Anne is kinda cute in that pic. Thanks for sharing ?
Action was all Philly early from the opener of Phi -1 at the Superbook moving the line to -2 1/2.
The Bengals +3 were hammered by the so called sharps and the public, knocking the line down a point at a time, all the way to Cincinnati -1, There was eventually saw some buyback on K.C. +1 and pick, moving the line to where it's settled at Chiefs -1.
No wagers for me on either game at this point very early in the week.
Cin/Phi I've seen nothing yet for me to wager at this point though.
Large bets so far at Ceasars
$220K Bengals +1 at Chiefs
$110K Bengals moneyline (even)
$129K Eagles -2.5 vs 49ers
$220K Bengals +1 at Chiefs
$110K Bengals moneyline (even)
$129K Eagles -2.5 vs 49ers
Vegas, admittedly, listed the wrong line for the CIN -KC game when they opened it at Cincinnati +3. They have since moved the like to Cincinnati -2, more than likely to get some buy back KC handle.
From what I've heard the line would have opened KC -5 1/2 if Mahomie was 100 percent healthy. On the other end of the spectrum, if by slim chance he doesn't play i think it would be the total opposite, at least CIN -5 1/2.
As of now no play for me on either side.
From what I've heard the line would have opened KC -5 1/2 if Mahomie was 100 percent healthy. On the other end of the spectrum, if by slim chance he doesn't play i think it would be the total opposite, at least CIN -5 1/2.
As of now no play for me on either side.
I was told it would be about 5 1/2 if he was out. Westgate took a huge hit when they opened the line at Cincy +3
@Avocado33 you asked the question in another thread.
Didn't make a very early play after the openers because I didn't get any exact info that I wanted to make any wager as I have with previous wagers. I was real close to posting and making a wager on Cincy plus points due to early respected money that was placed on Cincy at +2 1/2 as soon as the line came out but I didn't and now that opportunity is lost. Prob won't play that game now due to Maholmes ankle uncertainty and now that they're the fav. Philadelphia and San Francisco very close matchup in my estimation. Haven't made any decision on that game yet. I may lay off the games and just watch them both, not 100 percent sure at this point.
Didn't make a very early play after the openers because I didn't get any exact info that I wanted to make any wager as I have with previous wagers. I was real close to posting and making a wager on Cincy plus points due to early respected money that was placed on Cincy at +2 1/2 as soon as the line came out but I didn't and now that opportunity is lost. Prob won't play that game now due to Maholmes ankle uncertainty and now that they're the fav. Philadelphia and San Francisco very close matchup in my estimation. Haven't made any decision on that game yet. I may lay off the games and just watch them both, not 100 percent sure at this point.
I was curious and I thought some of you may be interested in this. I went through all the final scores this season, including the playoffs so far and below is the amount of times a final score landed on each number and the percentage that it happened. If you want to know how many times a final score landed in a certain range of numbers just simply do the math. For instance, a final score of 3 or less (including ties) was 76 times (27.1%) etc. The total number of outcomes = 280.
I've said before lines between 4 and 6 (4 1/2, 5, 5 1/2) are dead numbers and you can see that for this season as a spread of 4 1/2 to 5 1/2 has had only 3.9% outcomes of a game final score landing on exactly 5 points. Surprisingly to me an exact 1 point outcome was the 5th highest this season.
Both Championship games this week have a spread of 3 or less. Something to keep in mind possibly with the exact outcome percentages below.
