2016 NCAA Football Systems

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not running full group as so much stuff is neutral but a few in play...

PLAY ON teams looking to avenge an away loss as fav or tiny dog off a road game that wasn't a conf fav loss and playing opponent that just allowed >50 points (on WKY)
P:AL and P:line < 3 and p:A and 49 < Po:points < 62 and F and (p:CFL) = False and op:line < 21
SU:32-1-0 (19.79, 97.0%)Teaser Records
ATS:27-4-2 (9.27, 87.1%) avg line: -10.5+6: 30-3-0 (90.9%) -6: 18-15-0 (54.5%) +10: 30-3-0 (90.9%) -10: 18-15-0 (54.5%)
O/U:9-6-1 (0.97, 60.0%) avg total: 56.8+6: 6-9-1 (40.0%) -6: 12-4-0 (75.0%) +10: 5-10-1 (33.3%) -10: 13-3-0 (81.2%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team42.9210.628.617.6253.91.19.211.910.16.537.5
Opp32.3125.238.521.8248.81.85.27.62.15.017.7
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 03, 2016Saturday142016WKYLTCHhome-10.081.0


PLAY ON fav off a double digit win vs opponent off a big dog SU win. (on OKLA)
HF and -14.5 < line < -2 and p:margin > 9 and op:DW and op:line > 4.5
SU:101-15-0 (14.92, 87.1%)Teaser Records
ATS:84-32-0 (6.52, 72.4%) avg line: -8.4+6: 94-22-0 (81.0%) -6: 66-50-0 (56.9%) +10: 100-16-0 (86.2%) -10: 43-70-3 (38.1%)
O/U:19-18-2 (0.37, 51.4%) avg total: 52.0+6: 14-23-2 (37.8%) -6: 30-9-0 (76.9%) +10: 7-31-1 (18.4%) -10: 31-7-1 (81.6%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team39.5198.428.817.8219.71.76.89.16.311.032.2
Opp34.3130.331.717.6194.32.42.96.54.74.817.3
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 03, 2016Saturday142016OKLAOKSThome-11.077.0

OPPOSE 9+ win teams that aren't favored by at least 2 TD vs under .500 opponent (on GaSo)
wins > 8 and losses < 3 and o:WP < 50 and line > -16 and game type = RS and season > 1990
SU:33-11-0 (5.68, 75.0%)Teaser Records
ATS:12-31-1 (-3.49, 27.9%) avg line: -9.2+6: 23-20-1 (53.5%) -6: 10-33-1 (23.3%) +10: 31-13-0 (70.5%) -10: 8-36-0 (18.2%)
O/U:10-18-0 (-2.02, 35.7%) avg total: 53.3+6: 7-21-0 (25.0%) -6: 16-12-0 (57.1%) +10: 5-23-0 (17.9%) -10: 19-8-1 (70.4%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team38.0151.832.820.1250.41.25.29.17.06.828.4
Opp35.4144.533.918.7223.02.06.07.65.53.322.7
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 03, 2016Saturday142016TROYGSOUaway-7.054.0



OPPOSE losing teams in final game of year that won 6+ last year (on IDAHO)
game number = 12 and WP < 50 and PRSW >= 6 and p:D and p:line < 15.5 and A
SU:14-50-0 (-14.45, 21.9%)Teaser Records
ATS:19-44-1 (-4.95, 30.2%) avg line: 9.5+6: 35-28-1 (55.6%) -6: 11-53-0 (17.2%) +10: 40-23-1 (63.5%) -10: 7-57-0 (10.9%)
O/U:24-27-1 (0.75, 47.1%) avg total: 54.1+6: 18-33-1 (35.3%) -6: 31-20-1 (60.8%) +10: 13-38-1 (25.5%) -10: 36-15-1 (70.6%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team32.4117.333.518.8216.21.94.45.93.95.920.1
Opp42.6193.830.819.2234.21.47.611.08.07.534.6
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 03, 2016Saturday142016GASTIDAaway6.552.5

tiny sample size but PLAY ON conference title teams off DD loss vs opponent off DD win (on LT, on FLA)
game type = CH and p:margin < -9 and op:margin > 9 and season > 1997
SU:7-7-0 (-4.21, 50.0%)Teaser Records
ATS:12-2-0 (4.68, 85.7%) avg line: 8.9+6: 12-2-0 (85.7%) -6: 7-7-0 (50.0%) +10: 12-2-0 (85.7%) -10: 6-8-0 (42.9%)
O/U:5-3-0 (0.25, 62.5%) avg total: 54.9+6: 1-6-1 (14.3%) -6: 7-1-0 (87.5%) +10: 1-7-0 (12.5%) -10: 7-1-0 (87.5%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team37.4165.929.017.1194.42.15.46.77.45.125.5
Opp45.3204.132.418.6218.01.66.79.16.97.329.7
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 03, 2016Saturday142016FLAALAneutral24.041.00
Dec 03, 2016Saturday142016LTCHWKYaway10.081.0


back 4 bowls
 

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PLAY ON teams off b2b2b blowout losses and have won less than 1/4 of their home games (on Texas St)
p:margin < -26 and pp:margin < -26 and ppp:margin < -26 and season > 1981 and tA(o:points) < 54 and o:rest < 8 and HWP < 25
SU:13-48-2 (-13.81, 21.3%)Teaser Records
ATS:43-17-1 (4.43, 71.7%) avg line: 17.9+6: 50-11-0 (82.0%) -6: 29-30-2 (49.2%) +10: 55-6-0 (90.2%) -10: 21-38-2 (35.6%)
O/U:12-14-0 (2.27, 46.2%) avg total: 55.6+6: 9-17-0 (34.6%) -6: 17-8-1 (68.0%) +10: 9-17-0 (34.6%) -10: 19-7-0 (73.1%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team34.1138.933.518.2207.71.95.55.33.26.219.7
Opp42.5236.027.816.3211.81.08.113.37.76.933.6
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 03, 2016Saturday142016TXSTAKSThome23.053.0

