The problem with this thread is there's not enough people been in business long enough to know that there are alot of players that win consistenly on STRAIGHT WAGERS, I know I've witnessed it for the last 30yrs, Slim I know guys that will pick you a part if you are looking for any post up money from any of them, I can line it up, and you can keep their bonuses, I'm serious as a heart attack, if you are interested, feel free to get my email from any of the mods.
i am tight with 2 locals in the area, and i can tell you, the same few guys seem to win -- year after year and the same (many) fish, seem to lose year after year. nothing much changes, except a few new guys come on board.. seems 10% win and 90% lose.. one of the bookies is stinking rich.. the other is rising fast... me, i try and take a little off their hands from time to time...
I think Slim may be making a philosophical evaluation of long-term gamblers as an aggregate; he is not stating that NO ONE consistently wins over time. Gambling is based on probability, and Slim may be making a global statement about the law of averages catching up to all cappers over the long haul.
Slim's point, and it is a good one, is that gamblers as a group will have hot streaks, cold streaks, big wins, bad beats, good seasons, bad seasons, etc. There are a few talented and industrious individuals who can cap games and gain a consistent edge on the books (60%?), and there are a few gamblers who won't ever hit 50% in a year. But for most of us, we're somewhere around (and we hope ABOVE) 50%, and if we do things right we had more units on wins than on losses.
Of course, I am now putting words into Slim's mouth, and I may be way off base.
Slim's point, and it is a good one, is that gamblers as a group will have hot streaks, cold streaks, big wins, bad beats, good seasons, bad seasons, etc. There are a few talented and industrious individuals who can cap games and gain a consistent edge on the books (60%?), and there are a few gamblers who won't ever hit 50% in a year. But for most of us, we're somewhere around (and we hope ABOVE) 50%, and if we do things right we had more units on wins than on losses.
Of course, I am now putting words into Slim's mouth, and I may be way off base.
I lost a ton of money up until about 25 years old, Why? because I didnt have a clue. Many of the posters on here remind me of myself then, had all the chat, knew all the so-called tricks, hung out in the right places, never wrong and never ever admitted to being a loser. From then till about 10 years ago, I won a ton of money, Why? because I found out what it takes to win consistantly at betting. A complete understanding of prices and bookmaking, developing a sixth sense of spotting danger and above all, hours and hours of study. Since then I have had neither good nor bad years and realise that my profit or loss on average is dictated by the amount of time I put into it, thats why I am lucky if I win at any other sport than NFL, the only sport I really work at.
As for Arbitrage, scalping, middling, whatever you want to call it, of course one can make it pay. With the competition between books and the Exchanges growing, there is plenty of opportunities to make money this way. However, once again, its a time and quality of life question. When Betfair got going, it was quiet a novelty,and I got sucked into being on there all day and night. Although a good profit was being made, my health seemed to deteriate and socially I became a Hermit, not interested in anything else, frightened to go out in case I missed an earner. Many posters on here profess to win money regularly doing this, of course talk is cheap and the lack of discussion on bots tells a story in itself.
I have often heard punters telling bare-faced lies in Pubs and Race-tracks about their prowess and with the faceless internet it can only be expected that people live in a fantasy world, its only human nature, everyone wants to be seen a winner.
As for Arbitrage, scalping, middling, whatever you want to call it, of course one can make it pay. With the competition between books and the Exchanges growing, there is plenty of opportunities to make money this way. However, once again, its a time and quality of life question. When Betfair got going, it was quiet a novelty,and I got sucked into being on there all day and night. Although a good profit was being made, my health seemed to deteriate and socially I became a Hermit, not interested in anything else, frightened to go out in case I missed an earner. Many posters on here profess to win money regularly doing this, of course talk is cheap and the lack of discussion on bots tells a story in itself.
I have often heard punters telling bare-faced lies in Pubs and Race-tracks about their prowess and with the faceless internet it can only be expected that people live in a fantasy world, its only human nature, everyone wants to be seen a winner.
cincy_hugg said:It is VERY easy to win at gambling - it just depends on HOW MUCH you want to win.
With 10 and 14 cent lines all it takes is discipline and time. With my limited bankroll, I can make $20 per day at Mansion and Pinny betting baseball. It's just that I don't take the $20 and put it in the piggy bank - I use it to reduce the juice on my wagers. If I had a bigger bankroll, I could easily pocket $100/day by simply middling, scalping and hedging. It wouldn't be fun, and it would require work - but I don't gamble to WORK and that is why I can't win.
If you want to work and not have fun, you can win - but why the hell would I want to do that?If I ever told myself that I wanted to gamble for a living, I would make a profit, and I am sure of that.
I don't see why working at it cannot be fun as well
As you know Jay, you like to put things in my mouth or kind of tweak them....
For sakes of this thread Ill comment the following, if you want to go back and find the thread to read my initial comment, please do so, but what I basically said is,
If you play long enough, you lose. You only "win" if you walk away from gambling when you're up. If you do so, props to you. If you keep gambling, its merely a matter of time.
I see sick gambler has joined the thread so I want to make the following disclaimer, Im not referring to scalping, bonus whoring or other techniques.
Having said this, you may proceed
No hide or hair from SLIM at all in 2011..........hope he didn't fall victim to his own words, sincerely hope the kid is A-OK.
Does it count if you gamble for X years, don't walk away, then die while up?
Would one need to be up so many units or dollars, like 100K a year, or would one cent lifetime do it?
I guess we need a definition of "lose" & "win" and if we are speaking of a pro or recreational gambler.
Also are the lines -110 or reduced juice? How many bets would have to be made?
