8/22 Overnight MLB Discussion

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LA Angels at Toronto:

Interesting game after a nice little comeback by LA came up short. Santana faces Richmond in a decent matchup. Both pitchers have pitched decent of late while Santana comes in 3-0 in August. Santana has been decent throughout his career in August and September and expect a good performance today if it wasn't in Toronto. For some reason this stadium or team has hit him well in the past. Obviously, this is a different team but mind blocks due play into pitchers heads at time.

Richmond on the other hand has been a nice little surprise. He's not facing Hunter or Napoli in today's lineup. He's never faced the Angels in his career.

I believe the line is efficient at the moment.
 

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gg and bg...who are some of the middle plays for tonight at first glance...

houston +110
florida +160
balt +170
clev -125
 

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Lets spark up a discussion on Ari/Hou. Right now its a no play for me unless the market open more value for the DBacks. Even though Max Scherzer has had some rough outing my valuation on him is pretty high and respective. On the other hand for Brian Moehler I'm pretty bearish on him, still with the line up differences i give Scherzer the upper hand in this match up.

GG, BG, alldogs please chip in on this.
 
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Lets spark up a discussion on Ari/Hou. Right now its a no play for me unless the market open more value for the DBacks. Even though Max Scherzer has had some rough outing my valuation on him is pretty high and respective. On the other hand for Brian Moehler I'm pretty bearish on him, still with the line up differences i give Scherzer the upper hand in this match up.

GG, BG, alldogs please chip in on this.

I'm looking at it right now. Moehler is 2-6 with a 6.44 ERA in 11 home starts this year. He's faced Az already and didn't have a quality start and took the loss.

Sherzer on the other hand has faced Houston in a relief (debut) appearance for 4.33 innings pitching perfect and striking out 7. In August and September he's increased his So/BB ratio in limited two season action.

Houston is a team that has struck out a lot over the year and facing a power SO pitcher may be a good spot to play them. They are 15th in the league in SO.

Arizona hasn't had many ab's vs Moehler, however at the small percentage they do hit or expected lineup average will be 330 or above. On the opposite side the Astros have had 12 ab's and no hits vs Sherzer.

Home Plate Umpire: 16 -9 in favor of Home team with an over/under value 13-11. Over/Under opened at 8.5 and staying right there.
 

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I'm looking at it right now. Moehler is 2-6 with a 6.44 ERA in 11 home starts this year. He's faced Az already and didn't have a quality start and took the loss.

Sherzer on the other hand has faced Houston in a relief (debut) appearance for 4.33 innings pitching perfect and striking out 7. In August and September he's increased his So/BB ratio in limited two season action.

Houston is a team that has struck out a lot over the year and facing a power SO pitcher may be a good spot to play them. They are 15th in the league in SO.

Arizona hasn't had many ab's vs Moehler, however at the small percentage they do hit or expected lineup average will be 330 or above. On the opposite side the Astros have had 12 ab's and no hits vs Sherzer.

Home Plate Umpire: 16 -9 in favor of Home team with an over/under value 13-11. Over/Under opened at 8.5 and staying right there.
Nicely done.
 

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I was seeing value on the Dodgers until. but downgraded them with the replacements they put in their line up today.
 

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After digging deeper i actually like that their stacking the right side of the plate.

Dodgers small/medium play +103
 
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I've locked some teams in:

Arizona -117
Cleveland -127
Colorado RL EV
Washington -130
Florida +155

At the moment.
 

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I've locked some teams in:

Arizona -117
Cleveland -127
Colorado RL EV
Washington -130
Florida +155

At the moment.
Similar card. Instead of Col and Was. Alberto Gonzalez is getting the start today that is certainly a plus, but Guzman taking the day off. The bottom of the line up is too weak which knocked down a lot of cents of their worth.

Market has opened up some opportunity to back the Diamondbacks now, currently -109. I just have to wait on the line ups.
 
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Similar card. Instead of Col and Was. Alberto Gonzalez is getting the start today that is certainly a plus, but Guzman taking the day off. The bottom of the line up is too weak which knocked down a lot of cents of their worth.

Market has opened up some opportunity to back the Diamondbacks now, currently -109. I just have to wait on the line ups.

I'm really bullish on De La Rosa who's really been solid all year for this team. Obviously, with Cook going on DL he needs to pitch well. They are facing Lincecum tomorrow and this game in their minds (not a mind reader) is a must win.

On Washington, I'm figuring that Lannan must go 7 or more in this game and Milwaukee hasn't been too successful vs lefty record wise. I feel that AZ game has hit bottom. I missed out by 4-7 cents but still like it.
 

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