 

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Bowl Specifics...will try to run full group before saturday

PLAY ON academies in bowl games vs opponents allowing 30 or less per game (on AFA)
(team = NAVY or team = ARMY or team = AIR) and game type = BG and otA(o:points) < 30.25
SU:20-14-0 (3.26, 58.8%)Teaser Records
ATS:26-8-0 (7.24, 76.5%) avg line: 4.0+6: 29-5-0 (85.3%) -6: 16-18-0 (47.1%) +10: 30-3-1 (90.9%) -10: 14-20-0 (41.2%)
O/U:8-6-0 (-1.68, 57.1%) avg total: 54.8+6: 3-11-0 (21.4%) -6: 9-5-0 (64.3%) +10: 3-11-0 (21.4%) -10: 9-5-0 (64.3%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team59.2299.712.66.589.71.46.87.84.38.927.8
Opp34.6178.926.917.0224.62.45.65.77.26.924.5
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 30, 2016Friday182016AIRSALAneutral-13.057.5


BOWL PLAY ON big dog (7.5+) in december bowl games <.750 vs <.750 teams if opponent didn't cover final regular season game by more than a TD (on MIN, on MIA OH)
line <= -8 and game type = BG and F and month = 12 and (conference = P10 or conference = P12 or conference = ACC or conference = B10 or conference = SEC)
SU:33-17-0 (3.80, 66.0%)Teaser Records
ATS:13-35-2 (-7.00, 27.1%) avg line: -10.8+6: 24-26-0 (48.0%) -6: 8-42-0 (16.0%) +10: 29-20-1 (59.2%) -10: 5-44-1 (10.2%)
O/U:8-4-0 (10.21, 66.7%) avg total: 61.6+6: 7-4-1 (63.6%) -6: 8-4-0 (66.7%) +10: 7-5-0 (58.3%) -10: 9-2-1 (81.8%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team37.4210.530.119.1265.71.310.012.38.98.529.1
Opp45.4209.531.319.4243.31.78.310.36.86.625.3
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 27, 2016Tuesday182016WASTMINneutral-9.061.50
Dec 26, 2016Monday172016MSSTMIAOneutral-13.058.5


oppose bowl teams with far more rest than opponent and big disparity in winning percentage (on ARMY)
game type == BG and rest - o:rest > 13 and (WP > o:WP or WP - o:WP < -15)
SU:31-39-0 (-4.19, 44.3%)Teaser Records
ATS:21-44-0 (-4.26, 32.3%) avg line: 0.3+6: 31-32-2 (49.2%) -6: 15-49-1 (23.4%) +10: 40-24-1 (62.5%) -10: 14-51-0 (21.5%)
O/U:8-6-0 (-0.89, 57.1%) avg total: 52.5+6: 3-10-1 (23.1%) -6: 8-6-0 (57.1%) +10: 2-12-0 (14.3%) -10: 8-5-1 (61.5%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team35.3127.029.016.1190.42.27.45.65.24.923.0
Opp35.6139.834.420.6237.51.95.98.77.86.027.2
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 27, 2016Tuesday182016NTXARMYneutral10.049.0



play on bowl teams not favored by 3+ scores that were hot before losing their last game as a home fav (on UGA)
p:HFL and p:streak >= 3 and game type = BG and line > -16
SU:30-11-0 (6.56, 73.2%)Teaser Records
ATS:32-9-0 (5.23, 78.0%) avg line: -1.3+6: 33-7-1 (82.5%) -6: 16-23-2 (41.0%) +10: 35-6-0 (85.4%) -10: 13-28-0 (31.7%)
O/U:9-8-0 (-0.47, 52.9%) avg total: 60.3+6: 8-9-0 (47.1%) -6: 11-6-0 (64.7%) +10: 4-13-0 (23.5%) -10: 14-3-0 (82.4%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team35.6173.937.622.9292.11.47.98.26.811.028.3
Opp37.6160.933.218.3212.62.24.87.26.27.321.7
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 30, 2016Friday182016GEOTCUneutral-1.048.5

