2010 mlb capping & betting #102 - daily key info plus q&a

[cigar]

the era cats on baltimore are a p instead of an m in todays pdws

hv that is

 

[pops69]

i prob fat fingered that one. it was so large that my macro didnt have a spot to put it in

tks

yep, below is what they show be

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 144pt;" width="192" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64" span="3"><tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt; width: 48pt;" width="64" height="20">HVEM5</td> <td class="xl95" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">HVAM5</td> <td class="xl95" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">HVWM5</td> </tr></tbody></table>
susp to see that number being bet down from the ol but numbers indicate it's about right for 87% on nyy

also need to adj the numbers for was ol but the number is have as the open is dead as wrong. did anyone pick up a true open?

 

[ILMW]

pops just a note that the 21-1 NL under system in play today for both Philly n Dodger games ... no significant umps in either.

question for you. I did not jump on waldo for SD/NYM when lines came out last night and see they moved 10 points overnight toward the under, away from waldo. Given the waldo last night couldn't have put that game over if they played twice do you ever consider just skipping a waldo or even opposing a waldo when it doesn't look like the stars are aligned, or just play it blindly?

Roll can you share this system or if not on the boards can you send it to me via private message, thanks.

 

[pops69]

Roll can you share this system or if not on the boards can you send it to me via private message, thanks.

it's in my spreadsheets, plus we have talked about it a while back with respect to pitchers home and away era's and o/u number as well

 

[sportsman]

ok, I now understand how all the Zens and Waldo's work, what do the "Home/Vis FA or OY field" mean?

and the codes (example- HVEP3, ect) under the titles H & A ERA Diff Avg ERA Diff WHIP Diff

mean?

 

[rolltide]

FA means that pitcher will be a free agent and OY means the pitcher is in an option year

ILMW just go a week or so back and you will find it posted. under NL with total of 6.5 or lower when combined era is <4.98

don't need to worry about waldo over in metski match as it has been rained out. doubleheader tomorrow

 

[pops69]

ok, I now understand how all the Zens and Waldo's work, what do the "Home/Vis FA or OY field" mean?

and the codes (example- HVEP3, ect) under the titles H & A ERA Diff Avg ERA Diff WHIP Diff

mean?

you cant do measurements using exact numbers so i use buckets the HVE and HVA 1-6 and just the
buckets for the Starting Pitchers Home and Visitor (HV) E is ERA Diff and A is ERA Avg Diff than the P or M is weather the home is Plus or Minus the visiting pitcher and the last number is the bucket i have set up for those values (which anyone can just put there own in the master and run the macro and get there buckets

 

[sportsman]

you cant do measurements using exact numbers so i use buckets the HVE and HVA 1-6 and just the
buckets for the Starting Pitchers Home and Visitor (HV) E is ERA Diff and A is ERA Avg Diff than the P or M is weather the home is Plus or Minus the visiting pitcher and the last number is the bucket i have set up for those values (which anyone can just put there own in the master and run the macro and get there buckets

ok i think I get it, so according to those 3 field, Brewers and Red Sox are solid plays, (thats if the numbers at the end 1-6 means 1 is the closest and 6 is the most difference between the teams)

 

[pops69]

ok i think I get it, so according to those 3 field, Brewers and Red Sox are solid plays, (thats if the numbers at the end 1-6 means 1 is the closest and 6 is the most difference between the teams)

the biggest miss match on wednesday pdws is nyy vs o's

the master should be used for analysis of what if's vs using any of those buckets to project daily games. it's for finding areas of opportunity

 

[pops69]

wednesday recap

waldo's 0-1
zen 2-1

back in a few with today data and info

 

[pops69]

thursday june 10th

today's pdws below.

two zen plays

could be some changes because of the two ppd yesterday. will advise

no new master until tomorrow

p.s. i removed the 3 sets of bucket numbers as i believe some were not using it for a daily analysis vs bucket analysis

 

[ILMW]

wednesday recap

waldo's 0-1
zen 2-1

back in a few with today data and info

Pops the ZEN 4 is that the first or 2nd game due to double header, thanks.

