, there are a lot of adjustments to be made, but when you move to this time of the year, the ratings from week to week don't move too much."
Four ranked matchups headline this weekend's card, and Avello does not anticipate one particular matchup drawing an overwhelming handle.
Every Wednesday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (23-22 overall, 2-2 last week), Bill Connelly (27-22-1, 5-0), Tyler Fulghum (11-8, 2-1), Joe Fortenbaugh (21-18, 3-0) and David M. Hale (14-13-1, 3-1) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 11 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Friday's best bets
Wyoming Cowboys at Boise State Broncos (-13.5, 48.5), 9 p.m. ET
EDITOR'S PICKS
2dBill Connelly
4dBill Connelly
6dHeather Dinich
Connelly: It's very, very difficult to beat Wyoming by two touchdowns. The Cowboys haven't been good enough offensively to challenge in the Mountain West -- they averaged 9.5 points per game over a four-game losing streak -- but they limit big plays and rank 21st in defensive SP+. Fresno State did beat them by 17 during the losing streak, but (a) Wyoming outgained the Bulldogs by 0.6 yards per play in that game and suffered a minus-5 turnover margin, and (b) the Cowboy offense might be showing signs of life? They scored 31 points and averaged 6.5 yards per play last week against a strong Colorado State defense.
Boise State is coming off of maybe its two best performances of the season and will probably win, but SP+ projects the Broncos by only 8.1 points, and 8-10 sounds about right to me.
Pick: Wyoming +13.5
Saturday's best bets
No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (-5.5, 62.5) at No. 13 Baylor Bears, Noon ET
Fortenbaugh: Since making the switch at quarterback from Spencer Rattler to Caleb Williams, the Sooners are averaging an astounding 48.5 points per game. But as Newton's Third Law of Motion has taught us, "for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction." The "reaction," in this case, is the Oklahoma defense falling apart to the tune of surrendering an average of 30.7 points per game since the transition at quarterback. This current trend sets up nicely for an over bet, especially when you consider a Baylor program that ranks top 20 in scoring offense (36.3 PPG) and eighth in yards per play.
Pick: Over 62.5
No. 24 Utah Utes (-24, 54) at Arizona Wildcats, 2 p.m. ET
NFL & CFB Best Bets
Kezirian: After swearing off the Utes earlier this season, I just cannot help myself. They are finally playing to their potential, now that Cameron Rising has taken over starting quarterback duties. They just waxed Stanford 52-7 in Palo Alto, and I expect a similar performance in Tucson.
Arizona is one of the nation's worst teams. The Wildcats beat Cal last week but only because the Golden Bears were missing numerous players due to COVID-19 protocol. Arizona got its first win and now will resume regularly scheduled programming of being awful. I know Utah has Oregon on deck, but the Utes' style will lend itself to counteract that issue. They pound the rock and play tough defense. Arizona will fold like a cheap suit.
Pick: Utah -24, Utah first half -13.5, Arizona team total under 15
Georgia State Panthers at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (-10.5, 52), 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Connelly: How much is Grayson McCall worth? Coastal's star quarterback missed last week's game against Georgia Southern and is evidently out for at least a couple more weeks with injury; that's obviously a red flag when it comes to betting on the Chants.
Here's the deal, though. Backup quarterback Bryce Carpenter is pretty good. He wasn't asked to do a darn thing last week against Georgia Southern -- he was 13 for 20 for just 85 yards -- but he completed 66% of his passes with a decent 137 passer rating back in the pre-McCall days of 2019. The Chants still covered last week (if you grabbed them at -19.5 or lower, anyway), and while you'd expect SP+ to be overselling Coastal since it's not adjusted for injury, it projects the Chants by 20.5. Is McCall 10 points better than Carpenter?