3 pts - (47) 16.8%
7 pts - (23) 8.2%
6 pts - (19) 6.8%
4 pts – (18) 6.4%
1 pts - (17) 6.1%
10 pts – (15) 5.4%
8 pts – (14) 5%
14 pts – (13) 4.6%
5 pts - (11) 3.9%
2 pts – (10) 3.6%
17 pts – (9) 3.2%
16 pts – (8) 2.9%
13 pts – (7) 2.5%
9 pts – (7) 2.5%
12 pts – (6) 2.1%
11 pts – (5) 1.8%
15 pts – (5) 1.8%
18 pts – (5) 1.8%
21 pts - (5) 1.8%
22 pts – (5) 1.8%
28 pts – (5) 1.8%
23 pts – (4) 1.4%
20 pts – (3) 1.0%
24 pts – (3) 1.0%
0 pts – (2) .72%
19 pts – (2) .72%
25 pts – (2) .72%
26 pts – (2) .72%
31 pts – (2) .72%
35 pts – (2) .72%
29 pts – (1) .36%
33 pts – (1) .36%
34 pts – (1) .36%
37 pts – (1) .36%
I've said before lines between 4 and 6 (4 1/2, 5, 5 1/2) are dead numbers and you can see that for this season as a spread of 4 1/2 to 5 1/2 has had only 3.9% outcomes of a game final score landing on exactly 5 points. Surprisingly to me an exact 1 point outcome was the 5th highest this season.
Both Championship games this week have a spread of 3 or less. Something to keep in mind possibly with the exact outcome percentages below.
3 pts - (47) 16.8%
7 pts - (23) 8.2%
6 pts - (19) 6.8%
4 pts – (18) 6.4%
1 pts - (17) 6.1%
10 pts – (15) 5.4%
8 pts – (14) 5%
14 pts – (13) 4.6%
5 pts - (11) 3.9%
2 pts – (10) 3.6%
17 pts – (9) 3.2%
16 pts – (8) 2.9%
13 pts – (7) 2.5%
9 pts – (7) 2.5%
12 pts – (6) 2.1%
11 pts – (5) 1.8%
15 pts – (5) 1.8%
18 pts – (5) 1.8%
21 pts - (5) 1.8%
22 pts – (5) 1.8%
28 pts – (5) 1.8%
23 pts – (4) 1.4%
20 pts – (3) 1.0%
24 pts – (3) 1.0%
0 pts – (2) .72%
19 pts – (2) .72%
25 pts – (2) .72%
26 pts – (2) .72%
31 pts – (2) .72%
35 pts – (2) .72%
29 pts – (1) .36%
33 pts – (1) .36%
34 pts – (1) .36%
37 pts – (1) .36%
Westgate would have opened this game at KC -5 or -5 1/2 with a completely healthy QB. I know that for fact.
Another interesting fact regarding the KC/CIN matchup. I know Mahomes won't be 100 percent healthy for this game.....The Bengals & Burrow are 3-0 SU and ATS against Kansas City over the past two seasons. In those 3 games Kansas City, at some point in those games, held a double digit lead. I don't put much, if any emphasis on it just throwing it out there.
Of the 47 games landing on 3, how many games was it significant?Meaning the team that won by 3 the spread was -2' or -3 or -3'. JUst curious? If a team is favored by 3 and they lose by 3, doesn t really matter if they lost by 6,7,10.Spread is not a factor.Certainly 3 by far the most key number of where final scores land.
Look it up? I was just providing info on how many times each final score differential came into play this season.
I counted 15 games of the 47, where the 3 mattered and it was important to have a good # to get the push or win.THats 15 games of 272.Thats about 5.3% of the time.So when the line is 3 about 1 out of 18 games it will be very important to have a good # when the game ends on 3.At least that was true for 2022 season.I would check other years but i am Lo tech and traveling with the dinosaurs. so I will assume it is usually right around 5% of the time.
280 games. I included the playoffs.
I didn't check to see how many times each outcome came into play with the spread. Just posted to show the % of each outcome and it can be used any way someone wants to. For instance.
Outcome of 3 or less (27.1%)
Outcomeof exactly 3 (16.8%)
Outcome of exactly 5 (3.9%)
Outcome of exactly 7 (8.2%)
That can be used to show, since 5 is pretty much a dead number.....If you take the dog and the line is 4 1/2 it may be worthwhile to play a alternate line at +7 1/2 and pay about -150 if you wanted a higher % to cover. Or if you play the fav and the line is 5 1/2 you can play alt line at 4 1/2 at plus money if its offered at your book.
Almost 10% of the time a game ends with a outcome of 1 or 2.
Only 2% of the time a team has lost by more than 30.
Etc etc.
