There are no systems that work. If they did, you would never see them. The only systems that work are Billy Walters and he's not giving them out (watch you tube if u don't believe me). If you can manipulate the line you want, then you have the only system that works. Take the systems like Ken Pom and let them narrow it down for you, and cap them yourself and pick the ones that fit. otherwise you are throwing your money in a hole. If you don't have the time to cap or don't know how than just bet 8% of your bankroll on the free service picks. Go with someone you like or has a good rep. Just my opinion. If you really want a system that works and you have the nuts and the bankroll to play it, then find a progressive system (they are everywhere) John Morrison (not his real name) etc... and play them. They actually have good results but you'll lay 320 to win 100 and if you play a "C" wager and lose you will lose everything you gained. To put this into perspective if you can hit 55% you would be among the best handicappers in the world, meaning you go 55-45 on a 100 wagers and end up with a net profit of $550 because you win $5500 and lose $4950, the difference between a $500 loss and a $550 dollar profit is a $1,050 which is the difference between being a 50% capper and a 55% capper. You need to hit 52.38% to break even. If you hit 57.38% you are a 55% capper.
I can't take credit for the stats above, they come from allen moody (look him up, he knows his shit)
I can't take credit for the stats above, they come from allen moody (look him up, he knows his shit)
I respectfully disagree about systems not working. As for progressive systems, the ROI is awful. If you hit a few losers, you have to wager a lot to win a little. I have been a system/angle player for the past several years, and have developed many winning systems.
There are many ways to pick winners. We have many excellent handicappers on this site: Willie, Baller, Lt Danz, Biggz, Action to name a few. I have no idea how they come up with plays, but I know they are winning players based on what they post.
I have shared some of my systems on this board from time to time. They key is to find systems that have a long term positive ROI. Systems that make sense. I see many ridiculous systems in the Service Plays thread......" When playing against a team that shoots 31-33% on 3 pointers, commits 7-9 TOs a game, and plays on Wednesdays in February, Team A is 17-4 since 1996." Really??
Saying there are no winning systems is incorrect. I treat my systems like a stock portfolio, Each system is a stock. Some perform better than others, some lose value from year to year, others increase in value. At the end of the season, the value of my portfolio is dependent on how my systems performed. If I have systems that show a track record of being successful, then my portfolio will show a profit at the end of the year.
Having a stable of systems that have shown a consistent profit for several years gives me the confidence to make my plays. I can mentally sustain losing streaks, because I know that it will even out and show a profit at the end of the year. For those that believe in the KenPom system, and have used it in a winning fashion the past several years, should continue to do so. You don't quit on a profitable system because its on a losing streak. Best of luck to those of you following this thread.
I don't want to derail this thread too much, maybe its too late, but I will have a baseball thread this year using angles that I have borrowed from others and developed myself. They have been profitable over the past 6 years and I hope to share those picks this year and help people make a few bucks. More details in that forum as the season gets closer.
To answer the requests a couple of you have made about a baseball angle, I'll give one of the easier ones to find:
Play ON a Home Dog (Win percentage of > 51%) VS a Team with a Win Percentage of > 60%.
We are playing on a good team, one that wins at least 51% of their games, against a really good team, one that wins at least 60%. Good teams beat really good teams, when we get plus money at home we will play them. You will find around 30-35 plays a year. Last 6 years:
2013: 17-10 (8.9 units)
2012: 24-16 (12.3 units)
2011: 16-21 (-2.1 units)
2010: 24-18 (11.8 units)
2009: 22-15 (11.2 units)
2008: 21-12 (12 units)
There is a great book called "Betting The Bases" by Mike Lee, you can find it if you look around. Highly recommended for anyone interested in betting baseball.
Back to hoops. Any more baseball questions PM me as I have clogged this thread enough with another sport.
To answer the requests a couple of you have made about a baseball angle, I'll give one of the easier ones to find:
Play ON a Home Dog (Win percentage of > 51%) VS a Team with a Win Percentage of > 60%.
We are playing on a good team, one that wins at least 51% of their games, against a really good team, one that wins at least 60%. Good teams beat really good teams, when we get plus money at home we will play them. You will find around 30-35 plays a year. Last 6 years:
2013: 17-10 (8.9 units)
2012: 24-16 (12.3 units)
2011: 16-21 (-2.1 units)
2010: 24-18 (11.8 units)
2009: 22-15 (11.2 units)
2008: 21-12 (12 units)
There is a great book called "Betting The Bases" by Mike Lee, you can find it if you look around. Highly recommended for anyone interested in betting baseball.
Back to hoops. Any more baseball questions PM me as I have clogged this thread enough with another sport.
Portland St was not made official by Ryno so does not count for record but I played it at +7 and they won SU. Two close but not official plays for tomorrow are Ill-Chicago +7.5 and Loyola Chicago +7.5....they should be double digit dogs to fit system. Maybe if candylicker like them will play.
