2024 Super Bowl odds, pick prediction: by ~Cody Benjamin CBS/NFL

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

~Teddy Covers Sevransky Prop Bets~

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San Francisco at Kansas City 02/11/20246:30 PM ETPICK - PROP
Chiefs u2.5 sacks (-120)

Felix Anudike-Uzomah's insertion into the rotation doesn’t only dull the Kansas City pass rush but it also takes a chunk out of the run stop as well. Charles Omenihu boasted a career-high 17 tackles for loss and made his presence felt with a strip sack on Lamar Jackson in the AFC title game, just before tearing his ACL. The Chiefs are asking a lot of FAU. If he can be half the player Omenihu was, Kansas City is in good shape. If he can’t find a way to cause chaos, the Niners will have a much easier Sunday.

PICK - PROP
Travis Kelce u6.5 Receptions Made (+120)

Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner are athletic linebackers who can match Travis Kelce’s speed. According to PFF, Warner ranks as the seventh-best coverage linebacker in the league and Greenlaw isn’t too far behind him at No. 17 in that category. These LBs also thrive in man-to-man. That’s something we could see more of from defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, with Patrick Mahomes’ metrics showing a significant split in success between zone-to-man defenses.

PICK - PROP
Clyde-Edwards Helaire u6.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire was a late scratch in last year’s Super Bowl and may take a step back again with fellow RB Jerick McKinnon returning from the IR in time for Sunday’s game. McKinnon steps into the third-down role and plays those pass-catching snaps, dropping Edwards-Helaire’s involvement. Current player projections are calling for as many as 14 yards from CEH, but those don’t factor in McKinnon’s return to the roster. Edwards-Helaire averages 15.33 yards per game on the ground but rumbled for 10 or more yards in just six of his 15 regular season outings and had one run for one yard against the Ravens in the AFC title game. I’m getting out ahead of any adjustments and we’re already seeing some books trim his rushing total to 5.5 yards.
PICK - PROP
tBoth teams to score TDs on opening drive - Yes (+1500)

The indoor setting is in the favor of the offenses and each club will be at full health with its playmakers. If I couldn't get this +1,500 prop, I’d be pleased with single betting both offenses to score on their opening drives at +125 or better. However, thanks to elite game-planning coaches and two of the best offenses at scoring on drive No. 1, getting +EV on both teams to score a TD on their opening drives is a long shot that's tough to pass up.

San Francisco at Kansas City02/11/20246:30 PM ETPICK - PROP
Brock Purdy u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-105)

For the most part, Brock Purdy does an excellent job of avoiding turnover-worthy throws, although he does have a habit of forcing passes when the Niners are playing from behind. I don't expect the Niners to trail by a large deficit early in this game, which means I'm betting Purdy won't get picked off — especially by a Chiefs secondary that rarely makes plays on the ball.

San Francisco at Kansas City02/11/20246:30 PM ETPICK - PROP
Patrick Mahomes o0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-115)

Patrick Mahomes doesn't look his best when facing teams that can generate a strong pass rush without blitzing, which allows multiple defenders to drop back into coverage. The 49ers had the eighth-most sacks in the league despite blitzing at the third-lowest frequency and their ability to get pressure with just their front enables their linebackers and defensive backs to clog up passing lanes.

San Francisco at Kansas City02/11/20246:30 PM ETPICK - PROP
Fred Warner o0.5 interceptions made (+1300)

Patrick Mahomes has a fairly even split between picks up the middle and toward the sidelines this season. He has been picked off three times on short throws up the middle while getting intercepted another time on an intermediate pass in the same direction. That gives a ton of betting value on backing 49ers linebacker Fred Warner to come away with an INT at +1,300.


San Francisco at Kansas City02/11/20246:30 PM ETPICK - PROP
Mike Edwards o0.5 interceptions made (+850)
While I don't expect Brock Purdy to get intercepted, there's value in sprinkling a bit of money on Chiefs safety Mike Edwards to come away with the pick if he does. Purdy has thrown just two interceptions to the outside of the field this season while 10 have come up the middle. That makes it more likely that a safety like Edwards will come away with a pick should the QB throw one.