Pick: Coastal -10.5
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-18, 62.5) at Rice Owls, 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Connelly: At first glance, Rice's offense has shown signs of life lately. After averaging just 9.6 points in their first five games against FBS opponents, they've averaged 26 in the last three. But they've averaged only 5.2 yards per play in these three games, and they're still inconsistent -- lots of punts to go with decent drives.
Any punt means doom against WKU. Quarterback Bailey Zappe and the Hilltoppers have scored at least 31 points in every game and have averaged 43.2 PPG against C-USA foes. Last week, MTSU did a great job of limiting big plays and forcing Zappe to dink and dunk, and WKU still scored on eight of their first 12 full possessions (with two more ending on downs in MTSU territory) and won, 48-21. Rice could slow things down and stay close for a while, but SP+ projects a 21.9-point edge for WKU, a decent cushion with the 18-point line.
Pick: WKU -18
No. 19 Purdue Boilermakers at No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-20, 62), 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
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Connelly: Ohio State has underachieved its SP+ projections over the last two weeks (nine-point wins over Penn State and Nebraska) primarily because of an offense that was fine but not amazing. The Buckeyes have yet to truly torch a good defense, and Purdue ranks a solid 28th in defensive SP+.
SP+ projects the Buckeyes with a 24.4-point advantage, but if the last two weeks are a trend, maybe that's not enough to pick Ohio State. I'm doing it anyway, however, because of the Buckeyes' skill corps. Purdue's biggest strength is a secondary that challenges receivers and wins lots of battles. But Michigan State's Payton Thorne went 20-for-30 for 276 yards last week despite missing receiver Jalen Nailor, and OSU's C.J. Stroud should have his full trio of go-to receivers (Garrett Wilson missed the last game but is back in practice this week). With Wilson, Chris Olave and the quickly rising Jaxon Smith-Njigba all lined up wide, OSU will have too many weapons. Purdue will have to engage in a track meet, and the Ohio State defense has been fantastic for the last six games. This one could get away from the Boilermakers.
Pick: Ohio State -20
South Carolina Gamecocks at Missouri Tigers (-1, 55), 4 p.m. ET
Fulghum: You know the deal by now; fade Mizzou football. The Tigers covered for the first time this season (1-8 ATS) in their 37-point loss to Georgia in Athens on Saturday. I won't discourage you from backing the Gamecocks, but I think this line is a little inflated due to their 40-17 beatdown of Florida last week. If I had a couple more points in my pocket with the Gamecocks, I'd be all over it. Instead, I'll pivot to the over in this matchup between two mediocre teams. The Gamecocks just ran for 284 yards against Florida, and Mizzou's swiss cheese defense is allowing 36.8 PPG this season and 271.0 rushing YPG.
Pick: Over 55
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-3, 56) at Tulane Green Wave, 4 p.m. ET on ESPNU
Hale: Tulane is the best 1-8 team in America. It's simple really; a five-point loss at Oklahoma, a seven-point loss to UAB, a closer than expected game against Cincinnati, another close loss at UCF last week -- the Green Wave are competitive, they just haven't gotten over the top. Well, this is the week that changes. Tulsa has had some of the same close game struggles as Tulane, but the Green Wave are also coming off what amounts to their Super Bowl against the Bearcats, a loss that came in an exceedingly frustrating way. The potential for an emotional letdown on the road against a team the Golden Hurricanes clearly think they should beat seems high. Tulsa is 1-5 against the spread as a favorite this year. Tulane is 7-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2017. Tulsa's offense is terrible. Tulane is due for some good luck. And FPI has Tulsa as a short favorite.
Pick: Tulane +3
NFL & CFB Best Bets
Kezirian: After swearing off the Utes earlier this season, I just cannot help myself. They are finally playing to their potential, now that Cameron Rising has taken over starting quarterback duties. They just waxed Stanford 52-7 in Palo Alto, and I expect a similar performance in Tucson.
