2023 NHL First Round Series Prices.

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Pacific Division​

Vegas Golden Knights​

Record: 51-22-9, 111 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: What allowed the Golden Knights to return to the playoffs after a one-year absence? They continually received contributions from every person in their lineup at some point this season.
They have 20 players with more than 10 points, 12 players with more than 10 goals, and have five goaltenders with at least two wins. Robin Lehner was lost before the season started, while Mark Stone was limited to 43 games; players stepped up in their places to get them to the top of the Western Conference.
The strength of the Knights has been their collective, and it could be the item that leads to them making a strong postseason run.

Biggest flaws: Both special teams. Much of the Golden Knights' success this season has come in 5-on-5 play. Just look at all their underlying metrics in those sequences. What they have done on either the penalty kill or the power play is a different conversation altogether. On the surface, they have the No. 19 penalty kill, with a 77.6% success rate. And while their PK unit had the fewest minutes played this season, Natural Stat Trick's metrics show the Knights were ninth in scoring chances allowed per 60, and 12th in goals allowed per 60.
Their power play is in a somewhat similar state, with a 20.3% success rate, which ranks 18th. Part of the issue is the Golden Knights averaged the lowest amount of time spent on the power play in the NHL, at 4:14 per contest. And while they are in the top 10 in shots per 60 and scoring chances per 60, it's brought back a return that ranks 18th in goals per 60. Jonathan Marchessault led the team in power-play points, with 16. For context, that puts him No. 119 among NHL skaters.

Player to watch: Mark Stone. He was out of the lineup after having his second back surgery in less than a year. That led to the Golden Knights trading for Ivan Barbashev at the deadline to fill that void. But Stone started practicing April 10 in a noncontact sweater, and was a full participant in practice Saturday. Whenever Stone is inserted into the lineup, he'll give the Golden Knights another top-six forward who can be trusted to play in every situation.

Bold prediction: Eichel, who has never played in the postseason, will lead the NHL in points after the first round.

 

[Greenbacks]

Edmonton Oilers​

Record: 50-23-9, 109 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: Few teams have been as dangerous as the Oilers since the final week of trade season. Since March 1, they are 18-2-1, and have led the NHL in scoring while also allowing the eighth-fewest goals in that time -- a promising sign for a team that has struggled with finding defensive consistency.
Then there's that whole bit about having three 100-point scorers in Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, while having nearly 13 players on the roster who have scored 10 or more goals this season.

Biggest flaws: Can the Oilers harness their late-season defensive success throughout the playoffs? That's been one of the most notable questions facing the Oilers. And so far, they are showing they could have everything needed to not only return to the Western Conference finals for a consecutive season, but possibly reach the Stanley Cup Final.

Player to watch: Connor McDavid. The best player on the planet just had the best season of his life and has shown little reason to believe that will not continue into the postseason.

Bold prediction: McDavid will join Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux as the only players to score more than 40 points in an individual postseason campaign ... en route to winning the Conn Smythe as MVP of the playoffs.

 

[Greenbacks]

Los Angeles Kings​

Record: 47-25-10, 104 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: Part of the narrative with the Kings was the hypothetical of: What could they be in the event they found consistent goaltending? Promoting Pheonix Copley while getting Joonas Korpisalo at the trade deadline has offered insight into why the Kings could be one of the more dangerous teams in the discussion.
They're one of a number of teams that have received offensive contributions from everyone, and their underlying defensive metrics show they are in the top 10 in scoring chances allowed per 60, shots allowed per 60 and high-danger chances allowed per 60. And now they appear to have the goaltending to present themselves as one of the more complete options in the Western Conference.

Biggest flaw: Playoff experience among their goaltenders. The Kings will enter the postseason with two goaltenders who have a combined nine games of postseason play between them, with all of those games belonging to Korpisalo.
What the Kings are banking on is Korpisalo can perform like he did during the 2020 playoffs, when he was one of the major reasons the Columbus Blue Jackets had success. He shut out the Maple Leafs twice to win three games in the qualifying round, and despite losing three starts in the first round against the Lightning, Korpisalo played a significant role in why those defeats all came in one-goal games.