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

~Teddy Covers Sevransky Prop Bets~

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San Francisco at Kansas City02/11/20246:30 PM ETPICK - PROP
Ambry Thomas o3.5 total tackles (-145)

Thomas has logged 4+ tackles in five of his last seven games. However, main reason to hammer the Over on his total tackles prop is because teammate Charvarius Ward has turned into a shutdown corner so K.C. will likely throw away from him and target Thomas on the other side. In addition, Thomas lines up at right corner which means he'll usually face WR Rashee Rice who plays on the left side. Rice has become Mahomes favorite target during the second half of the season which will result in plenty of opportunities for Thomas to make a tackle when Rice catches a pass against him.


San Francisco at Kansas City02/11/20246:30 PM ETPICK - PROP
Nick Bolton u5.5 solo tackles (-130)

With Drue Tranquill playing well over the last few weeks and LB Willie Gay Jr. also healthy after missing the AFC championship game, Bolton will have competition when it comes to getting to the ball carrier first. Keep in mind that Bolton has logged more than five solo tackles just once in 11 total games this season. Even in double-digit tackle performances against Buffalo and Miami during the playoffs he posted exactly five solo stops.


PICK - PROP
George Karlaftis o0.25 sacks (+125)

Karlaftis finished the regular season 12th in the NFL among edge defenders with 48 quarterback hurries while totaling 10.5 sacks. He has racked up nine more hurries and 2.5 sacks during the playoffs and he'll be matched up against 49ers right tackle Colton McKivitz in the Super Bowl. McKivitz has a pass blocking grade of just 56.4 which ranks 67th among offensive tackles who have at least 200 pass blocking snaps this season. With Karlaftis coming away with at least half a sack in 11 of his last 18 games bet the Over 0.25 on his sacks


San Francisco at Kansas City02/11/20246:30 PM ETPICK - PROP
Arik Armstead u0.25 sacks (-210)

The Chiefs allowed the second-fewest sacks (27) in the NFL during the regular season and Mahomes has been sacked just twice in three playoff games. When he does face heat it typically comes from the outside with only 37.7% of the pressure on Mahomes coming from the interior. Armstead lines up at left DT so he'll face RG Trey Smith and center Creed Humphrey. Smith has surrendered just two sacks this season while Humphrey has allowed a pressure on just 2.4% of his pass-blocking snaps. Even if Armstead does push the pocket, Mahomes' pocket presence, quick release, and scrambling ability should help him avoid a sack.

San Francisco at Kansas City02/11/20246:30 PM ETPICK - PROP
KC 1st Drive Outcome 2-way: Score (+135)

Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have scored in eight straight playoff first drives with six of those being for a TD. We saw vs. Baltimore how surgical this offense is with its scripted plays. They've also scored on 56% of their first drives this year while the Niners have allowed a TD or a field-goal attempt in 10 of their 19 first drives this season. Both the Packers and Lions scored on their opening drives vs. SF and the indoor setting is going to make it harder on the defense. I like both offenses to score on the first drive but KC is 10 points longer and the better value in my opinion.


San Francisco at Kansas City02/11/20246:30 PM ETPICK - PROP
at Noah Gray + Jauan Jennings Under 3.5 total receptions (-140)

Jauan Jennings’ numbers may be inflated due to the injury to Deebo Samuel in the game against the Packers. Jennings saw six targets that resulted in five catches for 61 yards. However, Jennings was put back in check in the NFC Championship game when a healthy Deebo returned, as he finished with one catch for eight yards on two targets. Each of Jennings and Noah Gray have their reception total set at 1.5, so you are getting an extra half-catch to the Under. I would lean towards betting the Under for each of their individual catch totals, so the combined wager is a best bet for me.



San Francisco at Kansas City02/11/20246:30 PM ETPICK - PROP
Team to kick longest field goal: KC (-115)

KC's Harrison Butker is one of the best legs in all of football. He made 40 of 42 kicks this year, went a perfect 8-for-8 from 40-49 yards, and hit all six of his attempts from 50-plus yards. He's made more kicks than anyone in the league and crushed a 52-yarder in Baltimore. Rookie kicker Jake Moody will be playing in his first Super Bowl and has hit just seven of 13 kicks from 40-plus yards and has just one attempt of 50-plus yards since Week 8. Butker gets asked to kick from long range more often and is wildly more accurate than Moody’s 80% success rate which ranks outside the Top 25 in the league. Finally, Butker knows this track very well having played here each year over the last four seasons and has 18 games of playoff experience with an 87.5 success rate.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Do you have a pick Harry? All I see so far are tout/writers picks. GL

