Record: 46-30-6, 98 points
Case for a Stanley Cup run: Well, it's Tampa Bay. The Lightning have been counted out before and proved their doubters wrong.
The most recent back-to-back Cup winners were top-10 in scoring this season and boasted a top-three power play that could be a major difference-maker.
Andrei Vasilevskiy remains one of the NHL's top goaltenders,
Nikita Kucherov surpassed 100 points again this season and
Brayden Point might have produced the stealthiest 50-goal showing ever.
All that is well and good but the bottom line: Tampa Bay knows how to win. When the stakes are highest, coach Jon Cooper can get the most of his roster. There truly is no substitute for that type of experience.
Biggest flaws: The Lightning uncharacteristically stumbled out of the regular season, losing eight of their final 12 games and being badly outscored by lesser competition. That Cooper had to send a message by benching some of his stars revealed some potential cracks in Tampa Bay's armor.
The Lightning might be able to score, but they give up too much too, allowing over three goals and nearly 32 shots per game. Their overall team defense has lacked consistency and those bottom-six contributions the Lightning have leaned on in the past aren't showing up as readily.
Is all that a sign Tampa Bay is finally too fatigued to go on another long run? It eventually happens to every repeat contender. And the Lightning have played a lot of hockey the past three years.
Player to watch: Victor Hedman. No skater has a larger collective impact on Tampa Bay's success than its stalwart top defenseman. Hedman is the Lightning's backbone, their muscle who can produce in every facet of the game. He's a savvy veteran who, if needed, can will the club to a tight victory. There's no question Hedman will give everything he has every shift and that it will power the Lightning to whatever end lies ahead.
Bold prediction: Tampa Bay's scoring dries up early in postseason, and Vasilevskiy looks human for the first time in years. The Lightning can't keep up with the Leafs and fall short of advancing past the first round for the first time in four years.