Nice analysis HFM. Today’s card looks like it is providing some nice value.
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Most people can’t stomach betting on the Nationals as a road favorite, but I think they are coming with some nice value in this one. Lanahan seems to be in a groove right now, and his crafty style matches up well against a young lineup in the Pirates. One has to wonder what the team morale is in <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City>, with all their veteran leaders having been traded. Medium play on the Nats.
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As stated yesterday, it looks like the Marlins are becoming an overvalued entity. I entered a large position on the Cubs last night with an average lay of -112. The market has bid this line up about 10%. The Cubs are still undervalued at the current market price, but obviously not as much compared to the opener.
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The market is really liking the <st1lace>Rockies</st1lace> right now, but they may be chasing past performance rather than future production. This team did not look good in the New York series, is coming off a doubleheader and having to travel after a night game, and are putting a pitcher that struggles against left handed bats on the mound. The market just bid this line up to where the Reds warrant a medium play.
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I entered a medium position on the DBacks last night as an underdog. The market has made them a favorite, and rightfully so. The DBacks are quietly playing .500 ball their last 26 games, 58% of them were against teams with a winning record. Better pitcher and lineup override the bullpen disadvantage in this one. At the current market price, they would warrant a small play.
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I entered a medium position on the Dodgers last night at a price 10 cents worse than the current market price. I am not terribly surprised to see the market initially bid up the Braves price, but I am anticipating buyback here. The initial linemovement may be a go-against a team that had to play 2 extra inning games in a row and later travel. Hanson is pitching over his head and showed signs of regression. He is being priced as if his current form has sustainability. I will probably close with a net long position on the Dodgers with an average lay of +165.
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The market just created nice value on the Astros. Boggs does not warrant such respect, especially after not having pitched a big league game since May. Have not entered a position yet, but will enter a medium position on the Astros at a price around +170.
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Small play on the Brewers.
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Have not entered a play on the Giants, but if the market decides to bid up the Phillies a few cents more, I will enter another small play on them.
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Large play on the Red Sox for the reasons stated yesterday. Not surprised with the markets initial reaction, but would be surprised if they leave it here.
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Medium play on the Indians on the overnight. If the market wants to bid up the Tigers some more, I will finish net long large on Carmona.
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Got in a medium play on the Rays at -200. Market has really moved this line. Will buy back at least half of that position before game time with an arb out.
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Have not entered a play in the Rangers game, but if the market drops the Rangers price a little more, I will put a small play on them.
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Got in on the Twins at -130. Got out all of it with the Angels +148. No current position.
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No current opinion on the Yankees game.
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Small play on the Jays.
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All opinions and positions subject to change.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o> </o>Most people can’t stomach betting on the Nationals as a road favorite, but I think they are coming with some nice value in this one. Lanahan seems to be in a groove right now, and his crafty style matches up well against a young lineup in the Pirates. One has to wonder what the team morale is in <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Pittsburgh</st1lace></st1:City>, with all their veteran leaders having been traded. Medium play on the Nats.<o
> </o>As stated yesterday, it looks like the Marlins are becoming an overvalued entity. I entered a large position on the Cubs last night with an average lay of -112. The market has bid this line up about 10%. The Cubs are still undervalued at the current market price, but obviously not as much compared to the opener.
<o
> </o>The market is really liking the <st1
lace>Rockies</st1lace> right now, but they may be chasing past performance rather than future production. This team did not look good in the New York series, is coming off a doubleheader and having to travel after a night game, and are putting a pitcher that struggles against left handed bats on the mound. The market just bid this line up to where the Reds warrant a medium play.<o
> </o>I entered a medium position on the DBacks last night as an underdog. The market has made them a favorite, and rightfully so. The DBacks are quietly playing .500 ball their last 26 games, 58% of them were against teams with a winning record. Better pitcher and lineup override the bullpen disadvantage in this one. At the current market price, they would warrant a small play.
<o
> </o>I entered a medium position on the Dodgers last night at a price 10 cents worse than the current market price. I am not terribly surprised to see the market initially bid up the Braves price, but I am anticipating buyback here. The initial linemovement may be a go-against a team that had to play 2 extra inning games in a row and later travel. Hanson is pitching over his head and showed signs of regression. He is being priced as if his current form has sustainability. I will probably close with a net long position on the Dodgers with an average lay of +165.
<o
> </o>The market just created nice value on the Astros. Boggs does not warrant such respect, especially after not having pitched a big league game since May. Have not entered a position yet, but will enter a medium position on the Astros at a price around +170.
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> </o>Small play on the Brewers.
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> </o>Have not entered a play on the Giants, but if the market decides to bid up the Phillies a few cents more, I will enter another small play on them.
<o
> </o>Large play on the Red Sox for the reasons stated yesterday. Not surprised with the markets initial reaction, but would be surprised if they leave it here.