Arizona is one of the nation's worst teams. The Wildcats beat Cal last week but only because the Golden Bears were missing numerous players due to COVID-19 protocol. Arizona got its first win and now will resume regularly scheduled programming of being awful. I know Utah has Oregon on deck, but the Utes' style will lend itself to counteract that issue. They pound the rock and play tough defense. Arizona will fold like a cheap suit.
Pick: Utah -24, Utah first half -13.5, Arizona team total under 15
Georgia State Panthers at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (-10.5, 52), 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Connelly: How much is Grayson McCall worth? Coastal's star quarterback missed last week's game against Georgia Southern and is evidently out for at least a couple more weeks with injury; that's obviously a red flag when it comes to betting on the Chants.
Here's the deal, though. Backup quarterback Bryce Carpenter is pretty good. He wasn't asked to do a darn thing last week against Georgia Southern -- he was 13 for 20 for just 85 yards -- but he completed 66% of his passes with a decent 137 passer rating back in the pre-McCall days of 2019. The Chants still covered last week (if you grabbed them at -19.5 or lower, anyway), and while you'd expect SP+ to be overselling Coastal since it's not adjusted for injury, it projects the Chants by 20.5. Is McCall 10 points better than Carpenter?
Pick: Coastal -10.5
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-18, 62.5) at Rice Owls, 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Connelly: At first glance, Rice's offense has shown signs of life lately. After averaging just 9.6 points in their first five games against FBS opponents, they've averaged 26 in the last three. But they've averaged only 5.2 yards per play in these three games, and they're still inconsistent -- lots of punts to go with decent drives.
Any punt means doom against WKU. Quarterback Bailey Zappe and the Hilltoppers have scored at least 31 points in every game and have averaged 43.2 PPG against C-USA foes. Last week, MTSU did a great job of limiting big plays and forcing Zappe to dink and dunk, and WKU still scored on eight of their first 12 full possessions (with two more ending on downs in MTSU territory) and won, 48-21. Rice could slow things down and stay close for a while, but SP+ projects a 21.9-point edge for WKU, a decent cushion with the 18-point line.
Pick: WKU -18
No. 19 Purdue Boilermakers at No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-20, 62), 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
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Connelly: Ohio State has underachieved its SP+ projections over the last two weeks (nine-point wins over Penn State and Nebraska) primarily because of an offense that was fine but not amazing. The Buckeyes have yet to truly torch a good defense, and Purdue ranks a solid 28th in defensive SP+.
SP+ projects the Buckeyes with a 24.4-point advantage, but if the last two weeks are a trend, maybe that's not enough to pick Ohio State. I'm doing it anyway, however, because of the Buckeyes' skill corps. Purdue's biggest strength is a secondary that challenges receivers and wins lots of battles. But Michigan State's Payton Thorne went 20-for-30 for 276 yards last week despite missing receiver Jalen Nailor, and OSU's C.J. Stroud should have his full trio of go-to receivers (Garrett Wilson missed the last game but is back in practice this week). With Wilson, Chris Olave and the quickly rising Jaxon Smith-Njigba all lined up wide, OSU will have too many weapons. Purdue will have to engage in a track meet, and the Ohio State defense has been fantastic for the last six games. This one could get away from the Boilermakers.
Pick: Ohio State -20
South Carolina Gamecocks at Missouri Tigers (-1, 55), 4 p.m. ET
Fulghum: You know the deal by now; fade Mizzou football. The Tigers covered for the first time this season (1-8 ATS) in their 37-point loss to Georgia in Athens on Saturday. I won't discourage you from backing the Gamecocks, but I think this line is a little inflated due to their 40-17 beatdown of Florida last week. If I had a couple more points in my pocket with the Gamecocks, I'd be all over it. Instead, I'll pivot to the over in this matchup between two mediocre teams. The Gamecocks just ran for 284 yards against Florida, and Mizzou's swiss cheese defense is allowing 36.8 PPG this season and 271.0 rushing YPG.
