Those large favs all seem safe except maybe Janney, personally wouldn't bother with that one at the current price. Wouldn't stun me to see Metcalf edge it as perhaps only viable category for Lady Bird to win and the performance, according to critics, was superior to Janney. Even Manville wouldn't shock me if votes are spread around.
Best Pic - I think Shape is the slight fav instead of 3B but most of the people who follow this "awards season" do claim four, maybe five films can actually win. Shape, 3B, Get Out, Dunkirk, maybe Ladybird, probably in that order. Guess the feeling is if its a close first tally and the preferential ballot really takes hold having to eliminate 4,5,6 or even 7 other films then it opens it up to a true consensus pick. Betting purposes Get Out odds have dropped quite a bit, not sure its worth at sub 10-1. Dunkirk at 30-1+ worth a small bet and Shape if you can get +150ish worth a bet.
-Acting categories huge favs as the leaders have won literally every big awards show up to this point. Small bet on Metcalf around 5-1 and tiny bet on Manville at almost 50-1 are the only interests here.
-Foreign Film may have an upset as Fantastic Woman despite being timely (movie about a transgender) hasn't really won much leading up is has become the sort of defacto choice. The Insult appears to play into the traditional academy tastes and a few experts are saying this may get the nod. Odds still available between 10-15 to one are very much worth a bet.
-Documentary Feature opinion appears split on Faces Places and Icarus. Icarus obvious bet at almost 3-1.
-Original Score taking a shot at Phantom Thread over the prohibitive betting fav Shape of Water. Supposedly deep hidden support for Phantom Thread and those that talk about these scores just on merit seem to favor Phantom Thread. I think at 10-1 its worth a try.
-Animated Short interesting category. Many have just assumed Kobe Bryant's "Dear Basketball" will prevail due to voters clearly knowing/loving him and the Lakers. I don't doubt he will get some cheap votes but the problem is almost everyone who actually watches all five nominees unanimously says it is the worst. While the animation (some famous illustrator Kobe contracted) is fine the complaints are that the 5 min short just plays like a commercial for Kobe Bryant and offers nothing more. Second betting fav Lou is possible but odds don't seems to reflect accurately. Garden Party appears to be the next in line at almost 10-1, great value. The other two are also plausible and can be had at 25-1+ odds.
-Doc Short likely Dekalb Elementary about shooter taking school hostage or something like that. Suppose to be one of the better ones to start and with the subject matter I find it hard to believe the voters won't go this way. Odds not too enticing though, suppose anything under -250 worth a small bet.