I currently have the line valued at Marlins -105/ Astros +105, so I feel oddsmakers had a more accurate valuation on this game than the market, who has elected to bid up the price on the Marlins.
A few starts ago I made a comment that we probably have seen the best of Rodriguez and there is a pretty strong liklihood of serious regression going foward. That comment proved to be premature, as he put forth a couple good outings after that comment was made. However, I still feel that there is a good chance he will not finish the season strong, and his last outing may be a sign that his production peaked 2 starts ago.
That said, on a foward looking basis, I am not expecting Rogriguez to be a liability on the mound, just not nearly as good as his first 3 quarters suggest. I am not too worried about his last start. He has proven to be a good bounceback starter, prone to horrible outings away from home, and has been hampered by a hamstring injury that has been getting progressively better. If anything, that start was a value creator for Wandy, as the market has aggresively wanted to shy away from him.
I really say anything bad about Johnson except that the market may be starting to get a little overly bullish on him. If this goes down to the bullpens, I like the Astros chances.
I give the Marlins a slighly higher chance of winning this game, but the market just opened up a spot to start nibbling on the Astros.
It happens. I'm aware of Mariners bullpen situation. Moving on to the overnight card right now.
I have +121 on Hou medium, will most likely upgrade if it hits +125.
Kind of regretting that i didn't bet more on O's +275 on the overnight, then i could of sold a lot back but they will remain a small play.
I was hoping the market would create some value on the Braves, not looking like its going to happen.
i think the market is going to keep on betting down that braves line, might end close to a pk
huge pitching edge to mets but the mets bats are struggling as of late losing people to injuries
i learned a theory about teams that tend to score many runs in one game...aka braves (15) tend to not score many the next, throw in the fact that they now face johan, looks like a 5-1 game to mets
huge pitching edge to mets but the mets bats are struggling as of late losing people to injuries
i learned a theory about teams that tend to score many runs in one game...aka braves (15) tend to not score many the next, throw in the fact that they now face johan, looks like a 5-1 game to mets
This is what I'm on so far:
Aug 20 07:10 PM
INET / -1 Aug 2009:36 AM
MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[957] ATL BRAVES +113
( K KAWAKAMI-R/ ACTION )
Aug 20 08:05 PM
INET / -1 Aug 2009:52 AM
MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[959] FLA MARLINS -118
( J JOHNSON -R/ ACTION )
Aug 20 07:05 PM
INET / -1 Aug 2001:47 PM
MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[967] BOS REDSOX -165
( J LESTER -L/ ACTION )
Aug 20 07:05 PM
INET / -1 Aug 2006:16 PM
MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[972] CLE INDIANS +145
( ACTION /MASTERSON -R )
Aug 20 07:10 PM
INET / -1 Aug 2009:36 AM
MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[957] ATL BRAVES +113
( K KAWAKAMI-R/ ACTION )
Aug 20 08:05 PM
INET / -1 Aug 2009:52 AM
MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[959] FLA MARLINS -118
( J JOHNSON -R/ ACTION )
Aug 20 07:05 PM
INET / -1 Aug 2001:47 PM
MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[967] BOS REDSOX -165
( J LESTER -L/ ACTION )
Aug 20 07:05 PM
INET / -1 Aug 2006:16 PM
MLB
STRAIGHT BET
[972] CLE INDIANS +145
( ACTION /MASTERSON -R )
No pain at all. This forum would be much better off if more people engaged in contructive conversations and questioning.
With the game already going, I will keep it short. The Angels are a secular overvalued team. The market has also been bearish on the Indians. It is hard to imagine the Angels not being overvalued in this one. Lackey has been one of the better second half pitchers this season. How long it can last remains in question, but oddsmakers are not afraid to inflate his price. He matches up least best against lefty filled lineups. The Indians have thrown out five against him. The Indians match up best against power pitchers, and Lackey's style particularly. La Porta has not shown much, but has great upside and is a material upgrade over whom he is replacing. This is something I do not feel the market is accurately quanitfying.
The Angels are throwing out a "get away day lineup", benching Hunter, Napoli, and Kendrick. The Indians have very quietly have been playing better baseball of late, going 15-11 in their last 26. They have a lot of young players playing hard and having something to prove.