UNDER late Dec bowl game with teams combined 16+ wins and 62+ ppg (many unders...)
month = 12 and game type = BG and wins + o:wins > 15 and tA(points) + otA(points) > 62 and total <= 66 and F and week > 16
SU:33-16-0 (6.10, 67.3%)Teaser Records
ATS:25-24-0 (0.67, 51.0%) avg line: -5.4+6: 34-13-2 (72.3%) -6: 19-29-1 (39.6%) +10: 38-11-0 (77.6%) -10: 16-33-0 (32.7%)
O/U:13-36-0 (-5.58, 26.5%) avg total: 57.7+6: 7-41-1 (14.6%) -6: 22-26-1 (45.8%) +10: 7-42-0 (14.3%) -10: 26-21-2 (55.3%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team37.5157.236.021.3242.72.26.77.96.18.029.1
Opp38.2141.432.918.2209.92.15.16.15.46.323.0
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 31, 2016Saturday182016LSULOUneutral-3.560.00
Dec 30, 2016Friday182016MICHFLSTneutral-7.054.00
Dec 30, 2016Friday182016TENNEBneutral-3.561.00
Dec 29, 2016Thursday182016COLOOKSTneutral-3.062.50
Dec 29, 2016Thursday182016SFLSCARneutral-10.562.50
Dec 29, 2016Thursday182016VTCHARKneutral-7.061.50
Dec 28, 2016Wednesday182016MIAFWVAneutral-3.056.00
Dec 28, 2016Wednesday182016TXAMKASTneutral-2.056.50
Dec 27, 2016Tuesday182016WASTMINneutral-9.061.50
Dec 23, 2016Friday172016LTCHNAVYneutral-4.566.00
Dec 23, 2016Friday172016OLDDEMCHneutral-4.064.00
Dec 21, 2016Wednesday172016BYUWYOneutral-8.556.0



UNDER 2+ win differential with team not on 3-6 game winning streak (many unders...)
game type = BG and (wins - o:wins > 1 or wins - o:wins < -1) and o:pRSW > 3 and PRSW > 3 and (2 < streak < 7) = False and week > 16 and total < 70
SU:67-71-0 (-0.33, 48.6%)Teaser Records
ATS:67-69-2 (0.00, 49.3%) avg line: 0.3+6: 90-47-1 (65.7%) -6: 46-91-1 (33.6%) +10: 102-34-2 (75.0%) -10: 31-105-2 (22.8%)
O/U:32-103-3 (-7.36, 23.7%) avg total: 55.0+6: 14-123-1 (10.2%) -6: 68-70-0 (49.3%) +10: 10-127-1 (7.3%) -10: 77-57-4 (57.5%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team36.8145.432.318.2211.51.85.66.74.96.323.7
Opp36.6144.232.418.5215.91.76.06.94.86.224.0
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Jan 02, 2017Monday182016OKLAAUBneutral-3.062.50
Jan 02, 2017Monday182016AUBOKLAneutral3.062.50
Jan 02, 2017Monday182016PNSTUSCneutral6.562.00
Jan 02, 2017Monday182016USCPNSTneutral-6.562.00
Jan 02, 2017Monday182016WISWMCHneutral-7.554.00
Dec 31, 2016Saturday182016LOULSUneutral3.560.00
Dec 31, 2016Saturday182016LSULOUneutral-3.560.00
Dec 30, 2016Friday182016SALAAIRneutral13.057.50
Dec 29, 2016Thursday182016VTCHARKneutral-7.061.50
Dec 29, 2016Thursday182016ARKVTCHneutral7.061.50
Dec 28, 2016Wednesday182016WVAMIAFneutral3.056.00
Dec 28, 2016Wednesday182016NORWPITneutral5.566.00
Dec 28, 2016Wednesday182016UTAHINDneutral-7.554.00
Dec 28, 2016Wednesday182016INDUTAHneutral7.554.00
Dec 27, 2016Tuesday182016BOISBAYneutral-7.567.0

OPPOSE bowl favs, not -4 to -7, off b2b losses (on IOWA, on INDY)
F and game type = BG and p:L and pp:L and ppp:margin < 30 and (line > -4 or line < -7)
SU:13-22-0 (-1.77, 37.1%)Teaser Records
ATS:5-29-1 (-6.37, 14.7%) avg line: -4.6+6: 20-14-1 (58.8%) -6: 4-31-0 (11.4%) +10: 25-9-1 (73.5%) -10: 3-31-1 (8.8%)
O/U:7-8-0 (-0.67, 46.7%) avg total: 57.0+6: 5-10-0 (33.3%) -6: 8-7-0 (53.3%) +10: 3-12-0 (20.0%) -10: 11-4-0 (73.3%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team31.7123.038.323.2282.11.94.87.66.39.128.1
Opp40.7147.531.317.5243.11.67.39.36.05.929.8
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Jan 02, 2017Monday182016FLAIOWAneutral-2.540.50
Dec 28, 2016Wednesday182016UTAHINDneutral-7.554.0



 

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R/tide........appreciate the info........BOL with all your Bowl action...........indy
 

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ok, bowl specifics are done.... now to see what the normal weekly stuff pops up. i will also include bowl-specific record for each system. hope you all enjoyed the info this year and, ahemm, ROLL TIDE!. merry christmas



PLAY ON team off b2b allowing <15 vs opponent off b2b allowing >30 (on Iowa) 2-1 ats
po:points < 15 and ppo:points < 15 and opo:points > 30 and oppo:points > 30 and date > 20071130 and game number > 3
SU:92-16-0 (19.69, 85.2%)Teaser Records
ATS:76-30-2 (4.67, 71.7%) avg line: -15.0+6: 86-21-1 (80.4%) -6: 48-56-4 (46.2%) +10: 93-15-0 (86.1%) -10: 38-69-1 (35.5%)
O/U:57-46-5 (3.14, 55.3%) avg total: 55.6+6: 44-64-0 (40.7%) -6: 79-29-0 (73.1%) +10: 35-73-0 (32.4%) -10: 84-24-0 (77.8%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team41.0206.929.919.2252.91.49.611.19.38.739.2
Opp34.4115.033.818.8218.22.04.26.04.14.719.5
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Jan 02, 2017Monday182016IOWAFLAneutral2.540.5




