Interesting what do you see in the Nats? J.D. left handed batters are hitting him at a .404 clip and .719 SLG, his secondary pitch the slider is still getting slapped hard. He isn't fooling no one, 4 totals strikes out this month? Even though i upgraded his worth that may because of the level of line ups he faced and breaks that have gone his way. He doesn't have a good ground ball to fly ball ratio. In my opinion he is fortunate to have a ERA of 4.61.
Wouldn't playing in this ball park benefit Looper?
I thought Chi/Lad line was efficiently set. Curious to see what value you see on this game.
I agree with Tb, good match-up for Kazmir and he is quietly improving. We're getting line value here because of his ERA, but he is a better pitcher than that. Dustin Nippert to some he looks appealing to back because of his W/L record which doesn't really tell the story.
I think the market has undervalued Martin every game since his call up, and has ignored his current form. You bring up a good point about left handed hitters. That is a bit of a concern, but a stat that has been improving in recent starts. I am not sure if you are interpreting his cutter as his slider, but Martin does not have that pitch in his arsenal. He is a four pitch pitcher (fastball, cutter, curve, change). Who is a strike thrower that relies on getting hitters behind the counter early and use the secondary pitches to get them out. The problem early on was that those secondary pitches, mainly the curve and change up were highly ineffective, something that has been the opposite in recent outings. He is more of a pitch to contact pitcher, so his low strike out rate is not a concern. A high walk rate would be, but that has not been a problem. You make a good point about the breaks he has faced as well, as his FIP is nearly a run higher than his ERA. But I am not sure if I agree with your assesment on a "bad" ground ball to flyball ratio. I am not sure this ratio is fungible for all pitchers. Martin is a flyball pitcher. His flyball rate is closely aligned with his method of pitching. Now, if he was a sinkerball pitcher, his current ratio would be alarming. His infield flyball rate is high (a good thing), his well hit ball ratio is declining, and his home run per flyball has also be tapered in his last two outings. It looks like nerves got the best of him early on, and he appears back on track.
But this is only partially a play on Martin. Looper is prone to wearing down late in the season. It looks like he is heading that way again. He has allowed at least one home run in each of his last five outings, and his striekout to walk ratio has materially declined over the last two months. It looks like a sign of dead arm to me. The Nats lineup is underrated. This is also a team that is 11-7 in the month of August. The Brewers appear to be being priced on name value on not production. This is a team that has been on a 16-27 run, and has shown no signs of getting out of this prolong downturn, and instead have been dismantling their team. The Brewers strength has always been their lineup, which has now become a facet with holes in it.
It looks like the market is agreeing, droping the line down 6% since my buy in. At the current price, the Nats would only warrant a small play in my opinion.
