7-20

[GordonGekko]

gordon - why kc?

As stated previously, I'm a believer that a lineup will regress when faced with major injuries as stated with Hunter and Vlad as respected 3/4 hitters in the lineup. Tonight they throw a young pitcher at an away ballpark after a 10 inning win. I have the bullpen below average and facing a decent pitcher Ponson away leads me to a medium play. The last three teams the Royals have faced were Boston, Tampa Bay and Detroit.

I don't believe the Angels are as good as any of these teams especially with the lineup they are putting out there.

Ponson has had 6 Starts and combined for a 2.18 ERA for a last place Omaha team. He's curbed his HR ball for the moment with a 4 to 1 SO ration along with only allowing 1.18 WHIP.

Hopefully this helps,

GEKKO

 

[GordonGekko]

Opening lines look very sharp for tommorrow. Was dissapointed to see Beckett open that big of a favorite. When I valued that game, it looked like the Red Sox would be a big play. Looks like books are not falling for Hunters fast start.
Teams that should beat the close on tommorrows card are the Royals and Reds. The market has already dropped the Royals 3% at Pinny. Looks like they are already telling oddsmakers stop overrating the Angels once again.
The Reds are also down 3% off Pinny's open. Oddsmakers simply set the price too high in this one. Line could drop another 10 cents.


Market sending the Red Sox down another 3% today in the last two hours. Expecting some more Red Sox money into the close.

I see nice value in Bailey at that price. Do you feel the Sox will get bet down with Hunters backers at home? I haven't looked at who he faced but last year got roughed up a bit and a patient lineup could do the same against a top tier pitcher pitching in A FORM...

 

[buffettgambler]

Market yet to react to Berkman being in the lineup and the Cards not putting forth one of their better outfield trios. I think the line is right, but would reccommend Astros bettors to get in now, as their price may have bottomed.

 

[buffettgambler]

I see nice value in Bailey at that price. Do you feel the Sox will get bet down with Hunters backers at home? I haven't looked at who he faced but last year got roughed up a bit and a patient lineup could do the same against a top tier pitcher pitching in A FORM...

Good question. I have bet more on the Red Sox than any other team this year, as I deem their trading below their intrinsic worth some point during their trading range almost each day. However, what I am starting to notice is that the market is starting to really like the way Lester and Beckett are pitching, and oddsmakers are starting to adjust. I hope, but probably don't expect the Red Sox to drop much in price tommorrow, even if on the surface -150 is a lot to lay on a road team against a good hitting home team. If it is any indication, Pinny elected to put the same price on Beckett as 20 cents shops.

I agree that this appears to be a bad match up for Hunter. He has proven to be hittable at each level he pitches at, and if you are patient enough, he lacks overpowering stuff to come in on you. The Red Sox may given him problems.