"I found value on Nolasco in recent prior starts, but I think the market is starting to get ahead of themsevles hear. Normalzing his numbers for quality of lineups he faces, and his hot season is worse than it appears on the surface. He may have his hands full tonight."
If you think this is true then you're right considering Atlanta holds the better bullpen.
I just like what i'm seeing outta Ricky's stuff, his movement and his ability to use all his pitches in any situation to fool hitters. Also feel like oddmakers are overlooking Marlins success currently at the plate right now and overrating Braves. Maybe its cause i thought they were undervalued in their last five games and i have a good read on them right now.
If you think this is true then you're right considering Atlanta holds the better bullpen.
I just like what i'm seeing outta Ricky's stuff, his movement and his ability to use all his pitches in any situation to fool hitters. Also feel like oddmakers are overlooking Marlins success currently at the plate right now and overrating Braves. Maybe its cause i thought they were undervalued in their last five games and i have a good read on them right now.
No doubt that Nolasco's run has been impressive. In his last 8 starts, his K:BB ratio is 64/10, his line drives per balls in plate have materially decreased, while his strike per pitch rate during this uptick has stayed the same (which is a clear sign his movement while locating off the plate has lead to domination). I am not sure if the market is starting to overvalue him or there is another facet to this game in which my perception deviates from the market. I have been net neutral on the Marlins all season, and I doubt that the market is going to devalue Jurrjens with the way he is pitching.
Other notes:
I downgrade my fair value on the Rangers 7 cents with the pitching change. Pinnacle downgrade their fair value of the line (their open with Padilla vs. Mathis) 7 cents as well, but downgraded 15 cents off the market price. The market was quick to react, and bid up their price 7 cents, making their downgrade 8 cents between the pitchers.
Hammels is now a favorite. The Phillies price has increased 22% since the open.
The V shape trading action in the Yankees game has continued. I was anticpating another bid down on the Rays prior to first pitch. It has yet to happen.
The market is really down on the Reds right now. They have bid down a Padres team 18%. I think they went overboard, opening up value on the Reds now.
I found value with the Cubs on the overnight. The market has moved the line against me. I think they are falling in love with Oswalts recent performance. Where was the market during the initial stages of his uptick? They were consistently bidding against him.
The oddsmakers seemed to be generous with the Buehrle opening asking price. I thought the market would bid it down. They left it alone. Somewhat suprising, but I like the White Sox at this price.
I finally made some good money betting against the Angels the last two games. The market continues to love this team, bidding up an inflated line. I will gladly bet against them again.
Looking at small play with Reds, Eckstein and Blanco back in lineup for Padres, however looking over Bronson's career he's fared well and pitched much better after the break. Padres record vs righties 20-41 while the Reds are decent at home vs Righties.
I have a small play on Cubs as I'm betting against bullpen and Berkman until they prove me wrong. Dempster at home is below Oswalt in my ratings but my play is on the Cubs.
Still on Yankees as stated above.
Like the Sox and was hoping that Minnesota backers would keep bumping the price.
Like the Red Sox...Oakland's lineup just came out and wwwweeeee...
Angels...away...
It's hard to not like the Indians at that price going foward with that potent line up right now, especially with the Halos current weak line up.
Reds line went down 30ish cent. Its hard to lay chalk with Arroyo, but the line up differences and bullpen probably makes up for Reds being a play.
I'll probably be on these for small plays.
Seems like oddmakers and market think Buehrle struggles will continue at this ball park. Maybe worth a medium play?
Thanks for the analysis and breakdowns Gordon and Buffett.
Do you guys read any baseball books or magazines before the season or during?
Reds line went down 30ish cent. Its hard to lay chalk with Arroyo, but the line up differences and bullpen probably makes up for Reds being a play.
I'll probably be on these for small plays.
Seems like oddmakers and market think Buehrle struggles will continue at this ball park. Maybe worth a medium play?
Thanks for the analysis and breakdowns Gordon and Buffett.
Do you guys read any baseball books or magazines before the season or during?
Marlins +113
Phillies +116
Rangers -115
Rays +135
Bluejays pending on price
Reds -133 small to medium level
White Sox medium pending on price
Indians small waiting as it keeps getting bidded up
May change my mind and go medium on Cubs before the tip, still thinking.
I have no idea about the pitchers in the National/Brews game
Line went down too much to think if there was possible value on the Mets again.
Phillies +116
Rangers -115
Rays +135
Bluejays pending on price
Reds -133 small to medium level
White Sox medium pending on price
Indians small waiting as it keeps getting bidded up
May change my mind and go medium on Cubs before the tip, still thinking.
I have no idea about the pitchers in the National/Brews game
Line went down too much to think if there was possible value on the Mets again.
I'd say I read a number of magazines, websites, sports shops and other items to keep me up to date on team rosters and information. What I've had to learn and keep learning is bankroll management.
I'm sure Buffett can fill you in on the aspect of a market being bearish and bullish on certain pitchers and teams. He's well more knowledgeable on that end of sports wagering.
The biggest thing is being able to predict or provide oneself with an edge. This may be with a certain price and predicted wager outcome (63-65%) on particular team and matchup. If you are able to provide more edge than the oddsmakers, you got yourself a money making account. It's harder than it looks and trust me time consuming.
GOOD LUCK TO YOU.
Given the current market price of tommorrows Braves/Marlins price, it appears that the Braves are coming with about the same amount of value that I deemed they had today. It looks like value has nothing to do with the starting pitchers.
Cain continues to get disrespected by oddsmakers with the line they suggested.
Cain continues to get disrespected by oddsmakers with the line they suggested.
There is not much to go by, so I will implement a large margin of saftey in the Orioles game. He has pitched well in AAA this entire season. Good strikeout rate and low walk rate. Throws in the low 90's, plus curveball, and a change up that is a work in progress. Being 21 his arm may have peaked for this year. He somewhat hit a wall around the 100 inning mark last year in double A. He is approaching that number this year, and is coming off his worst start of the season. The thing is is somewhat worrisome is that he is a flyball pitcher that has not allowed a lot of home runs. Not sure if that stat lasts at the big league level.
I have a bearish valuation on him in that game, and am still finding value on the Orioles.