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Do you have a pick Harry? All I see so far are tout/writers picks. GL

~Teddy Covers Sevransky Prop Bets~

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San Francisco at Kansas City02/11/20246:30 PM ETPICK - PROP
Ambry Thomas o3.5 total tackles (-145)

Thomas has logged 4+ tackles in five of his last seven games. However, main reason to hammer the Over on his total tackles prop is because teammate Charvarius Ward has turned into a shutdown corner so K.C. will likely throw away from him and target Thomas on the other side. In addition, Thomas lines up at right corner which means he'll usually face WR Rashee Rice who plays on the left side. Rice has become Mahomes favorite target during the second half of the season which will result in plenty of opportunities for Thomas to make a tackle when Rice catches a pass against him.


San Francisco at Kansas City02/11/20246:30 PM ETPICK - PROP
Nick Bolton u5.5 solo tackles (-130)

With Drue Tranquill playing well over the last few weeks and LB Willie Gay Jr. also healthy after missing the AFC championship game, Bolton will have competition when it comes to getting to the ball carrier first. Keep in mind that Bolton has logged more than five solo tackles just once in 11 total games this season. Even in double-digit tackle performances against Buffalo and Miami during the playoffs he posted exactly five solo stops.


PICK - PROP
George Karlaftis o0.25 sacks (+125)

Karlaftis finished the regular season 12th in the NFL among edge defenders with 48 quarterback hurries while totaling 10.5 sacks. He has racked up nine more hurries and 2.5 sacks during the playoffs and he'll be matched up against 49ers right tackle Colton McKivitz in the Super Bowl. McKivitz has a pass blocking grade of just 56.4 which ranks 67th among offensive tackles who have at least 200 pass blocking snaps this season. With Karlaftis coming away with at least half a sack in 11 of his last 18 games bet the Over 0.25 on his sacks


San Francisco at Kansas City02/11/20246:30 PM ETPICK - PROP
Arik Armstead u0.25 sacks (-210)

The Chiefs allowed the second-fewest sacks (27) in the NFL during the regular season and Mahomes has been sacked just twice in three playoff games. When he does face heat it typically comes from the outside with only 37.7% of the pressure on Mahomes coming from the interior. Armstead lines up at left DT so he'll face RG Trey Smith and center Creed Humphrey. Smith has surrendered just two sacks this season while Humphrey has allowed a pressure on just 2.4% of his pass-blocking snaps. Even if Armstead does push the pocket, Mahomes' pocket presence, quick release, and scrambling ability should help him avoid a sack.

San Francisco at Kansas City02/11/20246:30 PM ETPICK - PROP
KC 1st Drive Outcome 2-way: Score (+135)

Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have scored in eight straight playoff first drives with six of those being for a TD. We saw vs. Baltimore how surgical this offense is with its scripted plays. They've also scored on 56% of their first drives this year while the Niners have allowed a TD or a field-goal attempt in 10 of their 19 first drives this season. Both the Packers and Lions scored on their opening drives vs. SF and the indoor setting is going to make it harder on the defense. I like both offenses to score on the first drive but KC is 10 points longer and the better value in my opinion.


San Francisco at Kansas City02/11/20246:30 PM ETPICK - PROP
at Noah Gray + Jauan Jennings Under 3.5 total receptions (-140)

Jauan Jennings’ numbers may be inflated due to the injury to Deebo Samuel in the game against the Packers. Jennings saw six targets that resulted in five catches for 61 yards. However, Jennings was put back in check in the NFC Championship game when a healthy Deebo returned, as he finished with one catch for eight yards on two targets. Each of Jennings and Noah Gray have their reception total set at 1.5, so you are getting an extra half-catch to the Under. I would lean towards betting the Under for each of their individual catch totals, so the combined wager is a best bet for me.



San Francisco at Kansas City02/11/20246:30 PM ETPICK - PROP
Team to kick longest field goal: KC (-115)

KC's Harrison Butker is one of the best legs in all of football. He made 40 of 42 kicks this year, went a perfect 8-for-8 from 40-49 yards, and hit all six of his attempts from 50-plus yards. He's made more kicks than anyone in the league and crushed a 52-yarder in Baltimore. Rookie kicker Jake Moody will be playing in his first Super Bowl and has hit just seven of 13 kicks from 40-plus yards and has just one attempt of 50-plus yards since Week 8. Butker gets asked to kick from long range more often and is wildly more accurate than Moody’s 80% success rate which ranks outside the Top 25 in the league. Finally, Butker knows this track very well having played here each year over the last four seasons and has 18 games of playoff experience with an 87.5 success rate.

