2023 Wild Card Round

[Serbone]

If you'll notice I didn't take either side in any of the three games posted. When I'm on a side I will make it known. Also, I plan on doing some live wagering which I will post here.

I, of course, noticed you did not pick a side.

You did not answer my request:

so tell me what this has to do with the outcome ATS for the 2024 teams in the playoff game Saturday night





Your data:
Miami has not won in the wild card round since beating the Colts at home in OT back in 2000.

The Chiefs are 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS at home in the wild card round all-time, winning and covering their last game in 2021 against the Steelers.

 

[itchyback]

If you'll notice I didn't take either side in any of the three games posted. When I'm on a side I will make it known. Also, I plan on doing some live wagering which I will post here.

Chiefs under 2nd half has been pretty good

 

[BigLouReturns]

I, of course, noticed you did not pick a side.

You did not answer my request:

so tell me what this has to do with the outcome ATS for the 2024 teams in the playoff game Saturday night





Your data:
Miami has not won in the wild card round since beating the Colts at home in OT back in 2000.

The Chiefs are 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS at home in the wild card round all-time, winning and covering their last game in 2021 against the Steelers.

I approach the playoffs from a historical standpoint and everything I need is in those two sentences. Well almost. I needed the line to go over 4 and it has.

 

[BigLouReturns]

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Dolphins are currently 3.5 point road dogs against Kansas City. The weather reports show an extremely cold night on tap, with temps to be near zero or below. Below are the five coldest games in the playoffs s/67.
​

Year	HC P/O REC	QB P/O REC	TD%	INT%	Rd	@	Hm	Line	Score	S3Q	T/O	QB P/O REC	HC P/O REC	TD%	INT%
1967	T. Landry: 1-1	D. Meredith: 1-1	6.3	6.3	Dal	@	GB	-7	21-17W	14-10	2-2	B. Starr: 7-1	V. Lombardi: 7-1	4.3	8.1
1980	T. Flores: 1-0	J. Plunkett: 1-0	5.6	5.0	Oak	@	Cle	-3.5	12-14L	12-7	4-3	B. Sipe: 0-0	S. Rutigliano: 0-0	5.4	2.5
1981	D. Coryell: 2-4	D. Fouts: 2-2	5.4	2.8	SD	@	Cin	-4.5	27-7W	20-7	1-4	K. Anderson: 1-2	F. Gregg: 1-0	6.1	2.1
1995	Marchibroda: 1-3	J. Harbaugh: 1-1	5.4	1.6	Ind	@	KC	-11	7-10L	7-10	4-1	S. Bono: 0-0	Marty S: 5-9	4.0	1.9
2007	T. Coughlin: 6-6	E. Manning: 2-2	4.3	3.8	NYG	@	GB	-8	20-23L	17-20	2-1	B. Favre: 12-9	McCarthy: 1-0	5.2	2.8
2023	M. McDaniel: 0-1	Tagovailoa: 0-0	5.3	2.7	Mia	@	KC	-3.5				Mahomes: 11-3	A. Reid: 22-16	4.4	2.7

Taking the Dolphins +4.5 for 2 units.

 

[BigLouReturns]

While that stat is obviously significant, he is but one player on a team. Make sure you look at both teams, top to bottom, including special teams.

Everybody seems to be keyed in on Tua playing in the cold but the team that makes the fewest mistake on special teams wins this game.

 

[BigLouReturns]

Another thing I commented on last year and am seeing once again this season is betting on all the games. The wild card round has been severely watered down through the years. When it was first introduced in 1978 there was a total of four teams playing in that round. Now there is twelve. That many teams means too many variables so I make one, maybe two picks at the most in this round. More people should take this approach but they won't.

 

[BigLouReturns]

Rams @ Lions

Rams HC Sean McVay owns a 7-3 post-season record. Dan Campbell is coaching his first post-season game. Two years ago the Rams won the Super Bowl. Two years ago the Lions were 3-13-1. Matthew Stafford going against his old team and Jared Goff going against his old team. This is a game to sit back, watch and enjoy!​

 

[BigLouReturns]

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Dolphins are currently 3.5 point road dogs against Kansas City. The weather reports show an extremely cold night on tap, with temps to be near zero or below. Below are the five coldest games in the playoffs s/67.
​

Year	HC P/O REC	QB P/O REC	TD%	INT%	Rd	@	Hm	Line	Score	S3Q	T/O	QB P/O REC	HC P/O REC	TD%	INT%
1967	T. Landry: 1-1	D. Meredith: 1-1	6.3	6.3	Dal	@	GB	-7	21-17W	14-10	2-2	B. Starr: 7-1	V. Lombardi: 7-1	4.3	8.1
1980	T. Flores: 1-0	J. Plunkett: 1-0	5.6	5.0	Oak	@	Cle	-3.5	12-14L	12-7	4-3	B. Sipe: 0-0	S. Rutigliano: 0-0	5.4	2.5
1981	D. Coryell: 2-4	D. Fouts: 2-2	5.4	2.8	SD	@	Cin	-4.5	27-7W	20-7	1-4	K. Anderson: 1-2	F. Gregg: 1-0	6.1	2.1
1995	Marchibroda: 1-3	J. Harbaugh: 1-1	5.4	1.6	Ind	@	KC	-11	7-10L	7-10	4-1	S. Bono: 0-0	Marty S: 5-9	4.0	1.9
2007	T. Coughlin: 6-6	E. Manning: 2-2	4.3	3.8	NYG	@	GB	-8	20-23L	17-20	2-1	B. Favre: 12-9	McCarthy: 1-0	5.2	2.8
2023	M. McDaniel: 0-1	Tagovailoa: 0-0	5.3	2.7	Mia	@	KC	-3.5				Mahomes: 11-3	A. Reid: 22-16	4.4	2.7

Says G-MAN - "The Miami Dolphins were outscored in the second half in 5 of 6 games against winning teams this season by a scoring margin of 86-42."

