Arbed out of my Pirates overnight bet with a ~25 on initial value at risk.
Leaving my overnight medium play on Marlins as is. Avgerage lay of +142
Upgrade on the Tigers. Market has downgraded them off the open. Will open a small/medium on them. Avgerage lay -103
Downgraded the Orioles, but adding a little bit to my small position. Risking small to win medium. Average lay +183
Leaving my overnight medium play on Marlins as is. Avgerage lay of +142
Upgrade on the Tigers. Market has downgraded them off the open. Will open a small/medium on them. Avgerage lay -103
Downgraded the Orioles, but adding a little bit to my small position. Risking small to win medium. Average lay +183
I liked Tampa on the overnight. Got in early with an average lay of +132 (medium). I have had a bearish valuation of Niemann relative to the market consitently for the last 2 months (either betting against him or laying off betting on the Rays, a team whom I have been net long on during that duration). When I saw him undervalued on the open, I was confident the market would significantly bid down the number based on the notion that his recent performance has given no reason to warrant a convergence in my pricing of him relative to the markets). At the current price they still appear to have enough value to warrant a small play. I think they currently have more value on tommorrows price (-143).
I think regression is starting to pick up with the Mariners, and the market may be slow to the draw given the fact they have recently added Wilson and have gotten Lopez and Beltre back from injury- whose intrinsic value added may be less than what the added premiun the market has given them. They have played 7 games in their last 20 against teams with a winning record, and have won only 10. This team is much worse than their record indicates.
Thanks K-Rod once again within a week. Schneider made a great play and he was out at home but the ump says different. Rays choked up a 4 run lead going into bot 7th. Not even tough luck can keep me from losing today. If Mets and Rays won it would of been a marvelous night now it'll probably just turn into a little profit.
i just wanted to revisit this for shits and giggles....
i had marlins at 4-2 with calling the under......final was 3-2 fish
we both wrong about royals......
reds up 10-5 and likely to win in 9th.......but man how the hell can u bet against lincecum there with sucha bad team...nevertheless, a huge winner that for most , goes unplayed