Purdy is a great story and a good quarterback, but if you look closely, you’ll see that he has dominated the league’s worst pass defenses and avoided most of the best ones. Purdy’s performance in the 49ers’ NFC championship comeback does not make him the next Joe Montana; it makes him a quarterback who faced the 2023 Detroit Lions. The Chiefs defense presents the kind of test that Purdy hasn’t faced since the 49ers saw the Ravens in December, and that game went as poorly as possible for Purdy. My prediction, after poring through all the available data: The 49ers will win the toss, elect to defer, and immediately give up a touchdown to Mahomes. Kyle Shanahan will try to lean on the run early to let his young quarterback settle in, but as Reid will explain after the game: “I’ve seared a few steaks in my day. What was your question?” In other words: He’ll be ready for it. San Francisco will punt, Kansas City will score again, and by the end of the night, Shanahan will call a timeout just to imagine how well Kirk Cousins would have played. Mahomes will be the best player on the field, but Kelce will receive 98% of the fan vote and win MVP.

Matt Verderame​

Kansas City Chiefs 30, San Francisco 49ers 17​

MVP: Patrick Mahomes
The 49ers were the better team throughout the season, but the Chiefs are the best team right now. Kansas City has seemingly found its offense with Mahomers heavily relying on Kelce , Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has also emerged from a season-long slog to make three key catches over the past two weeks in wins over the Ravens and Bills.
Meanwhile, Kansas City has one of the NFL’s best defenses, finishing second this season in both sacks and pressure rate. It also has a pair of All-Pro level corners in L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie, two guys who can play zone and man, blitz and tackle. The duo combined for 120 solo tackles, with 60 apiece. Combine the talent with coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's scheme and it adds up to a long day for Purdy and the San Francisco offense, which has gotten off to slow starts in each of its playoff games.

Greg Bishop​

Kansas City Chiefs 31, San Francisco 49ers 28​

MVP: Patrick Mahomes
I went back and forth on this 100 times. Going into this postseason, the title felt more up for grabs than usual. There was one dominant team in each conference—San Francisco and Baltimore, respectively—and there were a bunch of teams that had gone on torrid stretches at various points throughout 2023. What I struggled with was how every team, including the dominant ones, had gone through/experienced/confronted rough stretches this season. Games where they didn’t play well. Games where injuries took too much away. They all seemed fallible, each and every team. I figured whichever one got hot at the end would win. To that end, I think the Chiefs are that team. Part of me wonders if the 49ers didn’t line up an ideal postseason, with a tough game, huge comeback and tons of resilience fueling a performance that will be closer to what San Francisco looked like earlier this season. But the Chiefs are the hotter team, and they have won three games this postseason with cold, clinical precision. They also have Patrick Mahomes. You can forget about the MVP voting, his statistics or anything beyond the obvious: He’s the single best and most valuable football player on the planet. So, while I could see this one going either way, I also see no reason to bet against Kansas City. Or Mahomes. Or recent history. Thus, the Chiefs are the pick here.

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Kansas City Chiefs 28, San Francisco 49ers 24​

MVP: Patrick Mahomes
I’ve always been a big admirer of athletes who can their teams to victory. Michael Jordan and Tom Brady were masters at elevating the players around them to get the most out of them. And Mahomes is no different. Despite the Chiefs’ offense struggling throughout the season, Mahomes has found a way to get his team to the Super Bowl with wins on the road over the Bills and Ravens. To me, that puts him on par with Brady, who got the Patriots to the Big Game more than once by going on the road. Mahomes has also played with a less-than-stellar receiving group, along with a Hall of Fame tight end who didn’t play at a Hall of Fame level until the playoffs. Still, I expect Mahomes to find a way against the 49ers defense, which has been mediocre at best in playoff wins over the Packers and Lions. If the game comes down to one of the quarterbacks having to make a play or execute a game-winning drive to win the Super Bowl, my money is on Mahomes, not Purdy. And my money is on Reid to put his quarterback in position to execute that play or drive. A win Sunday should solidify a Chiefs dynasty with three Super Bowl wins over a five-year period.