Player to watch: Joonas Korpisalo. Clearly, there is a theme with the Kings, and it is one that is centered around goaltending. What the Kings have seen from Korpisalo in the time they've had him is a goalie who can do his part to win games or keep them in games, as evidenced by the fact his first three losses were all in one-goal games.

Bold prediction: The Kings will win at least two playoff rounds.

 

[Greenbacks]

Winnipeg Jets​

Record: 46-33-3, 95 points

Case for a Stanley Cup run: Earlier this season, there was a point at which the Jets looked like they could have been the best team in the West. Since then, they've become a team that had to fight just to reach the playoffs.
What makes the Jets so mystifying is the same thing that could make them hard to assess in the postseason: The Jets have the sort of promise which might allow them to get beyond the first round. Or it could see them go home after a short stint in the first round, too.

Biggest flaw(s): Consistently scoring goals. They're 16th in scoring chances per 60, 20th in shots per game and are in the bottom third in high-danger goals per 60. They also have a power play with a 19.3% success rate in the regular season, which ranked 23rd in the NHL and is also the lowest of any team that qualified for the playoffs. In other words, the Jets are the least dangerous offensive team going into the playoffs.

Player to watch: Connor Hellebuyck. Much can be said about the importance of having a Vezina Trophy winner like Hellebuyck. Yet the item that further underlines his contributions is the fact that the Jets played only three games since March 1 in which Hellebuyck was not the starting goaltender. And for a team that struggles to score like the Jets, it's what makes Hellebuyck even more important to their cause.

Bold prediction: The Jets will win their first-round playoff series.

 

[Greenbacks]

What's the Presidents' Trophy curse?

There have been 36 previous Presidents' Trophy winners for having the league's best record. Only 11 of them advanced to the Stanley Cup Final, and only eight of those teams hoisted the Cup. Only three teams in the salary cap era (since 2005-06) have won the Presidents' Trophy and advanced to the Stanley Cup Final.
It's only gotten tougher in recent years. Since the NHL changed to a wild-card format in 2013-14, there hasn't been a single Presidents' Trophy winner that has advanced to the Stanley Cup Final. That Tampa Bay Lightning team whose points record the Bruins topped? It was swept in the first round by the Columbus Blue Jackets and goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, who plays for the Bruins' first-round opponent in the Florida Panthers. (As does potential MVP candidate Matthew Tkachuk, whom the Panthers acquired last offseason in a blockbuster trade.)
Otherwise, seven Presidents' Trophy-winning teams in the wild-card era lost in the second round. That's where the Bruins could meet either the Toronto Maple Leafs or the Lightning after their fascinating first-round series.

 

[Greenbacks]

The Leafs and Lightning in the first round again, eh?

The current playoff format has deemed it so!
Tampa Bay eliminated Toronto in seven games last season after another stereotypical collapse for the Leafs, who haven't won a playoff series since 2004. But that streak could end here. Toronto was 13 points better in the standings than the Lightning. The Leafs are loaded offensively with 40-goal scorers Auston Matthews and William Nylander, Mitch Marner (99 points) and John Tavares, who played at a point-per-game pace. In Ilya Samsonov, they might have found their answer in goal. They acquired Ryan O'Reilly at the trade deadline from St. Louis, a former playoff MVP whose postseason savvy could transfer to his teammates through hockey osmosis.
The Lightning have been to the Stanley Cup Final for three straight seasons, winning back-to-back Cups before falling to the Colorado Avalanche last postseason. Has roster attrition finally caught up with coach Jon Cooper's squad? Tampa is still coping with the losses of defenseman Ryan McDonagh (traded to Nashville) and clutch forward Ondrej Palat (signed with New Jersey). But the Lightning still have a foundation of Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and especially Andrei Vasilevskiy. Which means they have a chance in any series.
But time comes for every champion. Just ask Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin as they watch the playoffs from home this spring.

