The nominal sizes of my bets is predicated on the Kelly Critierion, thus percieved edge. Each games perceived edge will surely be different, and all bets I deem large simply can not have the same edge when compared to each other, especially when counting line movement and me moving in and out of positions throughout the day.
Taking the losing day and buying out of my Dodgers play.
Couldn't catch a break today.
Scherzer coming out sizzling and overpowering ATL then makes a dumb mental mistake and melts down.
Ump calling ball 4 a strike on Harris with the bases loaded and Mauer on deck.
Adam Jones gets two hanging breaking balls with a man on two different occasions to take the lead and doesn't take advantage. Ervin throwin hangers and hittable pitches all night, yet people will look at his stats and think he pitched fantastic.
Just needed to rant.
Couldn't catch a break today.
Scherzer coming out sizzling and overpowering ATL then makes a dumb mental mistake and melts down.
Ump calling ball 4 a strike on Harris with the bases loaded and Mauer on deck.
Adam Jones gets two hanging breaking balls with a man on two different occasions to take the lead and doesn't take advantage. Ervin throwin hangers and hittable pitches all night, yet people will look at his stats and think he pitched fantastic.
Just needed to rant.
buffett,
you don't have to answer this if you don't want to...do you bet baseball for a living? or any other sport?
i just ask because it seems like you are great at getting the best line and buying out and getting in at the best times in order to have the least juice possible on the wager and that takes time.
you don't have to answer this if you don't want to...do you bet baseball for a living? or any other sport?
i just ask because it seems like you are great at getting the best line and buying out and getting in at the best times in order to have the least juice possible on the wager and that takes time.
i figured that but was just curious
just wanted to say that you are the most valuable poster in regards to baseball and appreciate all the insight you've been giving in this thread along with the others as well
keep up the good work!! its been a week of bad beats for me and can never be on the side of a good "beat" baseball is a marathon and not a sprint. gl tomorrow and hope your around to give us your analysis of tomorrows game
opening lines and thoughts:
think pedro is getting overvalued but zona coming back from atlanta to play hotting hitting phils with garland on the mound
value with the pirates
think royals have some small value
dont see too much at all but thats at first glance and not actually running any numbers or anything like that, hope to hear you thoughts
just wanted to say that you are the most valuable poster in regards to baseball and appreciate all the insight you've been giving in this thread along with the others as well
keep up the good work!! its been a week of bad beats for me and can never be on the side of a good "beat" baseball is a marathon and not a sprint. gl tomorrow and hope your around to give us your analysis of tomorrows game
opening lines and thoughts:
think pedro is getting overvalued but zona coming back from atlanta to play hotting hitting phils with garland on the mound
value with the pirates
think royals have some small value
dont see too much at all but thats at first glance and not actually running any numbers or anything like that, hope to hear you thoughts
Hunger, we have all been down this road, but the quicker you become immune to bad breaks the better handicapper you will be (as it can lead to bets predicated on irrationality).
One of the more distinguishable characteristics between successful gamblers and the recreational better is how they handle bad beats, blown saves, ect. The successful handicapper is not concerned or bothered by them, knowing they are bound to happen and are merely noise that will hopefully even out over a large sample size. Instead of letting it effect them, they are out and about seeking their next EV play. The recreational gambler on other hand will try to come up for reasons why it happened, what they could have done differently, and try to conclude whether they were on the right side or not due to this bad break. They also may double up, buy back, eventually reload, or make any other irrational desicions based on this noise. Baseball is a long season and having bad beats can not be avoided.
That said, it would have been interesting to see that ball 4 called on Harris (that pitch is called a ball about 95% of the time). I would not have been suprised if Hunter would not have made it out of that inning. He was struggling in the second.
Hang in there and better luck tommorrow.
Thanks. As you mentioned, a lot of others providing good insight in this thread daily.
I am interested to see where the market takes the Phillies line. The market did not like Pedro nearly as much as oddsmakers in his first start. I don't think he did enough to change their minds. However, oddsmakers have also started to take a liking on Garland. My guess is that both starters are being overvalued, and are offsetting each other. I have the line at -164/+164, so the current market price will prohibit me from entering a position.
I have the Brewers valued at -105. This is with a bearish valuation on Parra. I think we have scene the best best of Ohlendorf. Although his ERA does not reflect a dropdown, his other numbers suggest there is a strong possiblity of it coming. His strikeout rate declined, his walk rate has increased, and his velocity has been down. These are all signs of dead arm.
Card overal does not look appealing again for tommorrow. It doesn't look like I will have any large plays. My biggest position currently is on the White Sox.
Best of luck.
Thanks for being concern and offering advice, but I'm last the person on this forum you have to worry about doubling up, tilting, letting tough breaks mess up my judgments. That stuff is for amateurs and losers. I'm a winner and i shouldn't of posted a rant. I understand baseball is a grind, and I'll keep grinding it.
Once again thanks, BG.