Claire Kuwana​

Kansas City Chiefs 24, San Francisco 49ers 21​

MVP: Patrick Mahomes
I really wish I could go with the 49ers here. (I’ve been wrong on nearly every postseason pick thus far, though, so in a backward way, you’re welcome, San Francisco fans.) The big difference between these two teams is this: The Chiefs almost always excel under pressure, while the Niners are no strangers to crumbling in big moments. Kansas City, put simply, has the advantage Sunday in that it doesn’t carry the same burden to win that San Francisco does. And I’m always hesitant to bet against Mahomes, who is nearly unstoppable when it comes to winning titles. Had Kelce been playing the way he had all regular season, maybe my pick would have been different, but ultimately, the two of them, when at their best, are an duo that can rival even the most loaded of rosters. Lastly, the way Spagnuolo’s defensive unit was able to limit the Ravens two weeks ago is proof enough that Purdy, despite his best efforts to show off, scramble and come back, will falter against his biggest test yet. We have to remember, beyond the Mahomes shadow, Kansas City’s defense is the reason the team is in this position at all—it’s only right it’ll be a driving force behind this championship, too. And, because someone has to mention it, this will be.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Purdy is a great story and a good quarterback, but if you look closely, you’ll see that he has dominated the league’s worst pass defenses and avoided most of the best ones. Purdy’s performance in the 49ers’ NFC championship comeback does not make him the next Joe Montana; it makes him a quarterback who faced the 2023 Detroit Lions. The Chiefs defense presents the kind of test that Purdy hasn’t faced since the 49ers saw the Ravens in December, and that game went as poorly as possible for Purdy. My prediction, after poring through all the available data: The 49ers will win the toss, elect to defer, and immediately give up a touchdown to Mahomes. Kyle Shanahan will try to lean on the run early to let his young quarterback settle in, but as Reid will explain after the game: “I’ve seared a few steaks in my day. What was your question?” In other words: He’ll be ready for it. San Francisco will punt, Kansas City will score again, and by the end of the night, Shanahan will call a timeout just to imagine how well Kirk Cousins would have played. Mahomes will be the best player on the field, but Kelce will receive 98% of the fan vote and win MVP.

Matt Verderame​

Kansas City Chiefs 30, San Francisco 49ers 17​

MVP: Patrick Mahomes
The 49ers were the better team throughout the season, but the Chiefs are the best team right now. Kansas City has seemingly found its offense with Mahomers heavily relying on Kelce , Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has also emerged from a season-long slog to make three key catches over the past two weeks in wins over the Ravens and Bills.
Meanwhile, Kansas City has one of the NFL’s best defenses, finishing second this season in both sacks and pressure rate. It also has a pair of All-Pro level corners in L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie, two guys who can play zone and man, blitz and tackle. The duo combined for 120 solo tackles, with 60 apiece. Combine the talent with coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's scheme and it adds up to a long day for Purdy and the San Francisco offense, which has gotten off to slow starts in each of its playoff games.

Greg Bishop​

Kansas City Chiefs 31, San Francisco 49ers 28​

MVP: Patrick Mahomes
I went back and forth on this 100 times. Going into this postseason, the title felt more up for grabs than usual. There was one dominant team in each conference—San Francisco and Baltimore, respectively—and there were a bunch of teams that had gone on torrid stretches at various points throughout 2023. What I struggled with was how every team, including the dominant ones, had gone through/experienced/confronted rough stretches this season. Games where they didn’t play well. Games where injuries took too much away. They all seemed fallible, each and every team. I figured whichever one got hot at the end would win. To that end, I think the Chiefs are that team. Part of me wonders if the 49ers didn’t line up an ideal postseason, with a tough game, huge comeback and tons of resilience fueling a performance that will be closer to what San Francisco looked like earlier this season. But the Chiefs are the hotter team, and they have won three games this postseason with cold, clinical precision. They also have Patrick Mahomes. You can forget about the MVP voting, his statistics or anything beyond the obvious: He’s the single best and most valuable football player on the planet. So, while I could see this one going either way, I also see no reason to bet against Kansas City. Or Mahomes. Or recent history. Thus, the Chiefs are the pick here.