Pick: Over 55
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-3, 56) at Tulane Green Wave, 4 p.m. ET on ESPNU
Hale: Tulane is the best 1-8 team in America. It's simple really; a five-point loss at Oklahoma, a seven-point loss to UAB, a closer than expected game against Cincinnati, another close loss at UCF last week -- the Green Wave are competitive, they just haven't gotten over the top. Well, this is the week that changes. Tulsa has had some of the same close game struggles as Tulane, but the Green Wave are also coming off what amounts to their Super Bowl against the Bearcats, a loss that came in an exceedingly frustrating way. The potential for an emotional letdown on the road against a team the Golden Hurricanes clearly think they should beat seems high. Tulsa is 1-5 against the spread as a favorite this year. Tulane is 7-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2017. Tulsa's offense is terrible. Tulane is due for some good luck. And FPI has Tulsa as a short favorite.
Pick: Tulane +3
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (-3, 57) at UNLV Rebels, 4 p.m. ET
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Hale: Wait, did we say Tulane was the best 1-8 team in America? Upon further review, UNLV is the best 1-8 team in America. But they're both really terrific 1-8 teams. The Rebels are coming off their first win and have had a lead in the second half five times this season (they are just 1-4 in those games). The point is, UNLV is making progress under second-year coach Marcus Arroyo. Hawai'i, meanwhile, rarely embraces its role as favorite. The Rainbow Warriors are just 5-22-1 against the spread as a favorite since 2015. The road mark is even worse. Hawai'i has lost seven of its last nine road games and is just 1-4 ATS away from home in 2021. Plus, a 4 p.m. Eastern kickoff is essentially the same as asking Hawai'i to kick off at 9 a.m. on a Tuesday.
Pick: UNLV +3
No. 11 Texas A&M Aggies (-2.5, 55.5) at No. 15 Ole Miss Rebels, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
Hale: It might be easy to look at Texas A&M's recent scoring totals -- 41 vs. Alabama, 35 vs. Missouri, 44 against South Carolina -- and assume Jimbo Fisher has worked out the kinks in the Aggies' offense. Perhaps. But in that 41-point outburst against the Tide, A&M finished with 379 total yards. It wasn't all that much better against Missouri (431) or the Gamecocks (477), and last week produced another mediocre performance against Auburn (409 yards, 20 points). The 477 yards against the Gamecocks represents a season high for A&M vs. a Power 5 opponent, while Ole Miss has finished with fewer than 464 just once (291 against Alabama). Of the Aggies' 15 touchdowns scored from the Alabama game through Auburn, three came via special teams or defense, and three more came after A&M got the ball in its opponent's territory.
Ole Miss has a massive advantage at QB, and while the Rebels' offense has felt a bit off the past few games, they've also held three of their last four opponents to 26 points or fewer. A&M needs big plays to score and has thrown for more than 200 yards just once against a Power 5 opponent. That's a good matchup for the Ole Miss D. Oddly, this is also just the second true road game of the season for A&M (which played Colorado in Denver and Arkansas in Dallas); the first was against lowly Missouri. FPI says the Rebels should be favored by 1.5, so we're happy to take the points here.
Pick: Ole Miss +2.5
Arizona State Sun Devils (-5.5, 44) at Washington Huskies, 7 p.m. ET
Connelly: Arizona State overcame three turnovers to handle USC comfortably last week. The Sun Devils outgained the Trojans by 2.6 yards per play and probably should have won by a lot more than 15. Now they face a UW team that has plenty of reasons to just about pack it in. Head coach Jimmy Lake has been suspended for a game, and offensive coordinator John Donovan, who probably should have never been hired, was fired on Sunday as well. The Huskies need to win two of three to reach bowl eligibility, and they do have "we've got nothing to lose" potential, but barring turnovers and/or a miraculous offensive performance (from a team that hasn't topped 24 points since September), ASU's advantage should be greater than 5.5 points.
