Hi Jack, Appreciate you coming towards a more at the track betting model. I'm still hung up on not being able to lay in to a horse where I think its appropriate.
I have already sent a friend of mine to the track to bet $200.00 on a horse in the first race at Gulfstream. (I'll be going up to the track in the next hour or two when I get my jobs done.) I think that his chances of winning are very, very, very strong. That is a rare sized bet for me. But I'm expecting him to be in the 1-1 neighborhood. He may be 3/5. I will still bet him. I need to lay in to him whereas most of the other horses I bet have a much lesser chance of winning. I adjust my bet downward for them. Downward being my base bet of $12.00. Some will be $16.00. Some $24.00. Some $36.00 Some $48.00. All depends on what I determine their odds of winning when compared to their board odds.
I asked for a max bet of $100.00. Maybe after reading this explanation you could compromise with me at $48.00. I'd even settle for $36.00 if I have to. But I need something that is at least three or four times my base bet so that I can scale my probability of winning to the bet.
THanks. If you allow me this, I'm in. Would love to join in with the fun. You're a good bunch of guys.
PS The horse is the #8 in the 1st race at Gulfstream, Mogalu.
Root me home. Don't want to start the day $200.00 in the hole. Thanks.