​

Kansas City Chiefs 28, San Francisco 49ers 24​

MVP: Patrick Mahomes
I’ve always been a big admirer of athletes who can their teams to victory. Michael Jordan and Tom Brady were masters at elevating the players around them to get the most out of them. And Mahomes is no different. Despite the Chiefs’ offense struggling throughout the season, Mahomes has found a way to get his team to the Super Bowl with wins on the road over the Bills and Ravens. To me, that puts him on par with Brady, who got the Patriots to the Big Game more than once by going on the road. Mahomes has also played with a less-than-stellar receiving group, along with a Hall of Fame tight end who didn’t play at a Hall of Fame level until the playoffs. Still, I expect Mahomes to find a way against the 49ers defense, which has been mediocre at best in playoff wins over the Packers and Lions. If the game comes down to one of the quarterbacks having to make a play or execute a game-winning drive to win the Super Bowl, my money is on Mahomes, not Purdy. And my money is on Reid to put his quarterback in position to execute that play or drive. A win Sunday should solidify a Chiefs dynasty with three Super Bowl wins over a five-year period.

Claire Kuwana​

Kansas City Chiefs 24, San Francisco 49ers 21​

MVP: Patrick Mahomes
I really wish I could go with the 49ers here. (I’ve been wrong on nearly every postseason pick thus far, though, so in a backward way, you’re welcome, San Francisco fans.) The big difference between these two teams is this: The Chiefs almost always excel under pressure, while the Niners are no strangers to crumbling in big moments. Kansas City, put simply, has the advantage Sunday in that it doesn’t carry the same burden to win that San Francisco does. And I’m always hesitant to bet against Mahomes, who is nearly unstoppable when it comes to winning titles. Had Kelce been playing the way he had all regular season, maybe my pick would have been different, but ultimately, the two of them, when at their best, are an duo that can rival even the most loaded of rosters. Lastly, the way Spagnuolo’s defensive unit was able to limit the Ravens two weeks ago is proof enough that Purdy, despite his best efforts to show off, scramble and come back, will falter against his biggest test yet. We have to remember, beyond the Mahomes shadow, Kansas City’s defense is the reason the team is in this position at all—it’s only right it’ll be a driving force behind this championship, too. And, because someone has to mention it, this will be.

So it appears you ON a bunch of props. Ty

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Purdy is a great story and a good quarterback, but if you look closely, you’ll see that he has dominated the league’s worst pass defenses and avoided most of the best ones. Purdy’s performance in the 49ers’ NFC championship comeback does not make him the next Joe Montana; it makes him a quarterback who faced the 2023 Detroit Lions. The Chiefs defense presents the kind of test that Purdy hasn’t faced since the 49ers saw the Ravens in December, and that game went as poorly as possible for Purdy. My prediction, after poring through all the available data: The 49ers will win the toss, elect to defer, and immediately give up a touchdown to Mahomes. Kyle Shanahan will try to lean on the run early to let his young quarterback settle in, but as Reid will explain after the game: “I’ve seared a few steaks in my day. What was your question?” In other words: He’ll be ready for it. San Francisco will punt, Kansas City will score again, and by the end of the night, Shanahan will call a timeout just to imagine how well Kirk Cousins would have played. Mahomes will be the best player on the field, but Kelce will receive 98% of the fan vote and win MVP.

Matt Verderame​

Kansas City Chiefs 30, San Francisco 49ers 17​

MVP: Patrick Mahomes
The 49ers were the better team throughout the season, but the Chiefs are the best team right now. Kansas City has seemingly found its offense with Mahomers heavily relying on Kelce , Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has also emerged from a season-long slog to make three key catches over the past two weeks in wins over the Ravens and Bills.
Meanwhile, Kansas City has one of the NFL’s best defenses, finishing second this season in both sacks and pressure rate. It also has a pair of All-Pro level corners in L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie, two guys who can play zone and man, blitz and tackle. The duo combined for 120 solo tackles, with 60 apiece. Combine the talent with coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's scheme and it adds up to a long day for Purdy and the San Francisco offense, which has gotten off to slow starts in each of its playoff games.

