7/28 movie lines up

[HuskerFan1]

i dont know...i just dont know even at my # im having serious doubts...looking for any bit of decent good news...still waiting on mojo's #'s...and of course the actuals...i went back and looked at collaterals opening 3day weekend...which is what i need to hit this bet...

collateral
friday 7.9mill
sat 9.5mill
sun 7.2 for a 3day weekend of 24.7million

i got this off the board...one guys opinion...i hope he's right...he's calling for MV to be a slight long (and thats based on the closing stock price of 72 and its breakeven price is 25.85million)...that at least gives me another 1.3million in error...we will see...

IM's (interal multipliers)

ANTBU - 5.09. No chance.
Summer CGI has been coming in between 2.9 and 3.1 lately.
SHORT 825-925k

JTMDI - 2.33. Easy.
Female teen targetted flicks have had surprisingly low IMs in June/July the last few years. PRFTM 2.50, CINDR 2.47, SLPOV 2.43. Movies like STPNT/PDIA2 opened on a Wednesday, so they don't offer a good comp.
I'd love to see it come in under 2.5, but for some reason that just doesn't feel likely.
LONG 150k-300k

MVICE - 2.98. Could go either way, leaning very small long though.
Adult male targetted, R-rated movies in the summer tend to come in around 3.0 (i.e 4BROS 3.03, COLAT 3.11). There are very few examples under 2.9, so if MVICE is a short, it shouldn't be too big, unless there are MVICE fanboys out there that will cause this to be anomalously frontloaded. I don't know that to be the case, so I'll stick with 2.9-3.1.
SHORT 100k - LONG 150k.

 

[HuskerFan1]

boxofficeprophets take on fridays #'s mind you was sitting in the same exact spot last week with MH and managed to turn a winner into a loser over the course of the weekend...hence my skepticism (sp?) this weekend...


Friday Box Office Analysis
By Kim Hollis
July 29, 2006


After three weeks at the number one spot, it appears that Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl is about to be deposed as box office champion. It's a closer race than most would have imagined, though.

Miami Vice

Miami Vice had to struggle past the preconceived notions that many people had of the show. Viewers who have fond memories of the series as a goofy, pastel-dominated affair (incorrect though they may be) had trouble getting past the film's darker, humorless edge. What this means in terms of box office is that Miami Vice will fall into the same general opening box office range as director Michael Mann's previous film, Collateral. In 2004, Collateral started the weekend with an $8.2 million Friday. Miami Vice bettered that number just slightly, as it debuted with $8.7 million despite no pre-insanity Tom Cruise. Essentially, the audiences for the two films are the same, so they work well as companions in comparison. Collateral's Friday-to-Sunday multiplier was 2.9, and a similar number would give Miami Vice an acceptable $25 million opening weekend. It remains to be seen whether the film can match the long-term staying power of its predecessor.

John Tucker Must Die

The pleasant surprise of the weekend is John Tucker Must Die, which reached out to a demographic that was obviously aching for something aimed squarely in their direction. The teen flick with a female-driven audience was able to successfully convey its Mean Girls/Heathers atmosphere to a $5.8 million Friday. Junior high and high school girls are an extremely tricky demographic to predict. Mean Girls and She's the Man, as examples, had multipliers of 2.9, but A Cinderella Story, which was released in a similar time frame, managed only a 2.4. We'll split the difference for a 2.6, which would give the young womanizer a very fine weekend total of $15.1 million.

The Ant Bully

Even if The Ant Bully had been well marketed, it was facing a difficult uphill battle in light of the fact that it was sandwiched between two other animated openers in Monster House and The Barnyard. It's becoming clearer and clearer that the publicity staff at Warner Bros. is going to have a lot of explainin' to do after an absolutely miserable summer of failure. Despite a decent voice cast, The Ant Bully had a story that felt less than fresh and an almost total lack of presence in television and theater advertising. Its $3.0 million weekend is a testament to the fact that even CGI animation requires freshness and excitement to succeed. With a smaller opening, its multiplier will probably be decent, but even with that, it will struggle to break $10 million.

