Thanks, Tony - I'll sure do my best! With three weeks of info now in the book, I will only feel stronger about my plays going forward. However, I AM a realist - 72% will be nearly impossible to maintain over the entire season. Of course, I will continue to do my best and post all of my qualifying plays. There should also be some larger wager plays on the way as well (wagers to win $150, $200, or more).
I will be back with tonight's play later on.
I will be back with tonight's play later on.
Line movement and betting numbers have made tonight's play much closer than it was just 24 hours ago. Play should be up in 15 minutes - sorry for the delay.
Quick thoughts:
-KC backers preaching 10 days rest, Reid's MNF win %, "sharp" money
-GB backers preaching Rodgers doesn't throw picks at home, Rodgers > Smith, Rodgers is money at home
You can convince yourself that anything is true if you say it with confidence. Forget the storyline - Trust your process.
Quick thoughts:
-KC backers preaching 10 days rest, Reid's MNF win %, "sharp" money
-GB backers preaching Rodgers doesn't throw picks at home, Rodgers > Smith, Rodgers is money at home
You can convince yourself that anything is true if you say it with confidence. Forget the storyline - Trust your process.
Green Bay -5 (-110) - $110 to win $100
Hopefully you can get this at 4 or 4.5, but I don't think it will matter (unless these longer XPs come into play). At the end of the day, my numbers still had Green Bay as the pick - albeit at a much lower confidence level than they did yesterday. Have to trust my method, though, and GB still qualified as a pick.
As for my personal thoughts, numbers aside, I believe Green Bay's defense is up to the task of doing enough to stop KC's passing attack - which will have to do some damage to keep up with Rodgers and company. Plus, KC has just played two games down to the wire, the last of which against their prime division competition. I know they just had 10 days rest, but is the locker room really up to the task to go toe-to-toe with the Pack in Lambeau after losing a heartbreaker to the Broncos?
Good luck to all tonight - thank you for reading.
Hopefully you can get this at 4 or 4.5, but I don't think it will matter (unless these longer XPs come into play). At the end of the day, my numbers still had Green Bay as the pick - albeit at a much lower confidence level than they did yesterday. Have to trust my method, though, and GB still qualified as a pick.
As for my personal thoughts, numbers aside, I believe Green Bay's defense is up to the task of doing enough to stop KC's passing attack - which will have to do some damage to keep up with Rodgers and company. Plus, KC has just played two games down to the wire, the last of which against their prime division competition. I know they just had 10 days rest, but is the locker room really up to the task to go toe-to-toe with the Pack in Lambeau after losing a heartbreaker to the Broncos?
Good luck to all tonight - thank you for reading.
Have a lean for tonight, not sure if it'll become an official play. I tend to shy away from games where a team is playing without its qb for the first time in a season - especially a division game on a Thursday. Too many factors that muddle up the outcome in my opinion.
Anybody have any thoughts?
Anybody have any thoughts?
T&J, there are so many factors playing into this game. I honestly think Baltimore is ready to throw in the towel after last week's heartbreaking loss. Vick is a veteran who knows how to win at this point - and may have the most talented skill players around him that he's ever had. The short week throws a wrench into everything, though. You can probably guess that my lean is towards Pittsburgh - I just don't know how long fading Baltimore can possibly be profitable.