Greg Bishop​

Kansas City Chiefs 31, San Francisco 49ers 28​

MVP: Patrick Mahomes
I went back and forth on this 100 times. Going into this postseason, the title felt more up for grabs than usual. There was one dominant team in each conference—San Francisco and Baltimore, respectively—and there were a bunch of teams that had gone on torrid stretches at various points throughout 2023. What I struggled with was how every team, including the dominant ones, had gone through/experienced/confronted rough stretches this season. Games where they didn’t play well. Games where injuries took too much away. They all seemed fallible, each and every team. I figured whichever one got hot at the end would win. To that end, I think the Chiefs are that team. Part of me wonders if the 49ers didn’t line up an ideal postseason, with a tough game, huge comeback and tons of resilience fueling a performance that will be closer to what San Francisco looked like earlier this season. But the Chiefs are the hotter team, and they have won three games this postseason with cold, clinical precision. They also have Patrick Mahomes. You can forget about the MVP voting, his statistics or anything beyond the obvious: He’s the single best and most valuable football player on the planet. So, while I could see this one going either way, I also see no reason to bet against Kansas City. Or Mahomes. Or recent history. Thus, the Chiefs are the pick here.

​

Kansas City Chiefs 28, San Francisco 49ers 24​

MVP: Patrick Mahomes
I’ve always been a big admirer of athletes who can their teams to victory. Michael Jordan and Tom Brady were masters at elevating the players around them to get the most out of them. And Mahomes is no different. Despite the Chiefs’ offense struggling throughout the season, Mahomes has found a way to get his team to the Super Bowl with wins on the road over the Bills and Ravens. To me, that puts him on par with Brady, who got the Patriots to the Big Game more than once by going on the road. Mahomes has also played with a less-than-stellar receiving group, along with a Hall of Fame tight end who didn’t play at a Hall of Fame level until the playoffs. Still, I expect Mahomes to find a way against the 49ers defense, which has been mediocre at best in playoff wins over the Packers and Lions. If the game comes down to one of the quarterbacks having to make a play or execute a game-winning drive to win the Super Bowl, my money is on Mahomes, not Purdy. And my money is on Reid to put his quarterback in position to execute that play or drive. A win Sunday should solidify a Chiefs dynasty with three Super Bowl wins over a five-year period.

Claire Kuwana​

Kansas City Chiefs 24, San Francisco 49ers 21​

MVP: Patrick Mahomes
I really wish I could go with the 49ers here. (I’ve been wrong on nearly every postseason pick thus far, though, so in a backward way, you’re welcome, San Francisco fans.) The big difference between these two teams is this: The Chiefs almost always excel under pressure, while the Niners are no strangers to crumbling in big moments. Kansas City, put simply, has the advantage Sunday in that it doesn’t carry the same burden to win that San Francisco does. And I’m always hesitant to bet against Mahomes, who is nearly unstoppable when it comes to winning titles. Had Kelce been playing the way he had all regular season, maybe my pick would have been different, but ultimately, the two of them, when at their best, are an duo that can rival even the most loaded of rosters. Lastly, the way Spagnuolo’s defensive unit was able to limit the Ravens two weeks ago is proof enough that Purdy, despite his best efforts to show off, scramble and come back, will falter against his biggest test yet. We have to remember, beyond the Mahomes shadow, Kansas City’s defense is the reason the team is in this position at all—it’s only right it’ll be a driving force behind this championship, too. And, because someone has to mention it, this will be.

From X [twitter]

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Harold Johnson NFL Analyst, Handicapper with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders ~[Cleveland OH

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Despite the recent Super Bowl total points trends, I like the look of the under bet this year. In all honesty, market is going about 3-1 on the over, but I have my own reasons about the under. Only one of Kansas City’s previous nine games has produced over 47.5 points. Last month, the Chiefs shared 51 points with the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round, combining for over 47.5 points for the first time since November. It is also worth pointing out that Kansas City has seen over 47.5 points in just four of their 20 games this season (20%), meaning 80% of their clashes have produced fewer than 48 points. As for the 49ers, eight of their 19 games have served up over 47.5 points (42%). Although this number is higher than Kansas City’s, San Francisco has seen under 47.5 points in less than 50% of their clashes this season.
Ultimately, San Francisco and Kansas City have played a combined total of 39 games this season, 12 of which have dished up over 47.5 points (31%). With that in mind, I recommend backing under 47.5 Super Bowl total points this year. A smart move 7-point 2 team teaser under 54.5 & KC +9

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

I want to thank all my personal friends, that have been following me over the years with your support on Rx ... Best of luck to you all on your picks and bets on the Super Bowl. I hope to be here again next season on Rx with all my personal friends again.