Pick: Arizona State -5.5
No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-5.5, 64) at Virginia Cavaliers, 7:30 p.m. ET
Sports Betting
NFL: MVP, Super Bowl futures watch
NFL: Wilson, Rodgers status shifts lines
NFL: Every team's record vs. the spread
CBB: Gonzaga again favored to win title
NBA: Nets favored; bettors back Lakers
NBA: Best bets for the 2021-22 season
MLB: Dodgers favorites to win '22 Series
NHL: Best future bets for the season
NHL: Awards watch: McDavid for Hart?
ESPN Chalk home
Fortenbaugh: The state slogan may be "Virginia is for lovers," but this Saturday night in Charlottesville I'm switching that to "Virginia is for overs." After all, the Cavaliers fit the bill, ranking 11th in scoring and 102nd in scoring defense. Virginia has been involved in some exhilarating shootouts this season, with 115 total points being scored in the BYU game, 98 points produced in the North Carolina showdown, 88 points totaled in the Georgia Tech matchup and 67 points accumulated in the Louisville contest. I'm sure Brian Kelly and Notre Dame will be happy to oblige with an offense that has scored a healthy average of 35 points per game since being held to just 13 points against Cincinnati back on Oct. 2.
Pick: Over 64
Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Longhorns (-30.5, 61.5), 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU
Fulghum: You know the deal by now; fade Kansas football. Outside of its strangely competitive game against Oklahoma a few weeks ago, Kansas has been consistently getting waxed by the competition. The Jayhawks are 1-8 ATS this season and have a -249 point differential this season. Steve Sarkisian & Co. should run it up at will Saturday night in Austin.
Pick: Texas -30.5
Colorado Buffaloes at UCLA Bruins (-16.5, 57), 9 p.m. ET
Kezirian: Colorado has found an offense, scoring a combined 66 points in its last two games. It actually makes sense. Most teams evolve throughout the season, and that is particularly applicable with a freshman quarterback. Additionally, the Buffs are surrendering tons of points and thus find themselves facing relaxed defenses or even reserves in garbage time. Enter UCLA, which ranks in the bottom half of the country in various defensive statistics. The Bruins have lost back-to-back games but also have USC on deck, so I can envision an apathetic effort. All in all, I think we see enough points to cash the over.
Pick: Over 57
Nevada Wolf Pack at No. 22 San Diego State Aztecs (-2, 45.5), 10:30 p.m. ET
Fortenbaugh: San Diego State at any price cheaper than -3 is worth a play because Nevada should have lost to San Jose State last week. The Wolf Pack closed as a 12.5-point favorite and won by just three points despite being outgained by 82 total yards. Had Nevada lost that game like it should have, this price would be Aztecs -3.5 or greater, in my opinion. Styles make fights, and in this fight SDSU has a big edge in two key departments. First, the Aztecs love to run the ball, which will be problematic in the trenches for a Nevada program that ranks 79th in the country in opponent yards per rushing attempt (5.4). Second, Nevada's strength is its passing attack (third in the NCAA), which should be limited by an Aztecs defense that ranks fourth in the nation in opponent yards per passing attempt (5.4). Throw in SDSU's significant edge on special teams and I'm happy to lay two points in this spot.
Pick: San Diego State -2
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Co-hosted by Joe Fortenbaugh and Tyler Fulghum, Bet is available for live and on-demand viewing on the ESPN App and on ESPN's social media feeds on YouTube, Facebook and Twitter. Watch
Hale: Wait, did we say Tulane was the best 1-8 team in America? Upon further review, UNLV is the best 1-8 team in America. But they're both really terrific 1-8 teams. The Rebels are coming off their first win and have had a lead in the second half five times this season (they are just 1-4 in those games). The point is, UNLV is making progress under second-year coach Marcus Arroyo. Hawai'i, meanwhile, rarely embraces its role as favorite. The Rainbow Warriors are just 5-22-1 against the spread as a favorite since 2015. The road mark is even worse. Hawai'i has lost seven of its last nine road games and is just 1-4 ATS away from home in 2021. Plus, a 4 p.m. Eastern kickoff is essentially the same as asking Hawai'i to kick off at 9 a.m. on a Tuesday.
