8/6 MLB Discussion

[TheHungerForMore]

Fuck Mets line shot up

 

[TheHungerForMore]

All these line movements are sick.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Buying Indians at +140 right medium.

Will have a small play on Bosox, line is still creeping up.

 

[buffettgambler]

I am well aware of the markets bearish sentiment on the Indians, but I am somewhat suprised to see them take the line where they did. Large play on the Indians.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

I am well aware of the markets bearish sentiment on the Indians, but I am somewhat suprised to see them take the line where they did. Large play on the Indians.

What do you do if the Nats get up to +160 or more?

 

[buffettgambler]

The oddsmakers opened the no-vig Marlins line at -109. In less than 24 hours and no knew material information, the market sent the no-vig line to -160.
Buying back about half of my overnight position for a huge arb. Still will leave a small/medium play on the Marlins/

 

[TheHungerForMore]

The oddsmakers opened the no-vig Marlins line at -109. In less than 24 hours and no knew material information, the market sent the no-vig line to -160.
Buying back about half of my overnight position for a huge arb. Still will leave a small/medium play on the Marlins/

I have 1.9 unit to win 1.5 on Marlins. What's the correct buy out? .50 to win .80 on Nats if +160 or more?

 

[mp5070]

I like the over 9 in Marlins and Phils -1.5

 

[buffettgambler]

I have 1.9 unit to win 1.5 on Marlins. What's the correct buy out? .50 to win .80 on Nats if +160 or more?

It would also be dependent on where you value the line when you placed the bet, where you value the line now, and your implied kelly ratio.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Gay, no Adam Jones in the line up.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Made Indians large play medium on +140 and rest on +145.

Probably will do the same in the Met game, gotta wait for the line up card first.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

I feel like i didn't get a great enough line on the Marlins to warrant some buy back.

 

[buffettgambler]

Downgrade on the Orioles. Bought back 15% of original position for same price I got in. Still a small/medium on the Orioles.

 

[buffettgambler]

I feel like i didn't get a great enough line on the Marlins to warrant some buy back.

What was your entry price. What is your intrinsic value?

 

[TheHungerForMore]

What was your entry price. What is your intrinsic value?

around -142

 

[TheHungerForMore]

bought them at -127

 

[buffettgambler]

Leaving my small to win medium play on the Rockies that I entered on the overnight at +163. No material change in intrinsic value based on lineup information.

 

[buffettgambler]

bought them at -127

That would certainly warrant a buyback and then some. According to your valuation, you are leaving +EV on the table by not buying into the Nats (assuming you do not implement a margin of safey on your valuation).

 

[TheHungerForMore]

That would certainly warrant a buyback and then some. According to your valuation, you are leaving +EV on the table by not buying into the Nats (assuming you do not implement a margin of safey on your valuation).

Will buy 25% back of what i wagered and Marlins will remain a small play. Should hit +160 or more.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Bosox is shaping up to become a small/med play for me, how about you?