 

[exploited17]

Lets hope Kermit the Mahomes has 3 titles when it is over.
GL

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Thank You GoldenBullet Let's all win!!!!!​

 

[PiefaceJCS]

As always Harry, appreciate you sharing and good luck today.

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

As always Harry, appreciate you sharing and good luck today.

Thank you!!! it was another good season for me!!!! Let's all win !!!!

 

[JohnnyMags]

Good Luck Harry

 

[XXII]

Harold Johnson NFL Analyst, Handicapper with DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders ~[Cleveland OH

---

Despite the recent Super Bowl total points trends, I like the look of the under bet this year. In all honesty, market is going about 3-1 on the over, but I have my own reasons about the under. Only one of Kansas City’s previous nine games has produced over 47.5 points. Last month, the Chiefs shared 51 points with the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round, combining for over 47.5 points for the first time since November. It is also worth pointing out that Kansas City has seen over 47.5 points in just four of their 20 games this season (20%), meaning 80% of their clashes have produced fewer than 48 points. As for the 49ers, eight of their 19 games have served up over 47.5 points (42%). Although this number is higher than Kansas City’s, San Francisco has seen under 47.5 points in less than 50% of their clashes this season.
Ultimately, San Francisco and Kansas City have played a combined total of 39 games this season, 12 of which have dished up over 47.5 points (31%). With that in mind, I recommend backing under 47.5 Super Bowl total points this year. A smart move 7-point 2 team teaser under 54.5 & KC +9

GREAT WORK ALWAYS!!! Money management to the T! Love it! Congratulations

 

[lakrfan2000]

Mr. HTH, congratulations on another outstanding NFL season. I don't have all the numbers, but, you clearly have one of the best win ratios on this entire board.
You know you're successful, when the insecure jealous trolls have to try and discredit your success. LOL
Enjoy the offseason and I'm looking forward to catching up. I appreciate and respect you, my long time friend.

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Mr. HTH, congratulations on another outstanding NFL season. I don't have all the numbers, but, you clearly have one of the best win ratios on this entire board.
You know you're successful, when the insecure jealous trolls have to try and discredit your success. LOL
Enjoy the offseason and I'm looking forward to catching up. I appreciate and respect you, my long time friend.

Thank You Very Good Friend lakrfan2000!!!! Yes, it was another good season. God Willing. hope to see you and my other good friends on Rx next season buddy... stay well and safe, my really good friend!!!!!

 

[LuckysBoy]

Always enjoy your info. Nice season and have a great offseason.

 

[DrJimmy]

Mr. HTH, congratulations on another outstanding NFL season. I don't have all the numbers, but, you clearly have one of the best win ratios on this entire board.
You know you're successful, when the insecure jealous trolls have to try and discredit your success. LOL
Enjoy the offseason and I'm looking forward to catching up. I appreciate and respect you, my long time friend.

Best capper on the site! Nails it every time!

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Best capper on the site! Nails it every time!

My betting system is heavily dependent on statistics, requiring some data gathering and assumption building regarding future performance. My analysis with information using three Power ratings with a comparison factoring in home team edges. Trying to analyze a clear idea what teams are inflated with the point spread. Looking at stats from many different media sources with the point spreads compared to all three power ratings. Danny Sheridan power rating, Dunkel Index power rating, & *****The DVAXN Group 25 NFL Football Outsiders Rating is a must read. I use, It's based on their model that factors in defense and offense statistics including points scored, points given up, win-loss record, and strength of games played and remaining. It indicates who is actually the better teams irrespective of record. My picks are free on Rx Form and always be just that... and way I see it when I win you win. I have a great following and some great acquaintances on this form over a number of years that follow my posts with picks and also bets. What you bet is your personal business and what bet is mine. It's not how much you bet, it's all about winning. Ladies & Gentlemen of jury [ Rx members] My record this season is 4X my bankroll last season 5X bankroll speaks for itself!!!!!! Average of 2-3K people look at my posts, so I must be doing something right as rain//LOL !!!!I Thank you to all my personal friends on Rx with their support, hope to be back next season. Let's just win!!!!!!!!!!!