AP does not have many races left in him. He goes to stud after this season. Baffert will get everything he can out of him since this is basically the end of the road for AP. There is some fairly decent competition around him, but no horse that is really good. Frosted is the "it" pick, which means I stay away from him. Materiality is the son of Afleet Alex and is trained by Todd Pletcher, who has owned Belmont this season, hitting at 50%. At decent odds, he is my exacta box play with AP.
hno: Looks like another small field for a TC Race as Carpe Diem and The Truth or Else exits......................probably around 8 horses.................Post draw very important for Pharoah as he does not want to be outside on that large first turn................
Be well all...............
Horses with 5 or greater Quirin Speed points are 0 for 23 in the Belmont since 2000. Pharoah has 7. ,,, Materiality has 5 points ...
Quirin Speed Points • Quirin Speed Points are always regarding the first call point of a race • We use the last 3 races unless one of those was run at a different distance, sprint or route, in which case we adhere to the rules below concerning route in today’s sprint race or sprint in today’s route race Each horse in a race will be credited with a certain number of “speed points” for each of 3 recent races. We start with the most recent race and work backward, never going back farther than 5 races in the horse’s record, to find 3 “ratable” races. The horse’s speed point total for these 3 races will represent a consensus of its recent ability to flash early speed at the distance it will be racing today, sprint or route. Each horse in the race starts with 1 speed point credited to its account. Sprints – up to 7 1/2 furlongs: speed points: • 1 point for any sprint in which the horse was 1st, 2nd, or 3rd at the first call, and/or (with an exception for 7F and 7 1/2F races) • 1 point for any sprint in which the horse led or was within 2 lengths of the lead at the first call • 0 points for any other sprint performance • 0 points for any route, unless the horse was within 1 length of the lead at the first call, in which case the race is passed over and not counted in the rated races, meaning we must go back to the prior qualifying race; the horse receives a bye for that race (At 7 and 7 1/2 furlongs, a horse is eligible for 2 points – see 2nd bullet - only if he led at the first call) So a horse may receive from 0 to 2 speed points for each of 3 races. For a sprint, only past sprints can contribute to the total – all route efforts receive either 0 points or a bye. For past races at 7 or 7 1/2 furlongs, a horse is eligible for 2 points only if it led at the first call. If the horse had been 2nd or 3rd, or within 2 lengths (or both) at the first call, it receives only 1 point. Award 1 bonus point to horses that led or raced within a neck of the lead at the first call of all 3 rated races, for a maximum total of 8. Any horse that receives only 1 speed point that was in the rear half of its field at the first call in each of its rated sprints must be penalized 1 point, giving it a new total of 0 points. Likewise for the horse with 1 speed point whose last 5 races were all routes, with none of the last 3 resulting in a bye. If the horse has been in the rear half of the field in the rated races, deduct the initial point for a 0 rating. Routes – 1 Mile and longer (procedure differs slightly): speed points: • 1 point for any route in which the horse was 1st, 2nd or 3rd at the first call, and/or • 1 point for any route in which the horse was within 3 lengths of the lead at the first call • 0 points for any other route performance • 1 point for any sprint in which the horse ran 1st, 2nd or 3rd or within 3 lengths of the lead at the first call, and/or • 1 point for any sprint in which the horse was within 6 lengths of the lead at the first call Any sprint in which the horse was neither 1st, 2nd or 3rd nor within 6 lengths of the lead at the first call is passed (given a bye), and we refer back to the next most recent race, never going back more than 5 races For Horses that have run only once or twice in their careers: Horses with only 1 or 2 races lifetime must be given special consideration – their speed point total must be “projected” over 3 races. The table below indicates how to make such projections. Career starts are indicated in the left-hand column, and speed points earned in that many starts are listed across the top of the table. “Projected” speed points (in addition to the one point all horses start with) are found in the body of the table. 0 1 2 3 4 1 start 2 starts 0 0 3 1 5 3 x 4 x 5
Most of my exotics , I have AP and Materiality in the 4th position ... and 5th position ...
Good luck guys ...
