I'm late to the party, but I really like the idea. Just curious though, is there any specific reason you chose the teams you chose? It seems like the system would benefit from only playing the 5 (or 4) best 2q teams in the league. That way you don't have to take any personal feelings about a teams bench into consideration.
Right now that list is:
TEAM - avg 2q home margin
GS - 8.1
MIL - 5.1
MEM - 2.8
HOU - 2.7
DAL - 2.6
As of mid last week, I began doing the same thing this system is doing with only those teams at home. You can follow here if you'd like.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14J9uiTygGhrVpSse5HWOV83PlAy3pbMbZf7Tq21UZr4/edit?usp=sharing
EDIT: As you can see in that link, I'm using painfully low unit sizes. Mostly because I don't have any mathematical proof showing that this is going to be successful.
Right now that list is:
TEAM - avg 2q home margin
GS - 8.1
MIL - 5.1
MEM - 2.8
HOU - 2.7
DAL - 2.6
As of mid last week, I began doing the same thing this system is doing with only those teams at home. You can follow here if you'd like.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14J9uiTygGhrVpSse5HWOV83PlAy3pbMbZf7Tq21UZr4/edit?usp=sharing
EDIT: As you can see in that link, I'm using painfully low unit sizes. Mostly because I don't have any mathematical proof showing that this is going to be successful.
Thanks DudeBro - I think Cutlers Thumb would be the best one to answer your question, as he is the one who set this up - but I think he is using a method similar to yours and playing those teams at home only. At this point, I am just tabulating the results - we should probably update the teams we are using, but I don't really have the time to do that, and sooner or later, CT will come back and update them. Thanks for the input and I will look at your spreadsheet when I can.
Hi guys, you have the right idea. I have done will with this system in the past (best option for any of the quarter angles I've looked at), but it's a chase system, so I think caution is warranted. The general angle is to pick the best benches and play them at home. I didn't keep up with this thread because I was playing small units and it just became too much of a chore.
Here's a site that makes it easy to see who's performing well: http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/average-2nd-quarter-margin
The challenge is really predicting the right teams. The Bulls should have a nice edge with their bench, but it just hasn't happened obviously. Meanwhile Milwaukee has been stellar. Maybe there's an analytics tool out there that can project how strong benches are going into a season. If you look at the teams I picked at the beginning of the season, then look at their performance now, the flaw in this system is clear.
Thanks for stopping by CT. I looked at the link you sent, and it definitely looks like this current group of teams should be changed, but I am not sure of the best way to pick them - like you said, that is the challenge. I made a profit playing this with your teams earlier in the season, and it is still showing positive results, but clearly this needs to change. Anyone care to research this further ? I haven't been playing this recently, but just tabulating the results.
I am going to stop tracking this for now. Good luck everyone.
I am going to stop tracking this for now. Good luck everyone.
