My record is very good. If you want to PM me I'll send you link to where my picks are tracked. I post 90% of my picks privately.
I have an explanation for everything in the 1st post for the numbers on the spreadsheet.
Good—Played as they were projected to do in the game.
Bad—Played below expectations for the game.
Good just means that the team played well enough to cover the number in the game according to the stats I use. Bad is the opposite.
Play= team didn't cover the spread but played well enough, in my opinion, to cover the spread and should be looked at the following week.
Fade is opposite of play. They covered the spread but they didn't dominate the opponent.
I don't automatically play a team the next week because of anything. I wouldn't suggest anyone do that. I take everything into consideration. I'd prefer a team to have a good box score the week before but it doesn't stop me from making a pick either.
Here's what I mean. If a team has a horrible box score the week before but the number isn't right. I'm not automatically playing against the team that had the horrible box score. The line may not justify a play.
I look at that and would try to make an argument for/against a good/bad box but it's nothing that I just do because my program spits it out.
I trust my number on a game. That's 1st. After that I'm looking to use these good/bad/play/fade box score results. I'm trying to match up a play where I like my number vs the odds and I like last week's box for or against the team I'm playing on or against. Then I'm looking into injuries, scheduling quirks, etc....
hope that explains it.
