Kelly is a huge part of UT offense, no doubt. My method is statistical in nature, so losing a top O player definitely makes a difference, but I still like UT for the following reasons.
1. I group teams offenses by type - running, passing or balanced. Most teams fall in the balanced category - Tennessee is no different. Over the last 4 games, they run the ball 60% of the time (NCAA average is 56% over every D1 team last 4). Due to the injury, Tennessee may change a bit, but I can't see them turning into a passing team due to this injury.
2. The backup Ty Chandler is no slouch. He is second string of course, but it is very possible that he may replace Kelly and do just as well - I think most handicappers overvalue current starters and undervalue backups. Could be wrong here, but the falloff in talent may not be as significant as it seems.
3. I look a lot at defenses and their opponents over the last 4 games, and then look at how that defense performs against the opponent's bias. Tennessee, after adjusting their numbers for playing good offenses (Alabama, Georgia especially, but even UMASS has high ranked O last 4), their overall defense actually ranks 20th in nation. Kentucky, after doing the same adjustments (they have not played as strong of offenses last 4), ranks 92nd. There is almost 100 yard difference in defenses.
So, you get points with a better defensive team who needs every win they can get to be bowl eligible. Yes, their offense has been bad, but the last 4 games, again, they played Alabama, Georgia who are top 10 defenses. Throw in South Carolina, who defensively is not as good as Bama or Georgia, but is also highly ranked, and it is not a surprise that Tennessee has struggled to move the ball.
Not that it matters at all, but Tennessee has owned Kentucky recently as well. You can look at that two ways of course.
My recommendation is that if you don't feel comfortable that "the next man up" at RB can produce against a bad defense, throw the game off the card.
Good luck,
HW
1. I group teams offenses by type - running, passing or balanced. Most teams fall in the balanced category - Tennessee is no different. Over the last 4 games, they run the ball 60% of the time (NCAA average is 56% over every D1 team last 4). Due to the injury, Tennessee may change a bit, but I can't see them turning into a passing team due to this injury.
2. The backup Ty Chandler is no slouch. He is second string of course, but it is very possible that he may replace Kelly and do just as well - I think most handicappers overvalue current starters and undervalue backups. Could be wrong here, but the falloff in talent may not be as significant as it seems.
3. I look a lot at defenses and their opponents over the last 4 games, and then look at how that defense performs against the opponent's bias. Tennessee, after adjusting their numbers for playing good offenses (Alabama, Georgia especially, but even UMASS has high ranked O last 4), their overall defense actually ranks 20th in nation. Kentucky, after doing the same adjustments (they have not played as strong of offenses last 4), ranks 92nd. There is almost 100 yard difference in defenses.
So, you get points with a better defensive team who needs every win they can get to be bowl eligible. Yes, their offense has been bad, but the last 4 games, again, they played Alabama, Georgia who are top 10 defenses. Throw in South Carolina, who defensively is not as good as Bama or Georgia, but is also highly ranked, and it is not a surprise that Tennessee has struggled to move the ball.
Not that it matters at all, but Tennessee has owned Kentucky recently as well. You can look at that two ways of course.
My recommendation is that if you don't feel comfortable that "the next man up" at RB can produce against a bad defense, throw the game off the card.
Good luck,
HW
