2nd Half MLB TonyTotals picks

[TonyTotals]

Well, aint this fckin special. Lose three 1 run games where I had the lead in two of them late. 0 - 4 so far in 1 run games and 0 - 2 in two run games in 7 picks. That's ok. I'll spot the books. This is a good lesson for next year in MLB. After the All-Star break, must wait a week for teams to settle in. A four day break erases all momentum and disrupts streak probabilities.


0%
0 - 7
-8.85 units
-$442


For Today:


CHC -140
STL -145
KC +135
CIN -110

 

[Betallsports]

FYI Guys ... Posting a 3rd Party Tracking Site is Not allowed here. Which is why I changed the Header of the Thread.

So you will need to figure something else out.
thanks

 

[KingEleven]

maybe it's a good fade system?

 

[TonyTotals]

Remember, timing has a lot to do with what the software strengths are. We are three days in, so the software does not have the timing down yet obviously. It's like saying you are gonna go on dancing with the stars and without any rehearsal know the steps. In a week or two expect the software will settle in and be a much better predictor.

But you have a point, I need to look into the evidence that highlights these games, because it seems to be on the corrections prematurely and not in a win-some lose-some manner, I mean it is highlighting losing teams very, very well. I mean the one game that won today was 0 - 0 into the ninth. So to call that a win is to call Caitlyn Jenner a woman. Very close call.

Tomorrow threres no reason to consider it won't stay this way, it may take 14 - 21 days of stats before things start pointing the right way. Tomorrow is day 4.

 

[TonyTotals]

So, if a computer program that was supposed to hit on games for a correction, but because of a lack of timing yet to be established, the program was actually hitting on teams to continue in the direction they are going there's no reason to lose momey unless of course you hate money. In fact, you can make a lot of money.


If someone could pick winners from Game Matchups, then either game matchups would be illegal like counting cards or there would be no sports betting.


We will have a much better chance of predicting winners looking for outlier and skews in the theoretical true probabilities of outcmes.


The software highlighted 8 favorites over the last three days, 7 of those favorites lost. The avg. price of those favorites was: -135. That translates to a probability of winning to 57.44% of the time. That's like flipping a coin that was weighted to the tails side by a ratio of 57.44%/42.56% and flipping that coin 8 times and coming up heads 7 out of the 8.


I already looked through the software for today and saw a lot of the same evidence on 3 favorites, a -120, a -134, and a -110, the last three days I've seen the same kind of evidence on those other favorites.. Guess what I'm going to do tonight?


I've come across two dogs as well that Ive seen the same thing in the dogs from the weekend where they went 0 - 3. Guess what I am going to do there...


I will use this time to my advantage.


I have a piece of software that is pretty uniue and complex. It's like throwing a first time jockey on his first horse. You don't know exactly what to do or where to go but you learn.

 

[TonyTotals]

Ok. For tonight, I am taking these teams. These are the teams I am betting. Whether or not I am fading some or betting on others was already decided. I do not recommend fading thses plays as you do not know which ones I faded already.


1 - 11
9.09%
-11.7 units
-$585


NYY +100
CIN -128
HOU -130
TB +130
TEX +100

 

[KingEleven]

Ok. For tonight, I am taking these teams. These are the teams I am betting. Whether or not I am fading some or betting on others was already decided. I do not recommend fading thses plays as you do not know which ones I faded already.


1 - 11
9.09%
-11.7 units
-$585


NYY +100
CIN -128
HOU -130
TB +130
TEX +100

but if I am understanding you correctly, you can manipulate the results however you see fit to make the software look better by not telling us what your actual software plays are ..that doesn't make sense. Did I misunderstand?

 

[TonyTotals]

I'm not manipulating anything. The results are the results. I saw tonight in these games, what I have seen in the games this weekend. To bet on what I have seen would be dumb. To fade what I have seen would be smart. I like being smart.

So, the software highlighted BAL, ATL, COL, OAK, LAA tonight in the same fashion it did in the last 12 games from the weekend. I've seen enough to know that the correction prediction is premature yet therefor I am fading the team's above. No manipulation just common sense.

 

[KingEleven]

I guess I just don't understand.