Quirin Speed Points • Quirin Speed Points are always regarding the first call point of a race • We use the last 3 races unless one of those was run at a different distance, sprint or route, in which case we adhere to the rules below concerning route in today’s sprint race or sprint in today’s route race Each horse in a race will be credited with a certain number of “speed points” for each of 3 recent races. We start with the most recent race and work backward, never going back farther than 5 races in the horse’s record, to find 3 “ratable” races. The horse’s speed point total for these 3 races will represent a consensus of its recent ability to flash early speed at the distance it will be racing today, sprint or route. Each horse in the race starts with 1 speed point credited to its account. Sprints – up to 7 1/2 furlongs: speed points: • 1 point for any sprint in which the horse was 1st, 2nd, or 3rd at the first call, and/or (with an exception for 7F and 7 1/2F races) • 1 point for any sprint in which the horse led or was within 2 lengths of the lead at the first call • 0 points for any other sprint performance • 0 points for any route, unless the horse was within 1 length of the lead at the first call, in which case the race is passed over and not counted in the rated races, meaning we must go back to the prior qualifying race; the horse receives a bye for that race (At 7 and 7 1/2 furlongs, a horse is eligible for 2 points – see 2nd bullet - only if he led at the first call) So a horse may receive from 0 to 2 speed points for each of 3 races. For a sprint, only past sprints can contribute to the total – all route efforts receive either 0 points or a bye. For past races at 7 or 7 1/2 furlongs, a horse is eligible for 2 points only if it led at the first call. If the horse had been 2nd or 3rd, or within 2 lengths (or both) at the first call, it receives only 1 point. Award 1 bonus point to horses that led or raced within a neck of the lead at the first call of all 3 rated races, for a maximum total of 8. Any horse that receives only 1 speed point that was in the rear half of its field at the first call in each of its rated sprints must be penalized 1 point, giving it a new total of 0 points. Likewise for the horse with 1 speed point whose last 5 races were all routes, with none of the last 3 resulting in a bye. If the horse has been in the rear half of the field in the rated races, deduct the initial point for a 0 rating. Routes – 1 Mile and longer (procedure differs slightly): speed points: • 1 point for any route in which the horse was 1st, 2nd or 3rd at the first call, and/or • 1 point for any route in which the horse was within 3 lengths of the lead at the first call • 0 points for any other route performance • 1 point for any sprint in which the horse ran 1st, 2nd or 3rd or within 3 lengths of the lead at the first call, and/or • 1 point for any sprint in which the horse was within 6 lengths of the lead at the first call Any sprint in which the horse was neither 1st, 2nd or 3rd nor within 6 lengths of the lead at the first call is passed (given a bye), and we refer back to the next most recent race, never going back more than 5 races For Horses that have run only once or twice in their careers: Horses with only 1 or 2 races lifetime must be given special consideration – their speed point total must be “projected” over 3 races. The table below indicates how to make such projections. Career starts are indicated in the left-hand column, and speed points earned in that many starts are listed across the top of the table. “Projected” speed points (in addition to the one point all horses start with) are found in the body of the table. 0 1 2 3 4 1 start 2 starts 0 0 3 1 5 3 x 4 x 5
Most of my exotics , I have AP and Materiality in the 4th position ... and 5th position ...
Good luck guys ...
:think2:
With the mention of the Super 5 by Kaboom ( is the Belmont definitely having that wager, sometimes these tracks don't have it and sometimes they do.....the Preakness didn't this year ) ..............you got me thinking..........don’t know about the Super 5,.......... but for the superfecta..........
Let’s go back and look at the $ 1 superfecta payouts for the last 10 years........
2014----- 3808/5728 ( dead heat 4th )
2013----- 10301
2012----- 953
2011----- 37020
2010----- 5329
2009----- 852
2008----- 24318
2007----- 242
2006----- 1085
2005----- 7109
And with this year’s Belmont set for possibly a 8 horse field, if one was itching to take every combo possible in the ‘super’ and box all 8 horses............it would cost $ 1680............
Then you just sit back, and watch , and hope that Pharoah ( or another favorite ) doesn’t win or better yet hit the board...........
Could be some big cash to be made and ‘no handicapping skills’ required.
But then, that wouldn’t be fun, would it...............
Best to all..............be well...and will have my selections in a few days...........
With the mention of the Super 5 by Kaboom ( is the Belmont definitely having that wager, sometimes these tracks don't have it and sometimes they do.....the Preakness didn't this year ) ..............you got me thinking..........don’t know about the Super 5,.......... but for the superfecta..........
Let’s go back and look at the $ 1 superfecta payouts for the last 10 years........
2014----- 3808/5728 ( dead heat 4th )
2013----- 10301
2012----- 953
2011----- 37020
2010----- 5329
2009----- 852
2008----- 24318
2007----- 242
2006----- 1085
2005----- 7109
And with this year’s Belmont set for possibly a 8 horse field, if one was itching to take every combo possible in the ‘super’ and box all 8 horses............it would cost $ 1680............
Then you just sit back, and watch , and hope that Pharoah ( or another favorite ) doesn’t win or better yet hit the board...........
Could be some big cash to be made and ‘no handicapping skills’ required.
But then, that wouldn’t be fun, would it...............
Best to all..............be well...and will have my selections in a few days...........
With the small field I see the value in the super playing AP in 3rd and 4th, but I honestly think good chance he hits second. Don't have him on top. Pletcher has at least one who will place. I'm going heavy with MFL, Materiality and ALL in first and second and keying AP under in all combinations in the super. Between Pletcher's record in Belmont and his pilots aboard very likely win or place between those two. Cost won't get too high with 8 horse field.
AP is the winner. Everything broke his way. A small field. The #5 starting position. The weather with a decent chance of rain. You guys who are wagering on AP to finish 4th or worse are just throwing your money away. You may as well buy a lottery ticket or play the slots. I do not see one realistic post in here. You have one chance and one chance only, and that is something happens to AP during the race. If he does not break down, AP is the winner. Wire to wire.