 

[joethor]

bom is saying 8.75. need a 3.2 multiplier to jump 27.5. very unlikely. john tucker is already money

 

[HuskerFan1]

same exact scenario as last weekend...hopefully i dont get it rammed up my butt again this week...the sites are predicting (key word predicting)...its gonna go over 24.5m.....reel source is saying 24.8m....im waiting for mojo's #.s.....showbiz had it doing 9m on saturday and a total of 17.686m thru 2days...conversely...collateral (the movie easiest to compare to MV) had 17.4m thry 2days and went on to take in 24.7m for the weekend...if MV #s are accurate it would be almost 300k ahead of collateral thu 2days and would still have 200k room for error on the weekend total....back tomorrow with the good/bad news

deadlinehollywooddaily updated with this

SUNDAY: Nostalgia for Crockett and Tubbs, plus a grittier look and story, made Universal's Miami Vice the No. 1 movie at the box office, knocking off month-long Disney blockbuster, Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Man's Chest. This was Michael Mann's biggest movie opening of his directorial career as Vice took in $8.8 mil Friday and $9.1 mil Saturday for what was a less-than-anticipated $25.2 mil finish. Then again, the pic was playing in only 3,021 theaters, so its per-screen average was a respectable $8,340. (Mann's last big film, Collateral, starring Tom Cruise in his first villain role, opened at $24.7 mil and went on to gross a 4x multiple of its domestic opening weekend -- getting past $100 mil.) I'm told Miami Vice played to a racially and ethnically diverse audience divided almost evenly between male and female -- but a whopping 62% of the moviegoers were aged 30 and older. (Must have been the lure of that familiar theme music...) But the real news was that Warner Bros. continued its "bombs away" summer with the complete collapse of its expensive kiddie fare Ant Bully despite a lavish marketing campaign. Earning only $2.6 mil on Friday and $3.1 mil on Saturday, Ant Bully ended its opening weekend with a pathetic $8 million. So chalk up another loser for that studio, along with M. Night Shyamalan's Lady in the Water, which barely registered its 2nd weekend out with $2.3 mil on Friday and $2.7 mil for Saturday. And, to top it off Superman, dropped out of the top 10 to finish the weekend with less than $4 mil -- so it doesn't look like it will make $200 mil, which is exactly the scenario I've been predicting since it opened. Pirates 2 hauled in another $20.3 mil for second place as it closes in on $400 million at U.S. theaters. The cheap teen pic from Fox, John Tucker Must Die, added $4.5 mil to its Friday's take of $5.5 mil to finish the weekend at $14 mil. Sony's Monster House had a super second weekend out with $11.5 mil (on Friday and $4.5 mil on Saturday). Finally, Uni's comedy You, Me and Dupree playying in 2,820 theaters added another $7 mil for a cume to date of $59 mil. (By the way, on Friday, star Owen Wilson denied any connection between the movie and '70s supergroup Steely Dan. The band recently posted a letter on their website claiming Wilson's Dupree character was based on their Grammy-winning song, "Cousin Dupree," about a couch-hopping houseguest. Whatever...) Finally, the Woody Allen/Scarlett Johanssen/Hugh Jackman comedy-thriller Scoop was #13 at $3 mil on 537 prints for its opening weekend. That's a not-so-hot $5,800 average. Overall, box office was up 5% over last year's.

 

[HuskerFan1]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=miamivice.htm


mojos #s are even better for me...hopefully the actuals are close...crossing my fingers...hitting this would more than make up for last weeks loser...

 

[HuskerFan1]

COME GET SOME!

back on track with a nice one this week...Vice takes in 25.7M

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2006&wknd=30&p=.htm

congrats if ya played it....

 

[joethor]

fine work. lines are up at pinnacle, and the over on that nascar movie is getting hammered

 

[HuskerFan1]

ya seen that...i didnt play anything...and im not going too...these swing too much b/c the limits are so low...last weeks ant bully i went to bed and woke up and it was back to -108 both ways....people can have leans and thats fine but im waiting on screen counts and total theatres before i do anything....

pinny took the stock price and adjusted a little thats all they did...

the latest tracking is out and Talladaga is tracking BELOW 34.5 on both tracking #'s yet they are pounding the over....like they already got the #'s...

not doing what i did last week and putting myself into a polish middle situation...i was lucky to escape that bet...

im gonna sit and be patient and wait...gather my shit this week and wait for thursday night and STRIKE and if i dont get the lines i want...ill make a small bet based on my gut...