<o
> </o>Medium play on the Indians on the overnight. If the market wants to bid up the Tigers some more, I will finish net long large on Carmona.
<o
> </o>Got in a medium play on the Rays at -200. Market has really moved this line. Will buy back at least half of that position before game time with an arb out.
<o
> </o>Have not entered a play in the Rangers game, but if the market drops the Rangers price a little more, I will put a small play on them.
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> </o><o
> </o>Got in on the Twins at -130. Got out all of it with the Angels +148. No current position.
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> </o>No current opinion on the Yankees game.
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> </o>Small play on the Jays.
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> </o>All opinions and positions subject to change.
I would take a chance with the Giants if they hit +170 for a small play.
Couldn't have a opinion on the Astros/Cardinals since i haven't seen any these pitchers really but the situation at this price looks good.
Nice price on the Diamondbacks and the market agrees. Mets have been overachieving with this mini run on offense and are winning due to good pitching.
I'm trying to configure out this Mariners/Rangers line.
Couldn't have a opinion on the Astros/Cardinals since i haven't seen any these pitchers really but the situation at this price looks good.
Nice price on the Diamondbacks and the market agrees. Mets have been overachieving with this mini run on offense and are winning due to good pitching.
I'm trying to configure out this Mariners/Rangers line.
i like the post...keep them coming...
here is the only problem i have the dodgers tonight..
looking back at the braves last 11 home game they have won 9 of 11. you do have to admit they are playing well at home. add to the fact they come home tonight after being on the road, where they sleep in their own bed, and have a home crowd on a friday night.
looking at the dodgers they have scored 8 total runs in their last 4 games. and two of them coming in the 10th last night. dodgers have PLAYED 25 INNINGS the past TWO day. dodgers are having a hard time finding runs. then add to the fact, their on a long road trip which ends soon.
i'm just not sure i'm ready to bet on jason schmit yet. I like they way you broke down the game.. and the dodgers may very well win. but i'm gonna stay out of this one...
here is the only problem i have the dodgers tonight..
looking back at the braves last 11 home game they have won 9 of 11. you do have to admit they are playing well at home. add to the fact they come home tonight after being on the road, where they sleep in their own bed, and have a home crowd on a friday night.
looking at the dodgers they have scored 8 total runs in their last 4 games. and two of them coming in the 10th last night. dodgers have PLAYED 25 INNINGS the past TWO day. dodgers are having a hard time finding runs. then add to the fact, their on a long road trip which ends soon.
i'm just not sure i'm ready to bet on jason schmit yet. I like they way you broke down the game.. and the dodgers may very well win. but i'm gonna stay out of this one...
Blue Jays are stacking right hand batters, eight in the lineup, Braden avg vs righties is nearly .300 (.295) and doesn't have a strong strike out walk ratio against them, 49K 31 BB. He has been getting hit. giving a lot of free passes and struggling at fooling hitters lately.
Oakland offense is overachieving right now. small to medium level play here at +119 especially after losing a few cents of the high.
Oakland offense is overachieving right now. small to medium level play here at +119 especially after losing a few cents of the high.
Originally Posted by chacheee
i like the post...keep them coming...
here is the only problem i have the dodgers tonight..
looking back at the braves last 11 home game they have won 9 of 11. you do have to admit they are playing well at home. add to the fact they come home tonight after being on the road, where they sleep in their own bed, and have a home crowd on a friday night.
looking at the dodgers they have scored 8 total runs in their last 4 games. and two of them coming in the 10th last night. dodgers have PLAYED 25 INNINGS the past TWO day. dodgers are having a hard time finding runs. then add to the fact, their on a long road trip which ends soon.
i'm just not sure i'm ready to bet on jason schmit yet. I like they way you broke down the game.. and the dodgers may very well win. but i'm gonna stay out of this one...
Gotta play the %. Say if i played it at +170 and i think the line should be at -145. It may lose most of the time but i just need them to come out the winner 38% to profit which leads to long term winner.[/I][/I]
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Nice call....gotta give you some credit.. you had it pegged...
i like the post...keep them coming...
here is the only problem i have the dodgers tonight..
looking back at the braves last 11 home game they have won 9 of 11. you do have to admit they are playing well at home. add to the fact they come home tonight after being on the road, where they sleep in their own bed, and have a home crowd on a friday night.
looking at the dodgers they have scored 8 total runs in their last 4 games. and two of them coming in the 10th last night. dodgers have PLAYED 25 INNINGS the past TWO day. dodgers are having a hard time finding runs. then add to the fact, their on a long road trip which ends soon.
i'm just not sure i'm ready to bet on jason schmit yet. I like they way you broke down the game.. and the dodgers may very well win. but i'm gonna stay out of this one...
Gotta play the %. Say if i played it at +170 and i think the line should be at -145. It may lose most of the time but i just need them to come out the winner 38% to profit which leads to long term winner.[/I][/I]
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Nice call....gotta give you some credit.. you had it pegged...