PLAY ON very high scoring team off blowout win vs elite defense (on ALA) 8-4 ats
tA(points) > 36.34 and game number > 6 and p:margin > 34 and 10.85 < otA(o:points) <= 21 and season > 2005
SU:51-20-0 (10.41, 71.8%)Teaser Records
ATS:49-22-0 (5.13, 69.0%) avg line: -5.3+6: 55-15-1 (78.6%) -6: 34-37-0 (47.9%) +10: 62-9-0 (87.3%) -10: 26-44-1 (37.1%)
O/U:33-36-2 (-0.26, 47.8%) avg total: 58.6+6: 22-47-2 (31.9%) -6: 43-27-1 (61.4%) +10: 17-53-1 (24.3%) -10: 49-21-1 (70.0%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team40.1199.932.020.2256.01.67.29.87.88.234.4
Opp35.5136.833.518.8229.41.94.67.15.96.324.0
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 31, 2016Saturday182016ALAWASneutral-14.554.0

OVER late nonconf game between two teams that don't turn it over much. (several below) 28-16 o/u
tA(turnovers) <= 1.25 and otA(turnovers) <= 1.25 and not C and game number > 7 and line < 19.5 and line > -19.5
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team37.1168.932.319.6236.71.66.67.15.79.028.6
Opp37.4170.731.719.1236.11.66.77.16.09.129.1
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Jan 02, 2017Monday182016WISWMCHneutral-7.554.00
Jan 02, 2017Monday182016WMCHWISneutral7.554.00
Dec 29, 2016Thursday182016SCARSFLneutral10.562.50
Dec 29, 2016Thursday182016SFLSCARneutral-10.562.50
Dec 28, 2016Wednesday182016PITNORWneutral-5.566.00
Dec 28, 2016Wednesday182016NORWPITneutral5.566.00
Dec 23, 2016Friday172016NAVYLTCHneutral4.566.00
Dec 23, 2016Friday172016LTCHNAVYneutral-4.566.00
Dec 17, 2016Saturday162016NMXUTSAhome-7.558.50
Dec 17, 2016Saturday162016UTSANMXaway7.558.50
Dec 17, 2016Saturday162016TOLAPPneutral-1.060.0

PLAY ON late season elite rushing team off b2b games outrushing opponent by 150+ vs terrible rush defense (on AFA, on ARMY, on BYU) 1-0 ats
otA(o:rushing yards) / otA(o:rushes) > 4.825 and game number > 6 and p:rushing yards - po:rushing yards > 150 and pp:rushing yards - ppo:rushing yards > 150
SU:54-6-0 (26.68, 90.0%)Teaser Records
ATS:46-12-2 (9.46, 79.3%) avg line: -17.2+6: 52-8-0 (86.7%) -6: 35-24-1 (59.3%) +10: 55-4-1 (93.2%) -10: 27-32-1 (45.8%)
O/U:38-22-0 (5.12, 63.3%) avg total: 59.6+6: 30-30-0 (50.0%) -6: 46-14-0 (76.7%) +10: 21-39-0 (35.0%) -10: 47-12-1 (79.7%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team47.8307.221.613.2184.21.111.014.810.49.045.7
Opp35.6133.533.519.0205.22.33.95.54.35.019.0
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 30, 2016Friday182016AIRSALAneutral-13.057.50
Dec 27, 2016Tuesday182016ARMYNTXneutral-10.049.00
Dec 21, 2016Wednesday172016BYUWYOneutral-8.556.0

PLAY ON away team off b2b 14+ point HT leads vs opponent that just allowed 38+ (on MTSU) 0-0 rarely away in bowls of course
site = away and opo:points > 37 and p:margin at the half > 13 and pp:margin at the half > 13 and op:margin at the half > -45
SU:65-20-0 (19.49, 76.5%)Teaser Records
ATS:60-23-2 (6.87, 72.3%) avg line: -12.6+6: 72-13-0 (84.7%) -6: 40-44-1 (47.6%) +10: 74-10-1 (88.1%) -10: 33-52-0 (38.8%)
O/U:44-41-0 (2.23, 51.8%) avg total: 59.8+6: 27-57-1 (32.1%) -6: 61-22-2 (73.5%) +10: 22-63-0 (25.9%) -10: 70-15-0 (82.4%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team41.9221.532.120.0260.61.510.511.310.18.240.8
Opp36.0125.734.719.3225.12.04.25.74.95.821.3
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 24, 2016Saturday172016MTENHAWaway




more in a bit
 

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OPPOSE 7-loss teams off a loss that won 6 or less last year (on ARMY) 0-1 ats
losses = 7 and p:L and site != home and season > 2009 and o:losses < 7 and p:margin < -3 and o:pRSW < 7
SU:2-31-0 (-21.55, 6.1%)Teaser Records
ATS:6-27-0 (-8.29, 18.2%) avg line: 13.3+6: 11-22-0 (33.3%) -6: 4-28-1 (12.5%) +10: 20-12-1 (62.5%) -10: 1-32-0 (3.0%)
O/U:13-19-1 (-1.29, 40.6%) avg total: 55.1+6: 10-23-0 (30.3%) -6: 18-15-0 (54.5%) +10: 6-27-0 (18.2%) -10: 22-10-1 (68.8%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team34.2117.233.417.8213.92.03.04.34.64.016.2
Opp43.0221.928.317.8247.41.110.710.49.56.937.7
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 27, 2016Tuesday182016NTXARMYneutral10.049.0