Pick: UNLV +3
No. 11 Texas A&M Aggies (-2.5, 55.5) at No. 15 Ole Miss Rebels, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
Hale: It might be easy to look at Texas A&M's recent scoring totals -- 41 vs. Alabama, 35 vs. Missouri, 44 against South Carolina -- and assume Jimbo Fisher has worked out the kinks in the Aggies' offense. Perhaps. But in that 41-point outburst against the Tide, A&M finished with 379 total yards. It wasn't all that much better against Missouri (431) or the Gamecocks (477), and last week produced another mediocre performance against Auburn (409 yards, 20 points). The 477 yards against the Gamecocks represents a season high for A&M vs. a Power 5 opponent, while Ole Miss has finished with fewer than 464 just once (291 against Alabama). Of the Aggies' 15 touchdowns scored from the Alabama game through Auburn, three came via special teams or defense, and three more came after A&M got the ball in its opponent's territory.
Ole Miss has a massive advantage at QB, and while the Rebels' offense has felt a bit off the past few games, they've also held three of their last four opponents to 26 points or fewer. A&M needs big plays to score and has thrown for more than 200 yards just once against a Power 5 opponent. That's a good matchup for the Ole Miss D. Oddly, this is also just the second true road game of the season for A&M (which played Colorado in Denver and Arkansas in Dallas); the first was against lowly Missouri. FPI says the Rebels should be favored by 1.5, so we're happy to take the points here.
Pick: Ole Miss +2.5
Arizona State Sun Devils (-5.5, 44) at Washington Huskies, 7 p.m. ET
Connelly: Arizona State overcame three turnovers to handle USC comfortably last week. The Sun Devils outgained the Trojans by 2.6 yards per play and probably should have won by a lot more than 15. Now they face a UW team that has plenty of reasons to just about pack it in. Head coach Jimmy Lake has been suspended for a game, and offensive coordinator John Donovan, who probably should have never been hired, was fired on Sunday as well. The Huskies need to win two of three to reach bowl eligibility, and they do have "we've got nothing to lose" potential, but barring turnovers and/or a miraculous offensive performance (from a team that hasn't topped 24 points since September), ASU's advantage should be greater than 5.5 points.
Pick: Arizona State -5.5
No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-5.5, 64) at Virginia Cavaliers, 7:30 p.m. ET
Sports Betting
NFL: MVP, Super Bowl futures watch
NFL: Wilson, Rodgers status shifts lines
NFL: Every team's record vs. the spread
CBB: Gonzaga again favored to win title
NBA: Nets favored; bettors back Lakers
NBA: Best bets for the 2021-22 season
MLB: Dodgers favorites to win '22 Series
NHL: Best future bets for the season
NHL: Awards watch: McDavid for Hart?
ESPN Chalk home
Fortenbaugh: The state slogan may be "Virginia is for lovers," but this Saturday night in Charlottesville I'm switching that to "Virginia is for overs." After all, the Cavaliers fit the bill, ranking 11th in scoring and 102nd in scoring defense. Virginia has been involved in some exhilarating shootouts this season, with 115 total points being scored in the BYU game, 98 points produced in the North Carolina showdown, 88 points totaled in the Georgia Tech matchup and 67 points accumulated in the Louisville contest. I'm sure Brian Kelly and Notre Dame will be happy to oblige with an offense that has scored a healthy average of 35 points per game since being held to just 13 points against Cincinnati back on Oct. 2.
Pick: Over 64
Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Longhorns (-30.5, 61.5), 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU
Fulghum: You know the deal by now; fade Kansas football. Outside of its strangely competitive game against Oklahoma a few weeks ago, Kansas has been consistently getting waxed by the competition. The Jayhawks are 1-8 ATS this season and have a -249 point differential this season. Steve Sarkisian & Co. should run it up at will Saturday night in Austin.