 

[Greenbacks]

What can we expect from a Devils vs. Rangers series?

Lots of blue in New Jersey and an increasing amount of red at Madison Square Garden.
For the first time since the New Jersey Devils eliminated the New York Rangers in the 2012 Eastern Conference finals, these unfriendly neighbors will square off in the playoffs. The Rangers made the conference finals last season with star goalie Igor Shesterkin, Norris-winning defenseman Adam Fox and star forwards Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad.
The Rangers' star power only intensified at the trade deadline: They acquired Chicago Blackhawks superstar Patrick Kane and St. Louis Blues scorer Vladimir Tarasenko. Kane, seeking his fourth career Stanley Cup win, has 12 points in 19 games for the Rangers.
The Devils, meanwhile, ended their rebuild with their first playoff berth since 2018. The season began with fans chanting for coach Lindy Ruff to be fired. It ended with a franchise record for points in a season (112) and with star center Jack Hughes setting a new franchise single-season scoring record (99 points). Hughes, Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt, as well as defenseman Dougie Hamilton, fuel the Devils' high-tempo offense and aggressive defense.
The Devils' 49-point increase in the standings year over year was one of the most dramatic in NHL history ... and almost matched by the turnaround for the second-year Seattle Kraken in the West.

 

[Greenbacks]

How did the Kraken make the playoffs?

Many were disappointed when the Kraken didn't replicate the first-year success of the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, failing to make the playoffs let alone make the Stanley Cup Final like Vegas did. But they cracked the code in Year 2, posting a 100-point season for a 60-point improvement year over year.
Unlike last season, their goaltending was good when it needed to be, although ultimately the Kraken finished 30th in team save percentage. But it was Seattle's offense that made them a playoff team, finishing fourth in the NHL in goals per game thanks to a 40-goal season from Jared McCann, a career high in points by defenseman Vince Dunn and most importantly a breakout season from rookie center Matty Beniers. The Calder Trophy favorite had 57 points in 80 games, playing big minutes.
The Kraken finished in the first wild-card spot, earning them a first-round date with the Central Division champion Colorado Avalanche.

 

[Greenbacks]

What's the deal with the Avalanche?

Things for the defending Stanley Cup champions are ... different. Last summer saw the departure of center Nazem Kadri (Flames) and Andre Burakovsky (Kraken) -- who were both among their top-5 scorers -- as well as starting goalie Darcy Kuemper (Capitals), whom they replaced with Rangers backup Alexandar Georgiev. This season saw the injury bug munching on the Avs, as only eight players managed to appear in 70 games. Captain Gabriel Landeskog missed the season and has now been ruled out for the postseason as well.
Unfortunately for the Kraken, some things are the same for the Avalanche. Like winger Mikko Rantanen, who scored 55 goals this season to set a career high, and defenseman Cale Makar, who had 65 points in 60 games. Like the will of Nathan MacKinnon, their leading scorer with 111 points. He factored in on all four goals they scored in Friday's win over Nashville to earn the Central Division title over Dallas. As we saw last postseason: MacKinnon will push his team as far as it can go.

 

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1647935731728363521

 

[Michelangelo]

THe Bruins, who smashed NHL records that held for years, are only -355 to win their first series?

I've seen baseball teams favored by more than that for a game.

I don't ever bet anything "future" but if I did, I'd be all over this.

 

[2the9s]

View attachment 64958

McDavid and Pastrnak both have a shot this year. I've said it before, but a Boston/Edmonton final would be epic.

 

[2the9s]

So much money has come in on Edmonton and Florida that the G1 line is the same in Edm/La as it is in Bos/Fl. This seems wrong. I know the Panthers have a hot goalie, but being a career backup with a lifetime gaa of over 3.3 seems like a bigger factor than <10 games of good play.

Either these games are equal mismatches or one of the lines is off. My guess is that there's some value on Boston at -200 or thereabouts.

 

[Greenbacks]

Bruins will be pushed
They will have to earn it

 

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1647979479585660929

 

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1648092893494534147