OPPOSE away/neut teams off a conf loss and b2b2b bad offensive games (on TEMP) 2-1-1 ats
p:CL and p:points < 18 and pp:points < 18 and ppp:points < 20 and (site = away or site = neutral) and line > -3 and p:line < 4.5
SU:10-105-0 (-17.89, 8.7%)Teaser Records
ATS:31-78-6 (-4.08, 28.4%) avg line: 13.8+6: 70-41-4 (63.1%) -6: 19-94-2 (16.8%) +10: 82-32-1 (71.9%) -10: 13-101-1 (11.4%)
O/U:16-18-1 (0.10, 47.1%) avg total: 48.6+6: 10-23-2 (30.3%) -6: 23-12-0 (65.7%) +10: 6-29-0 (17.1%) -10: 28-7-0 (80.0%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team35.1118.829.915.2182.82.34.14.73.74.913.8
Opp43.8209.229.816.6204.01.47.57.77.88.231.6
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 27, 2016Tuesday182016WAKETEMneutral13.040.5


OPPOSE teams after losing in 2+ OT not in b2b away games (on FSU) 0-0
p:overtime >= 2 and p:L and (A and p:A) = False and p:line > -10
SU:23-44-0 (-6.04, 34.3%)Teaser Records
ATS:20-45-0 (-5.56, 30.8%) avg line: 1.1+6: 28-34-3 (45.2%) -6: 15-50-0 (23.1%) +10: 37-27-1 (57.8%) -10: 11-53-1 (17.2%)
O/U:10-7-0 (1.56, 58.8%) avg total: 58.4+6: 7-10-0 (41.2%) -6: 13-4-0 (76.5%) +10: 3-13-1 (18.8%) -10: 15-2-0 (88.2%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team42.5183.234.020.5243.51.57.89.84.47.324.8
Opp34.8165.633.820.0257.02.16.18.66.99.030.9
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 30, 2016Friday182016MICHFLSTneutral-7.054.0


PLAY ON neutral teams that just won by 5+ and blowout win before that vs opponent that played in shootout (on APP, on PSU, on WKY) 24-13 ats
p:margin > 4 and pp:margin > 21 and op:points + opo:points > 71 and site = neutral
SU:39-20-0 (8.47, 66.1%)Teaser Records
ATS:42-17-0 (4.58, 71.2%) avg line: -3.9+6: 43-16-0 (72.9%) -6: 22-36-1 (37.9%) +10: 50-9-0 (84.7%) -10: 18-40-1 (31.0%)
O/U:17-16-0 (0.97, 51.5%) avg total: 65.7+6: 13-20-0 (39.4%) -6: 25-8-0 (75.8%) +10: 7-26-0 (21.2%) -10: 28-5-0 (84.8%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team41.4206.733.220.6274.01.78.611.48.79.434.6
Opp36.4155.835.821.2267.02.06.08.08.76.026.1
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Jan 02, 2017Monday182016PNSTUSCneutral6.562.00
Dec 20, 2016Tuesday172016WKYMEMneutral-5.079.00
Dec 17, 2016Saturday162016APPTOLneutral1.060.0

PLAY ON team off a dd dog win vs opponent that just had big scoring game but with bad defense (on NW, on AKST, on UTSA)
p:CW and p:margin >= 10 and op:points > 25 and opo:points > 30 and D and 13 > line > 5 and conference != P12 and o:ats streak > -4
SU:51-66-1 (-1.76, 43.6%)Teaser Records
ATS:86-30-2 (6.38, 74.1%) avg line: 8.1+6: 96-22-0 (81.4%) -6: 59-56-3 (51.3%) +10: 102-15-1 (87.2%) -10: 41-74-3 (35.7%)
O/U:35-33-0 (1.46, 51.5%) avg total: 59.8+6: 22-44-2 (33.3%) -6: 46-21-1 (68.7%) +10: 15-53-0 (22.1%) -10: 51-16-1 (76.1%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team37.8158.933.919.8252.01.56.28.56.08.428.2
Opp38.4176.533.120.9258.81.77.68.76.67.930.0
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 28, 2016Wednesday182016NORWPITneutral5.566.00
Dec 17, 2016Saturday162016AKSTCFLneutral6.049.50
Dec 17, 2016Saturday162016UTSANMXaway7.558.5

OPPOSE big dog with average record off a very tight conference win. (on MISS ST) 1-0 ats
p:CW and p:margin <= 3 and D and 10.5 < line < 33 and 44 < WP < 55 and season > 1996
SU:2-40-0 (-26.31, 4.8%)Teaser Records
ATS:7-35-0 (-8.04, 16.7%) avg line: 18.3+6: 19-23-0 (45.2%) -6: 5-36-1 (12.2%) +10: 24-18-0 (57.1%) -10: 4-38-0 (9.5%)
O/U:12-6-1 (7.95, 66.7%) avg total: 56.4+6: 10-9-0 (52.6%) -6: 14-5-0 (73.7%) +10: 6-13-0 (31.6%) -10: 16-2-1 (88.9%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team30.8106.934.019.9231.42.14.54.96.54.816.6
Opp43.6214.328.919.4257.61.39.314.210.59.643.0
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 26, 2016Monday172016MIAOMSSTneutral13.058.5