 

[jacksonjohn]

Zen 4 play is on the Garland/Niese game of the DH, right?

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[jacksonjohn]

Yesterday: 0-2
YTD: 16-15
ALP: -1.01

Today:

Cubs +1.15
Oak -1.10



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[madsigner]

thursday june 10th

today's pdws below.


p.s. i removed the 3 sets of bucket numbers as i believe some were not using it for a daily analysis vs bucket analysis

pops, are you reffering to the 3 columns to the far right (hvem etc)? if so, is there a simple way i can add/calc them on my own?

 

[pops69]

pops, are you reffering to the 3 columns to the far right (hvem etc)? if so, is there a simple way i can add/calc them on my own?

here they are, but as i said it's for a bucket analysis using pivot tables more than anything else

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 144pt;" width="192" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 48pt;" width="64" span="3"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt; width: 48pt;" width="64" height="20">HVEP5</td> <td class="xl95" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">HVAP5</td> <td class="xl95" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">HVWP5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">HVEP1</td> <td class="xl95">HVAM1</td> <td class="xl95">HVWM5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">HVEM2</td> <td class="xl95">HVAM2</td> <td class="xl95">HVWM5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">HVEM5</td> <td class="xl95">HVAM4</td> <td class="xl95">HVWM3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">HVEM2</td> <td class="xl95">HVAM2</td> <td class="xl95">HVWM5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">HVEP5</td> <td class="xl95">HVAP5</td> <td class="xl95">HVWP5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">HVEP1</td> <td class="xl95">HVAM1</td> <td class="xl95">HVWP5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">HVEP5</td> <td class="xl95">HVAP4</td> <td class="xl95">HVWP5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">HVEP1</td> <td class="xl95">HVAP1</td> <td class="xl95">HVWP1</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">HVEM3</td> <td class="xl95">HVAM2</td> <td class="xl95">HVWM3</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">HVEP1</td> <td class="xl95">HVAM1</td> <td class="xl95">HVWP2</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">HVEM3</td> <td class="xl95">HVAM2</td> <td class="xl95">HVWM5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">HVEP5</td> <td class="xl95">HVAP5</td> <td class="xl95">HVWP5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl95" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">HVEM2</td> <td class="xl95">HVAM2</td> <td class="xl95">HVWM2</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

 

[pops69]

Pops the ZEN 4 is that the first or 2nd game due to double header, thanks.

yes. game 2. doing game 1 now. will advise if anything from that one

 

[pops69]

mets 1st game same numbers from yesterdays pdws that already on the thread. so no zen on it

 

[sportsman]

the Zen 4 is on the first mets game which is santana/latos?

the pitchers listed in the file are garland/niese

p.s. I was also a fan of the last 3 columns, anyway to keep them on? I am not sure what you mean "bucket analysis using pivots" but I did understand how to use them as is.

 

[pops69]

the Zen 4 is on the first mets game which is santana/latos?

the pitchers listed in the file are garland/niese

p.s. I was also a fan of the last 3 columns, anyway to keep them on? I am not sure what you mean "bucket analysis using pivots" but I did understand how to use them as is.

i put the numbers up in a previous thread and will put them on the pdws again tomorrow (they are in the master and anyone can get them there but just putting the new games in a running the macro

but all of the CAT or Buckets i use are for pivot analysis

eg. let say two pitcher have home and away era's of the following

home 2.51 and vis is 2.50 so the diff would be .01. and two other pitchers have a 2.52 and 2.50 so the diff would be .02 and on and on and on. so there is no way that you can do any analysis of these past game using the exact values of the differences etc. just way to many descrete end points. so i lump these a various bucket (or CAT ranges) all of those ranges are lised in the master under the CAT Tab and any of them can be change to what every you feel those ranges should be and than just run the macro (they are in the master) and you have the results based on what you feel is right