Pick: Texas -30.5
Colorado Buffaloes at UCLA Bruins (-16.5, 57), 9 p.m. ET
Kezirian: Colorado has found an offense, scoring a combined 66 points in its last two games. It actually makes sense. Most teams evolve throughout the season, and that is particularly applicable with a freshman quarterback. Additionally, the Buffs are surrendering tons of points and thus find themselves facing relaxed defenses or even reserves in garbage time. Enter UCLA, which ranks in the bottom half of the country in various defensive statistics. The Bruins have lost back-to-back games but also have USC on deck, so I can envision an apathetic effort. All in all, I think we see enough points to cash the over.
Pick: Over 57
Nevada Wolf Pack at No. 22 San Diego State Aztecs (-2, 45.5), 10:30 p.m. ET
Fortenbaugh: San Diego State at any price cheaper than -3 is worth a play because Nevada should have lost to San Jose State last week. The Wolf Pack closed as a 12.5-point favorite and won by just three points despite being outgained by 82 total yards. Had Nevada lost that game like it should have, this price would be Aztecs -3.5 or greater, in my opinion. Styles make fights, and in this fight SDSU has a big edge in two key departments. First, the Aztecs love to run the ball, which will be problematic in the trenches for a Nevada program that ranks 79th in the country in opponent yards per rushing attempt (5.4). Second, Nevada's strength is its passing attack (third in the NCAA), which should be limited by an Aztecs defense that ranks fourth in the nation in opponent yards per passing attempt (5.4). Throw in SDSU's significant edge on special teams and I'm happy to lay two points in this spot.
Pick: San Diego State -2
Sports Reporter Midweek Update Wk 11.pdf
drive.google.com
Newsletter Tracking (through 11/15/2021) from Mendoza Line
Updated for Monday night game
Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season.
Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.
CKO (we've gotten this one only twice this season)
11* (0-3-0)
10* (4-6-0)
o/u (1-1-0)
Gridiron Gold Sheet (we've seen this one only once this season)
NCAA Best Bets (2-4-0)
NFL Best Bets (1-2-1)
Marc Lawrence's Playbook NCAA
5* (5-4-2)
4* (8-3-0)
3* (9-2-0)
Upset pick (7-4-0)
Betcha Didn't Know (9-3-0)
Awesome Angle (5-6-1)
Incredible Stat (4-6-0)
Marc Lawrence's Playbook NFL (3-0 this week)
5* (5-5-0)
4* (8-2-0)
3* (6-4-0)
Pointwise NCAA (5-2-1 this week)
1* (11-11-0)
2* (3-8-0)
3* (5-6-0)
4* (12-9-1)
5* (12-10-0)
Pointwise NFL (5-0 this week)
3* (5-5-0)
4* (13-7-0)
5* (12-7-1)
Power Sweep NCAA
4* (4-7-0)
3* (12-10-0)
2* (14-7-1)
Underdog Play of the Week (6-5-0)
Tech Play of the Week (3-4-0)
Revenge Play of the Week (5-3-1)
Situational Play of the Week (4-4-0)
Series Play of the Week (7-2-0)
Power Sweep NFL
4* (5-5-0)
3* (5-5-0)
2* (5-5-0)
4* Pro Angle (2-2-0)
3* o/u play (3-7-0)
Powers' Picks NCAA
3* (15-5-0)
2* (11-23-1)
1* (0-0-0)
Powers' Picks NFL
4* (0-0-0)
3* (6-4-1)
2* (12-13-0)
1* (0-0-0)
Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NCAA Best Bets (21-21-0)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NFL Best Bets (12-8-0)
Red Sheet
90* (0-0-0)
89* (14-8-0)
88* (23-20-1)
Winning Points
NCAA 4* (6-4-0)
NCAA 3* (4-6-0)
NFL 4* (4-6-0)
NFL 3* (6-3-1)
Killer Sports, not including teasers (not publishing this season)
SBB 4.5* (0-0-0)
SBB 4* (0-0-0)
Cajun NCAA (0-0-0)
Pick 60 Play of the Week (0-0-0)
Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet (0-4 this week)
3* (5-12-0)
2* (8-6-0)
Team Total of the Week (4-6-0)
Power Plays
NCAA 4.5* (20-9-0)
NCAA 4* (23-28-1)
NFL 4* (4-6-0)
Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (22-36-0)
NFL Key Releases (17-13-0)
ITPB (we didn't see this one this week)
NCAA (24-26-0)
NFL (7-5-0)
Kenny White
NCAA (26-19-0)
NFL (7-10-0)
Updated for Monday night game
Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season.
Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.
CKO (we've gotten this one only twice this season)
11* (0-3-0)
10* (4-6-0)
o/u (1-1-0)
Gridiron Gold Sheet (we've seen this one only once this season)
NCAA Best Bets (2-4-0)
NFL Best Bets (1-2-1)
Marc Lawrence's Playbook NCAA
5* (5-4-2)
4* (8-3-0)
3* (9-2-0)
Upset pick (7-4-0)
Betcha Didn't Know (9-3-0)
Awesome Angle (5-6-1)
Incredible Stat (4-6-0)
Marc Lawrence's Playbook NFL (3-0 this week)
5* (5-5-0)
4* (8-2-0)
3* (6-4-0)
Pointwise NCAA (5-2-1 this week)
1* (11-11-0)
2* (3-8-0)
3* (5-6-0)
4* (12-9-1)
5* (12-10-0)
Pointwise NFL (5-0 this week)
3* (5-5-0)
4* (13-7-0)
5* (12-7-1)
Power Sweep NCAA
4* (4-7-0)
3* (12-10-0)
2* (14-7-1)
Underdog Play of the Week (6-5-0)
Tech Play of the Week (3-4-0)
Revenge Play of the Week (5-3-1)
Situational Play of the Week (4-4-0)
Series Play of the Week (7-2-0)
Power Sweep NFL
4* (5-5-0)
3* (5-5-0)
2* (5-5-0)
4* Pro Angle (2-2-0)
3* o/u play (3-7-0)
Powers' Picks NCAA
3* (15-5-0)
2* (11-23-1)
1* (0-0-0)
Powers' Picks NFL
4* (0-0-0)
3* (6-4-1)
2* (12-13-0)
1* (0-0-0)
Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NCAA Best Bets (21-21-0)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NFL Best Bets (12-8-0)
Red Sheet
90* (0-0-0)
89* (14-8-0)
88* (23-20-1)
Winning Points
NCAA 4* (6-4-0)
NCAA 3* (4-6-0)
NFL 4* (4-6-0)
NFL 3* (6-3-1)
Killer Sports, not including teasers (not publishing this season)
SBB 4.5* (0-0-0)
SBB 4* (0-0-0)
Cajun NCAA (0-0-0)
Pick 60 Play of the Week (0-0-0)
Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet (0-4 this week)
3* (5-12-0)
2* (8-6-0)
Team Total of the Week (4-6-0)
Power Plays
NCAA 4.5* (20-9-0)
NCAA 4* (23-28-1)
NFL 4* (4-6-0)
Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (22-36-0)
NFL Key Releases (17-13-0)
ITPB (we didn't see this one this week)
NCAA (24-26-0)
NFL (7-5-0)
Kenny White
NCAA (26-19-0)
NFL (7-10-0)
Last edited:
Power Plays Wk 12.pdf
drive.google.com
Power Sweep Wk 12.pdf
drive.google.com
FootballGoldSheet-week11.pdf
drive.google.com
this is last weeksFootballGoldSheet-week11.pdf
