By J. Keeler Johnson
In an effort to make some sense out of this often inscrutable race, I have compiled a list of a five Belmont Stakes-winning trends that have shown up repeatedly over the past several years. These are only trends, of course, and it certainly wouldn’t be surprising if the winner of the Belmont were to defy several, if not all, of the following observations. But in any case, I find these trends useful to keep in mind when handicapping the Belmont, as they have proven helpful in identifying longshot contenders I might otherwise have overlooked.
1. Deep closers [generally] don’t win the Belmont
2. Non-stakes winners are welcome
Believe it or not, six of the last eight Belmont Stakes winners (Jazil, Da’ Tara, Summer Bird, Drosselmeyer, Ruler On Ice, and Palace Malice) had never won a stakes race prior to their victory in the Test of Champions.
3. Horses that lose the Derby and skip the Preakness have had great success in the Belmon
4. Dosage is worth a look
5. Expect the unexpected
. This trend has been particularly noteworthy since 2008, as five of the last six Belmont winners went off at higher than 10-1. So if the horse you like in the Belmont is being overlooked in the betting, don’t be concerned—consider it a good thing !
Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/unlo...five-belmont-stakes-trends.aspx#ixzz33gOP5GHs
In an effort to make some sense out of this often inscrutable race, I have compiled a list of a five Belmont Stakes-winning trends that have shown up repeatedly over the past several years. These are only trends, of course, and it certainly wouldn’t be surprising if the winner of the Belmont were to defy several, if not all, of the following observations. But in any case, I find these trends useful to keep in mind when handicapping the Belmont, as they have proven helpful in identifying longshot contenders I might otherwise have overlooked.
1. Deep closers [generally] don’t win the Belmont
2. Non-stakes winners are welcome
Believe it or not, six of the last eight Belmont Stakes winners (Jazil, Da’ Tara, Summer Bird, Drosselmeyer, Ruler On Ice, and Palace Malice) had never won a stakes race prior to their victory in the Test of Champions.
3. Horses that lose the Derby and skip the Preakness have had great success in the Belmon
5. Expect the unexpected
. This trend has been particularly noteworthy since 2008, as five of the last six Belmont winners went off at higher than 10-1. So if the horse you like in the Belmont is being overlooked in the betting, don’t be concerned—consider it a good thing !
Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/unlo...five-belmont-stakes-trends.aspx#ixzz33gOP5GHs
kbrod66,
I think it will hurt him ................................although I don't see much speed on either side of him that can screw him up at the start...............................if he gets bumped around and has a poor start, and gets some dirt thrown in his face, look out.......................then he will back off...................... just starting to get a Bad Feeling for his chances....................think there are going to be some connections that are going to try and box him
On another note, I just found out, that there is a thing called the Daily Racing Form, which lists " news and past performances" and stuff..................wow........ wish I would have known about this 50 years ago...........
On another , another note.....................be well and let's cash some tickets on this one...............will have my selections come Friday...........
Post #2 is actually a good post for the fastest horse in this field. It won't hurt him one bit & I'm pretty sure Chromeo wires this field & wins by more than 5 lengths!
TCG,
I know you have been all over Crome since before the Derby, so just want to say Congrats to you on picking this colt............................as to the TC, as a horse racing fan, if he wins this that will be fantastic , as I've seen a number of TC winners in my life and will like to see another one join the group..............
But, as a " gambler ' of sorts, would love to see a superfecta , without Chrome hitting the board, and see the numbers flashing ..............
We will know in a few days..................best to you, as always...........
Thanks 11, good luck to you as well, & if Chrome doesn't hit the board, you will need a suitcase to carry your money out of the track hitting that superfecta.
:think2: OK, here is what I and my group plan on playing tomorrow......................
1st Tier ( Top Win candidates )
----- #9 Wicked Strong...................liked him in the Derby and like him here
----- #2 California Chrome.............. for history
2nd Tier ( Strong In The Money Candidates )
----- #1 Medal Count............................needs a good dirt race sometime
----- #4 Commanding Curve.................should be running in the end
----- #7 Samratt............................have not heard much about him this week
----- #10 General A Rod.....................have to have slow fractions to stay up there
Will be taking these 6 horses and boxing, keying and such in all of the exotics ( perfectas, tris, supers ) ............................will be also playing a Superfecta box with 1,4,5,7,9,10,11 .............No Chrome allowed in this one...............
Best to you all..............................may you all cash some tickets tomorrow, and as always be well................
1st Tier ( Top Win candidates )
----- #9 Wicked Strong...................liked him in the Derby and like him here
----- #2 California Chrome.............. for history
2nd Tier ( Strong In The Money Candidates )
----- #1 Medal Count............................needs a good dirt race sometime
----- #4 Commanding Curve.................should be running in the end
----- #7 Samratt............................have not heard much about him this week
----- #10 General A Rod.....................have to have slow fractions to stay up there
Will be taking these 6 horses and boxing, keying and such in all of the exotics ( perfectas, tris, supers ) ............................will be also playing a Superfecta box with 1,4,5,7,9,10,11 .............No Chrome allowed in this one...............
Best to you all..............................may you all cash some tickets tomorrow, and as always be well................
c ya next year 11