PLAY ON team off b2b 4+ TD wins vs opponent that just allowed 37+ (on IOWA) 6-3 ats
po:points > 36 and op:margin >= 28 and opp:margin >= 28 and p:ats margin < 17
SU:22-174-0 (-25.06, 11.2%)Teaser Records
ATS:62-131-2 (-4.08, 32.1%) avg line: 21.0+6: 103-88-4 (53.9%) -6: 47-144-4 (24.6%) +10: 124-69-2 (64.2%) -10: 35-158-2 (18.1%)
O/U:50-42-2 (2.77, 54.3%) avg total: 61.8+6: 37-57-0 (39.4%) -6: 63-31-0 (67.0%) +10: 30-64-0 (31.9%) -10: 73-21-0 (77.7%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team36.3124.135.019.4216.82.04.05.74.55.717.9
Opp40.1223.232.920.8284.51.512.113.810.48.242.9
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Jan 02, 2017Monday182016FLAIOWAneutral-2.540.5



PLAY ON small dogs with good rushing defense vs great rush team (on NW, on MEM, on LVILLE) just 2-3 ats in bowls
2 < line < 9.5 and D and otA(o:rushing yards) < 124.8 and op:rushing yards / op:rushes > 5.42 and season > 2010
SU:65-79-0 (-2.89, 45.1%)Teaser Records
ATS:93-46-5 (2.72, 66.9%) avg line: 5.6+6: 111-31-2 (78.2%) -6: 60-82-2 (42.3%) +10: 118-25-1 (82.5%) -10: 36-99-9 (26.7%)
O/U:63-78-3 (0.48, 44.7%) avg total: 54.6+6: 50-94-0 (34.7%) -6: 88-54-2 (62.0%) +10: 36-108-0 (25.0%) -10: 100-43-1 (69.9%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team36.6144.733.719.8232.71.55.16.56.47.726.1
Opp40.7181.431.418.6232.01.66.38.26.07.729.0
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 31, 2016Saturday182016LOULSUneutral3.560.00
Dec 28, 2016Wednesday182016NORWPITneutral5.566.00
Dec 20, 2016Tuesday172016MEMWKYneutral5.079.0



 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
58
Tokens
RollTide what about this one

Play the team with the better run defense(RD) and also run offense(RD)
Championship GMs and bowl GMs, no +14 or more dogs or TMS that have 3 or more loses than Oppnt and you have just 1 losing season since dbase tracked
Games
ATS
W - L- P (marg, %win)

Avg Line
OU
W - L- P (marg, %over)

Avg Total
SU
W - L- P (marg, %win)

SDQL
19
14-5-0 (9.21, 73.7%)
-1.5
13-6-0 (7.68, 68.4%)
58.5
15-4-0 (10.68, 78.9%)
season = 2015
21
15-6-0 (10.93, 71.4%)
-2.6
10-10-1 (-0.12, 50.0%)
60.3
15-6-0 (13.57, 71.4%)
season = 2014
11
5-6-0 (-0.09, 45.5%)
-0.6
4-7-0 (-3.77, 36.4%)
61.6
5-6-0 (0.55, 45.5%)
season = 2013
9
6-3-0 (4.39, 66.7%)
-6.6
5-3-1 (-3.00, 62.5%)
60.0
6-3-0 (11.00, 66.7%)
season = 2012
14
8-6-0 (-0.64, 57.1%)
-3.4
6-8-0 (-4.71, 42.9%)
54.8
8-6-0 (2.79, 57.1%)
season = 2011
13
7-6-0 (2.12, 53.8%)
-1.9
6-7-0 (-3.27, 46.2%)
55.6
8-5-0 (4.00, 61.5%)
season = 2010
17
9-7-1 (-0.82, 56.2%)
-0.8
9-8-0 (-1.97, 52.9%)
56.0
9-8-0 (-0.06, 52.9%)
season = 2009
17
10-7-0 (6.06, 58.8%)
-3.4
7-10-0 (-0.85, 41.2%)
55.7
14-3-0 (9.47, 82.4%)
season = 2008
10
7-3-0 (8.99, 70.0%)
-4.4
4-5-1 (1.50, 44.4%)
60.7
6-4-0 (13.40, 60.0%)
season = 2007
9
5-4-0 (1.11, 55.6%)
-3.3
3-6-0 (-3.00, 33.3%)
48.1
5-4-0 (4.44, 55.6%)
season = 2006
 

