2018 achandicap soccer plays

[achandicap]

A lot of my plays are based on power ratings and metrics, and then how the odds react to my ratings. In the case of Atalanta, my numbers actually had Udinese as a favorite. So when the line came out in favor strongly of Atalanta (even with the injury), that said to me the linemakers know more than my simple numbers show and Atalanta was the play. If a number looks wrong, it probably is for a reason.

MONDAY
ENGLAND
Watford +.5 +122/Everton, 2 units

 

[richporter]

another one i took draw no AH and got lucky late nice call again gluck hopefully crush Champions league today and tomorrow

 

[achandicap]

TUESDAY
CHAMPS (early)
Galatasaray PK -115/Porto, 2 units

 

[achandicap]

CHAMPS
Tottenham +.5 -126/Barcelona, 1 unit
Atletico Madrid -1 +112/Club Brugge, 1 unit
Inter -1.5 +112/PSV, 3 units
Monaco +1 +102/Dortmund, 1 unit

 

[achandicap]

WEDNESDAY
CHAMPS
Plzen/Roma DRAW +247, 1 unit
Benfica -1.5 +120/AEK, 2 units
Hoffenheim +1.5 +108/Manchester City, 1 unit
Shakhtar/Lyon DRAW +272, 1 unit
Valencia/Manchester United DRAW +234, 1 unit
Juventus -1.5 +111/Young Boys, 1 unit

 

[achandicap]

THURSDAY
EUROPA (early)
Standard Liege -1 +110/Akhisarspor, 2 units
Besiktas -1 +115/Malmo, 3 units
Marseille -1.5 +102/Apollon, 1 unit
MOL Vidi +1 -110/Chelsea, 1 unit
Rapid Vienna PK -119/Rangers, 1 unit
Rennes -1 +109/Astana, 1 unit
Sevilla -1.5 -113/Krasnodar, 2 units
Villarreal -1.25 -108/Spartak Moscow, 2 units

 

[AlistairCookie]

Not sure I’ve ever seen you play so many favs. GL

 

[achandicap]

EUROPA (late)
Celtic PK -127/Salzburg, 1 unit
Dinamo Zagreb -1 -128/Anderlecht, 1 unit
Milan PK -118/Olympiakos, 2 units
Leipzig -2.5 -104/Rosenborg, 2 units
Slavia Prague -1 -121/Zenit, 2 units
Sporting -1.5 +104/Vorskla, 1 unit
Trnava PK -104/Fenerbahce, 1 unit

 

[achandicap]

SATURDAY
ENGLAND
Leicester PK +104/Crystal Palace, 2 units
Newcastle PK +109/Huddersfield, 2 units
West Ham PK -124/Fulham, 1 unit

ITALY
Udinese +1.5 -112/Inter, 1 unit

 

[achandicap]

SUNDAY
ENGLAND
Chelsea -1 -130/Brighton, 5 units

ITALY
Cagliari +1.5 -129/Napoli, 2 units
Genoa +1.25 -118/Roma, 2 units

 

[achandicap]

SATURDAY
ENGLAND
Huddersfield/Southampton DRAW +211, 2 units
Cardiff +1 -119/Manchester United, 2 units

ITALY
Cagliari +1.5 -119/Lazio, 2 units
Empoli/Sampdoria DRAW +245, 1 unit
Genoa +.5 -101/Atalanta, 2 units
Sassuolo/Torino DRAW +225, 1 unit
Frosinone +.5 +119/Udinese, 1 unit
Parma PK -126/Bologna, 2 units

Record: 570.5-652, +59.94

 

[achandicap]

SUNDAY
ENGLAND
Tottenham -.5 +126/Everton, 2 units

 

[achandicap]

WEDNESDAY (Boxing Day!)
ENGLAND
Burnley +.5 -109/Everton, 1 unit
Leicester +1.5 -114/Manchester City, 2 units
Huddersfield +1.5 +113/Manchester United, 3 units
Bournmouth +1.5 -119/Tottenham, 1 unit
Brighton +.5 +120/Arsenal, 4 units
Watford +1 -130/Chelsea, 2 units

ITALY
Bologna +.5 +124/Lazio, 1 unit
Cagliari/Genoa DRAW +217, 1 unit
Parma +1 -104/Fiorentina, 1 unit
SPAL/Udinese DRAW +208, 2 units
Empoli +.5 +121/Torino, 1 unit

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

favorites and overs on fire today in EPL, damnit

 

[achandicap]

SATURDAY
ENGLAND
Brighton +.25 -109/Everton, 2 units
Huddersfield +.5 -121/Fulham, 1 unit
Newcastle +.5 +113/Watford, 3 units

ITALY
Frosinone +.25 -106/Chievo, 3 units
Emoli +1 +104/Inter, 1 unit
Genoa/Fiorentina DRAW +226, 1 unit
Torino +.75 +101/Lazio, 4 units
Parma +.75 +101/Roma, 2 units
Sassuolo +.5 -126/Atalanta, 4 units
Udinese/Cagliari DRAW +211, 2 units
Bologna +1.5 +111/Napoli, 1 unit

 

[achandicap]

On the last day of 2018 soccer plays, I give to you...

ENGLAND
Crystal Palace +.75 +104/Chelsea, 1 unit
Southampton +1.5 +110/Manchester City, 2 units
Bournemouth +1.5 -124/Manchester United, 1 unit

 

[achandicap]

Final tally for 2018: 583.5-669.5, +59.45 units. The World Cup killed me. I lost 27.82 units there, including an almost impossible 0-20 on 2-unit bets. My other big loser was Colombia (-25.93). I made it back on Brazil (44.57 units), Sudamericana (24.32) and Europa (22.54). Interestingly, my unit plays were almost perfect, in that I won more as the plays got bigger.

1 unit: -5.15
2 units: -14.46 (-28.93)
3 units: +5.24 (+15.72)
4 units: +5.02 (+20.08)
5 units: +11.55 (+57.73)

I could have just played my 5-unit plays (Record: 46-32.5) and made just 1.7 units less over the entire year. But what fun would that be? See you in 2019 in a new thread.