 

[ChugsMcGee]

I'm not manipulating anything. The results are the results. I saw tonight in these games, what I have seen in the games this weekend. To bet on what I have seen would be dumb. To fade what I have seen would be smart. I like being smart.

So, the software highlighted BAL, ATL, COL, OAK, LAA tonight in the same fashion it did in the last 12 games from the weekend. I've seen enough to know that the correction prediction is premature yet therefor I am fading the team's above. No manipulation just common sense.

So you faded them all? Why didn't you say that earlier? By "not telling which I'm playing or which I'm fading" you took any value out o any results you would have had. A system that right 35% is as valuable as system that's right 65% (loosely speaking), assuming everything else is kept constant. Then you went and messed with your constant.

 

[KingEleven]

So you faded them all? Why didn't you say that earlier? By "not telling which I'm playing or which I'm fading" you took any value out o any results you would have had. A system that right 35% is as valuable as system that's right 65% (loosely speaking), assuming everything else is kept constant. Then you went and messed with your constant.

Glad I'm not losing my mind.

 

[ChugsMcGee]

Just seemed unnecessary but maybe I'm misunderstanding as well...if you simply just continue to provide the results as your output states, something valuable may present itself. Good luck.

 

[TonyTotals]

In my post at 4:48 pm yesterday I said I was fading the picks, I'm not trying to confuse anyone. Here are the picks from the software today. Fade or follow at your discretion:

3 - 13
18.75%
-13 units
-$650


Bal +105
Tex +115
Sea +100
Det -150

 

[KingEleven]

In my post at 4:48 pm yesterday I said I was fading the picks, I'm not trying to confuse anyone. Here are the picks from the software today. Fade or follow at your discretion:

3 - 13
18.75%
-13 units
-$650


Bal +105
Tex +115
Sea +100
Det -150

but you said "These are the teams I am betting. Whether or not I am fading some or betting on others was already decided. I do not recommend fading thses plays as you do not know which ones I faded already" and now you are saying something different. Not calling you a liar, but either you are making no sense, or I just do not understand and I think it is the former TT

 

[TonyTotals]

I said in that post that the software keyed on BAL, ATL, COL, OAK, and LAA and that I was fading them. What I meant was that I didn't want anyone guessing on if the plays I post are the original plays or the faded plays. So I was trying to say the plays I list are the plays I am betting.

 

[KingEleven]

I said in that post that the software keyed on BAL, ATL, COL, OAK, and LAA and that I was fading them. What I meant was that I didn't want anyone guessing on if the plays I post are the original plays or the faded plays. So I was trying to say the plays I list are the plays I am betting.

#%() TT, not trying to give you a hard time, but you got my head spinning. It is possible I am the confused one here, because I am very confused....but I'll wait for someone else to chime in and tell me I am confused or you are confusing. Whichever way you are playing, good luck!

 

[TonyTotals]

For anyone using the tracker, you can search through the opinions entered into the tracker using the search link at the bottom of every game on the grid. You can search three different ways, by the overall ability, the MLB ability only, or the specific game situation ability. To move from one search filter to the next you will see a next link at the top right of the search page. The first search page is overall ability, the second is MLB ability and the third one is game situation ability.

 

[TonyTotals]

Last night, I faded the correction alerts. Instead of listing the correction plays and saying I am fading these plays, I just listed the opponents of the teams.

 

[TonyTotals]

Looking to go 4 - 0 very shortly on the fade. That will make the software 3 - 17 in predicting a correction to skewed probability. That means it is 17 - 3 in highlighting teams that will continue to ride the curve in the direction they are going.

The picks I see highlighted by the software from now on will be looked at as teams that will continue not correct momentum. Looking at it like that makes the record 17 - 3. 85%. +15+ units in a few days. It will turn, the team's highlighted will eventually correct not continue. But for now you can't argue with what you see. So instead of fading, we are going to change the way we look at it and have it be a prediction to continue not correct a skew. So the plays I list will be the plays.

 

[cashducats]

king11 is right, it's difficult to follow what you are getting at. you should just tell people to put in their tracker picks and then before game time say what you are playing. going into long explanations and then getting into fading etc is where the hangup is.

in your nba thread your thought process was much easier to understand. gl