I'm from the government and I'm here to help
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
33,544
Tokens
Which 2016 Bowl teams have better RD and better RO?
Teamsonleft
season = 2016 and tA(rushing yards) > otA(rushing yards) and otA(o:rushing yards) > tA(o:rushing yards) and (game type = BG or game type = PO) and line < 7.5 and division = 1A and wins - o:wins < 3
SU:0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)Teaser Records
ATS:0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) avg line: None+6: 0-0-0 (0.0%) -6: 0-0-0 (0.0%) +10: 0-0-0 (0.0%) -10: 0-0-0 (0.0%)
O/U:0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%) avg total: None+6: 0-0-0 (0.0%) -6: 0-0-0 (0.0%) +10: 0-0-0 (0.0%) -10: 0-0-0 (0.0%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
TeamNoneNoneNoneNoneNoneNoneNoneNoneNoneNoneNone
OppNoneNoneNoneNoneNoneNoneNoneNoneNoneNoneNone
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Dec 17, 2016Saturday162016APPTOLneutral0.060.50
Dec 20, 2016Tuesday172016WKYMEMneutral-5.579.00
Dec 23, 2016Friday172016OLDDEMCHneutral-4.065.00
Dec 27, 2016Tuesday182016ARMYNTXneutral-10.049.00
Dec 28, 2016Wednesday182016PITNORWneutral-5.566.00
Dec 28, 2016Wednesday182016KASTTXAMneutral2.056.50
Dec 28, 2016Wednesday182016UTAHINDneutral-7.554.00
Dec 29, 2016Thursday182016COLOOKSTneutral-3.062.50
Dec 29, 2016Thursday182016VTCHARKneutral-7.061.50
Dec 30, 2016Friday182016MICHFLSTneutral-7.054.00
Dec 30, 2016Friday182016STANNCARneutral-3.553.50
Dec 31, 2016Saturday182016ALAWASneutral-14.554.00
Dec 31, 2016Saturday182016OHSTCLEMneutral-3.560.00
Dec 31, 2016Saturday182016GTCHKTKYneutral-3.561.50
Dec 31, 2016Saturday182016LOULSUneutral3.560.00
Jan 02, 2017Monday182016AUBOKLAneutral3.062.50
Jan 02, 2017Monday182016USCPNSTneutral-6.562.0



 

I'm from the government and I'm here to help
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
33,544
Tokens
in the rushing dog stuff there is a significant difference in ATS numbers by conference. historically these would be the ones to focus on

(o:conference = MWC or o:conference = B10 or o:conference = IND or o:conference = B12 or o:conference = MAC or o:conference = AAC) and tA(rushing yards) > otA(rushing yards) and otA(o:rushing yards) > tA(o:rushing yards) and (game type = BG or game type = PO) and line < 7.5 and division = 1A and wins - o:wins < 3
SU:49-11-0 (13.97, 81.7%)Teaser Records
ATS:49-11-0 (9.38, 81.7%) avg line: -4.6+6: 52-7-1 (88.1%) -6: 37-21-2 (63.8%) +10: 54-6-0 (90.0%) -10: 28-29-3 (49.1%)
O/U:29-30-1 (-0.82, 49.2%) avg total: 59.0+6: 20-38-2 (34.5%) -6: 43-17-0 (71.7%) +10: 14-46-0 (23.3%) -10: 45-14-1 (76.3%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team41.5202.428.317.9226.01.39.49.77.98.836.1
Opp32.4113.838.422.0247.51.85.05.74.46.622.1
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Jan 02, 2017Monday182016AUBOKLAneutral3.062.50
Jan 02, 2017Monday182016USCPNSTneutral-6.562.00
Dec 29, 2016Thursday182016COLOOKSTneutral-3.062.50
Dec 28, 2016Wednesday182016PITNORWneutral-5.566.00
Dec 28, 2016Wednesday182016UTAHINDneutral-7.554.00
Dec 23, 2016Friday172016OLDDEMCHneutral-4.065.00
Dec 20, 2016Tuesday172016WKYMEMneutral-5.579.00
Dec 17, 2016Saturday162016APPTOLneutral-1.060.5

 

I'm from the government and I'm here to help
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
33,544
Tokens
OPPOSE bowl teams with 5+ straight covers and >= layoff than opponent (on PSU, on IDAHO)
o:streak < 12 and game type = BG and Sum(ats margin > 0@team,N=5) >= 5 and rest >= o:rest
SU:17-35-0 (-8.42, 32.7%)Teaser Records
ATS:13-37-2 (-8.05, 26.0%) avg line: 0.4+6: 23-26-3 (46.9%)-6: 9-43-0 (17.3%)+10: 33-19-0 (63.5%)-10: 4-47-1 (7.8%)
O/U:9-7-1 (1.50, 56.2%) avg total: 55.4+6: 6-10-1 (37.5%)-6: 13-4-0 (76.5%)+10: 4-13-0 (23.5%)-10: 15-2-0 (88.2%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team33.0117.639.321.6247.92.54.46.85.28.023.1
Opp39.1170.132.419.0245.81.75.710.95.49.531.5
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Jan 02, 2017Monday182016USCPNSTneutral-6.562.00
Dec 22, 2016Thursday172016COSTIDAneutral-13.564.5