What are the post-season results of teams that were outscored like you mentioned above? You have actual results or you're just assuming that the teams that did better in the regular season win their first playoff game and the 4 bottom that you have listed lose their first post-season game? Feel free to answer that here. I won't contact any mods.

 

[Serbone]

I approach the playoffs from a historical standpoint and everything I need is in those two sentences. Well almost. I needed the line to go over 4 and it has.

SO, from these two lines, alone, you picked Miami:



Miami has not won in the wild card round since beating the Colts at home in OT back in 2000.

The Chiefs are 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS at home in the wild card round all-time, winning and covering their last game in 2021 against the Steelers.

 

[BigLouReturns]

SO, from these two lines, alone, you picked Miami:



Miami has not won in the wild card round since beating the Colts at home in OT back in 2000.

The Chiefs are 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS at home in the wild card round all-time, winning and covering their last game in 2021 against the Steelers.

I forgot to mention the Dolphins will be "fired up" for this game.

 

[Loves2kickass]

I forgot to mention the Dolphins will be "fired up" for this game.

 

[BigLouReturns]

Says G-MAN - "The Miami Dolphins were outscored in the second half in 5 of 6 games against winning teams this season by a scoring margin of 86-42."

What are the post-season results of teams that were outscored like you mentioned above? You have actual results or you're just assuming that the teams that did better in the regular season win their first playoff game and the 4 bottom that you have listed lose their first post-season game? Feel free to answer that here. I won't contact any mods.

Looks like the final answer is 'just assuming' since he hasn't posted anything to back that stat up.

 

[BigLouReturns]

One more point I want to make in regards to the Chiefs having all the advantages in this game. When the weather is this cold, both kickers face the same problem and that is kicking a football that feels like a rock. Why does everybody assume the home team's kicker holds the advantage? Below are the five coldest playoff games along with the number of missed FG's by each team.

Year

HC P/O REC

QB P/O REC

MIS

FG'S

Rd

@

Hm

Line

Score

S3Q

T/O

QB P/O REC

HC P/O REC

MIS

FG'S

1967

T. Landry: 1-1

D. Meredith: 1-1

1

Dal

@

GB

-7

21-17W

14-10

2-2

B. Starr: 7-1

V. Lombardi: 7-1

1

1980

T. Flores: 1-0

J. Plunkett: 1-0

0

Oak

@

Cle

-3.5

12-14L

12-7

4-3

B. Sipe: 0-0

S. Rutigliano: 0-0

2

1981

D. Coryell: 2-4

D. Fouts: 2-2

2

SD

@

Cin

-4.5

27-7W

20-7

1-4

K. Anderson: 1-2

F. Gregg: 1-0

0

1995

Marchibroda: 1-3

J. Harbaugh: 1-1

2

Ind

@

KC

-11

7-10L

7-10

4-1

S. Bono: 0-0

Marty S: 5-9

3

2007

T. Coughlin: 6-6

E. Manning: 2-2

2

NYG

@

GB

-8

20-23L

17-20

2-1

B. Favre: 12-9

McCarthy: 1-0

0

2023

M. McDaniel: 0-1

Tagovailoa: 0-0

Mia

@

KC

-4.5

Mahomes: 11-3

A. Reid: 22-16

 

[BigLouReturns]

G-man says - "the facts are only what counts."

I totally agree. The facts ARE what matters, not people's opinions, and that's why I asked you post some facts backing up your statement regarding the 4 teams quote you posted. I would like to see that information before kickoff so I can make adjustments if the facts turn out to back your claim.

 

[MGMan]

I think fish swim better than Chiefs, whatever a Chief is, is a CEO, therefore being more elusive the Dolphins will cover the 4.5 spread. Vegas knows it's cold and everyone is saying the warm weather team won't cover. If that's the case, why isn't the spread 7. I wonder what the favorite covering is when the spread is 4 to 5.5. I think dogs cover more often. The other thing is, the team that wins usually covers so who do you think is going to win.

Good luck with your plays guys!

 

[G-Man!]

Everybody seems to be keyed in on Tua playing in the cold

but the team that makes the fewest mistake on special teams wins this game.

Noooooo. The team who cant play in the cold loses this game...
I said the cold would be the issue...it was...
Phins are now 0-11 in temps under 40 degrees...
Arguments and debates are over.
Doubt you'll ever post another playoff game.

 

[G-Man!]

Says G-MAN - "The Miami Dolphins were outscored in the second half in 5 of 6 games against winning teams this season by a scoring margin of 86-42."

And AGAIN they were outscored 10 - Zip!
A second half SHUTOUT!

 

[G-Man!]

I forgot to mention the Dolphins will be "fired up" for this game.

More like flash frozen...

 

[Serbone]

SO, from these two lines, alone, you picked Miami:



Miami has not won in the wild card round since beating the Colts at home in OT back in 2000.

The Chiefs are 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS at home in the wild card round all-time, winning and covering their last game in 2021 against the Steelers.

These stats / trends were meaningless, worthless.
No way anybody would pick Miami with this alone as you claim.
I said 27-10 KC based upon factual current real information. It was 26-7. I apologize for missing the exact final score.