OPPOSE teams from current active conferences that have covered at least 5 of last 6, did not make their conference title game, and opponent not on big ats winning streak themselves (on PSU, on MISS ST, on SO MISS) also just 25% ATS if equal or longer layoff (PSU, MSU, IDA)
(game type = BG or game type = PO) and Sum(ats margin > 0@team,N=6) >= 5 and season > 1992 and (2 < o:ats streak < 7) = False and p:game type != CH
SU:40-78-0 (-5.64, 33.9%)Teaser Records
ATS:31-85-2 (-6.63, 26.7%) avg line: -1.0+6: 50-65-3 (43.5%)-6: 22-95-1 (18.8%)+10: 65-52-1 (55.6%)-10: 20-98-0 (16.9%)
O/U:26-32-1 (-2.54, 44.8%) avg total: 57.5+6: 16-42-1 (27.6%)-6: 34-25-0 (57.6%)+10: 14-45-0 (23.7%)-10: 40-19-0 (67.8%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team36.4138.535.520.0240.52.36.86.04.87.123.3
Opp37.5152.232.318.2224.41.56.28.46.28.728.9
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Jan 02, 2017Monday182016USCPNSTneutral-6.562.00
Dec 26, 2016Monday172016MIAOMSSTneutral13.058.50
Dec 22, 2016Thursday172016IDACOSTneutral13.564.50
Dec 22, 2016Thursday172016COSTIDAneutral-13.564.50
Dec 17, 2016Saturday162016LLAFSMISneutral6.558.5
 

I'm from the government and I'm here to help
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
33,544
Tokens
oppose streaking bowl teams vs opponent that could not score >20 last game (on barn,, on wake)
game type = BG and line < 2.5 and ats streak > 2 and op:points < 21 and op:margin > -31
SU:13-27-0 (-4.33, 32.5%)Teaser Records
ATS:4-36-0 (-8.84, 10.0%) avg line: -4.5+6: 18-22-0 (45.0%) -6: 1-39-0 (2.5%) +10: 23-17-0 (57.5%) -10: 1-39-0 (2.5%)
O/U:3-8-0 (-1.86, 27.3%) avg total: 53.6+6: 3-8-0 (27.3%) -6: 6-5-0 (54.5%) +10: 3-8-0 (27.3%) -10: 6-5-0 (54.5%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team33.6145.532.017.9229.92.27.88.75.33.222.9
Opp40.5162.030.517.2222.32.26.95.24.99.727.2
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Jan 02, 2017Monday182016OKLAAUBneutral-3.063.00
Dec 27, 2016Tuesday182016TEMWAKEneutral-11.541.0



 

I'm from the government and I'm here to help
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
33,544
Tokens
UNDER low total with very high scoring bowl fav or small dog.
(game type = BG) and tA(points) > 39.75 and line < 4 and total < 63.5 and date > 20080101
SU:13-6-0 (7.63, 68.4%)Teaser Records
ATS:10-9-0 (0.68, 52.6%) avg line: -6.9+6: 14-4-1 (77.8%) -6: 6-12-1 (33.3%) +10: 15-4-0 (78.9%) -10: 3-16-0 (15.8%)
O/U:0-19-0 (-13.84, 0.0%) avg total: 57.1+6: 0-19-0 (0.0%) -6: 2-16-1 (11.1%) +10: 0-19-0 (0.0%) -10: 8-10-1 (44.4%)
RushesRush YdsPassesCompPass YdsTOsQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Team36.4154.436.623.2261.91.76.56.65.46.925.4
Opp34.3110.933.516.5201.22.03.35.14.45.117.8
DateLinkDayWeekSeasonTeamOppSiteQ1Q2Q3Q4FinalLineTotalSUmATSmOUmDPSDPASUrATSrOUrot
Jan 02, 2017Monday182016OKLAAUBneutral-3.063.00
Dec 31, 2016Saturday182016LOULSUneutral3.059.50
Dec 30, 2016Friday182016MICHFLSTneutral-7.052.00
Dec 29, 2016Thursday182016SFLSCARneutral-10.561.0

 

New member
Joined
Oct 13, 2006
Messages
17,245
Tokens
RT, don't know if you ever catch Paul Finebaum but he's one of my favorites, the man can speak nothing but "how it is," lol. His spot on ESPN's First Take this a.m. was absolutely outrageous and cemented my love for the man. So if ya didn't catch it, find a way, maybe "on demand" or some other tape, and catch it. I was drinking some pretty damn good bubbly when he came on and I lost a full glass with one of his comments, the man is one of the best IMO. GL Saturday, Roll Tide!

~T~
 

Biz

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Oct 29, 2011
Messages
14,655
Tokens
under low total with very high scoring bowl fav or small dog.
(game type = bg) and ta(points) > 39.75 and line < 4 and total < 63.5 and date > 20080101
su:13-6-0 (7.63, 68.4%)teaser records
ats:10-9-0 (0.68, 52.6%) avg line: -6.9+6: 14-4-1 (77.8%)-6: 6-12-1 (33.3%)+10: 15-4-0 (78.9%)-10: 3-16-0 (15.8%)
o/u:0-19-0 (-13.84, 0.0%) avg total: 57.1+6: 0-19-0 (0.0%)-6: 2-16-1 (11.1%)+10: 0-19-0 (0.0%)-10: 8-10-1 (44.4%)
rushesrush ydspassescomppass ydstosq1q2q3q4final
team36.4154.436.623.2261.91.76.56.65.46.925.4
opp34.3110.933.516.5201.22.03.35.14.45.117.8
datelinkdayweekseasonteamoppsiteq1q2q3q4finallinetotalsumatsmoumdpsdpasuratsrourot
jan 02, 2017monday182016oklaaubneutral-3.063.00
dec 31, 2016saturday182016loulsuneutral3.059.50
dec 30, 2016friday182016michflstneutral-7.052.00
dec 29, 2016thursday182016sflscarneutral-10.561.0

this is incredible, and its 2-0 so far
 

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