2010 mlb capping & betting #102 - daily key info plus q&a

[CTP]

What ever you do one must keep the bull pen included. One sees so many times the starter comes out winning and lose by 4.

Could you add a col for home teams winning percentage home along with visiting teams winning percentage on the road. It was quite useful last year. I have the formula in my database but others may find it useful.

You can skip the first inning stuff just plain did not work

 

[twjd]

after further review i'm not going to add any batting stats

it's all about cause and effect. and i have all the effects for everything i mentioned above already in the spreadsheet. its called scoring. what do i give a shit about how many doubles triples or hr a team has. it's all about the scoring and pitching. pitching trumps hitting every day of the week. almost everyone in the show can hit, that's why they are there. dont want to spend my time looking at the details vs the outcome

plus, i doubt that anyone has any data which can show how the cause has anything to do with the effect

May have to disagree some what. Baseball is about all fundamentals, pitching, fielding, hitting, coaching and external factors like weather and umpires. Poor hitting teams can make bad pitchers look good, just as good hitting teams can make good pitchers look bad.

 

[oilbarrel]

15d's is a bust as a handful of times the team is away for longer than that. the rest of them all pretty much sucked as well. the best one (which is like talking about the tallest midget) was 45d

fyi i used scoring avg's and matched that up against total runs scored for the game

 

[pops69]

thursday march 18th

morning from homeland

everyone should be watching hoops today so it will be very quiet here

i'll check for old news

 

[pops69]

its an interesting idea- i generally get my info from the pivots, but am always up for different ways to view the data. Do you have a format type in mind?

i'll work on one today. i live by the pivots myself but that worked very well in cbb as you have everything in one place but that was conf and non conf

 

[pops69]

What ever you do one must keep the bull pen included. One sees so many times the starter comes out winning and lose by 4.

Could you add a col for home teams winning percentage home along with visiting teams winning percentage on the road. It was quite useful last year. I have the formula in my database but others may find it useful.

You can skip the first inning stuff just plain did not work

never one to say i told you so. no guts no glory

 

[pops69]

May have to disagree some what. Baseball is about all fundamentals, pitching, fielding, hitting, coaching and external factors like weather and umpires. Poor hitting teams can make bad pitchers look good, just as good hitting teams can make good pitchers look bad.

i agree with this 100%. what i'm saying is that details on team batting will not help in the spreadsheets.

 

[pops69]

15d's is a bust as a handful of times the team is away for longer than that. the rest of them all pretty much sucked as well. the best one (which is like talking about the tallest midget) was 45d

fyi i used scoring avg's and matched that up against total runs scored for the game

we'll go with 45 than and done with it

tks

i'll send you a 2010 soon as ready and u can make the change or just tell me what to change

 

[CTP]

Can't say this will help anyone but here it is anyway. Concerns NCAA tourny. Got a BS letter from one of the books with stats on covers and straight up wins. These are based on seed vs seed.

SEED STRAIGHT-UP AGST SPREAD
1 VS 16 19-0 9-9-1
2 VS 15 20-0 9-11-0
3 VS 14 22-2 15-9-0
4 VS 13 18-5 13-11-0
5 VS 12 13-11 12-12-0
6 VS 11 17-7 14-10-0
7 VS 10 16-8 16-8-0
8 VS 9 12-12 10-12-2

I was trying to find something for M/L but nothing popped up. Only tier worth looking into is 7 vs 10 but last year that tanked. That seed by year goes like this.
2009 1-3
2008 3-1
2007 4-0
2006 2-2
2005 3-1
2004 3-1

 

[jacksonjohn]

Public is 75% on both Baylor and N. Dame, yet lines are falling like a rock.

Thoughts?
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[pops69]

Public is 75% on both Baylor and N. Dame, yet lines are falling like a rock.

Thoughts?
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jj, i dont have any stats to back this up, but i would not be on baylor or nd

 

[joelatti]

Agree on baylor, BUT ND -2 is what i played on tues and now I see Solid -3 so that line has risen back up...Also CAA is an OK conf...I think ND wins this game

 

[pops69]

Agree on baylor, BUT ND -2 is what i played on tues and now I see Solid -3 so that line has risen back up...Also CAA is an OK conf...I think ND wins this game

joe, nd closed -2- and did get bet down from the open

byu dodged a bullet, have them to the final 8

 

[pops69]

Public is 75% on both Baylor and N. Dame, yet lines are falling like a rock.

Thoughts?
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nice find jj. way to keep your eyes open

 

[pops69]

friday march 19th - day 2

morning all

lost one of my 16 teams. marq down in flames

thompson should have been fired on the spot as they didnt have a clue on how to stop the rabits

 

[twjd]

friday march 19th - day 2

morning all

lost one of my 16 teams. marq down in flames

thompson should have been fired on the spot as they didnt have a clue on how to stop the rabits

My dumb ass made a second half bet on Georgetown, Big east looking very bad.

 

[pops69]

My dumb ass made a second half bet on Georgetown, Big east looking very bad.

based on performance of b east and the fav yesterday i would expect the lines to get all bet down on them, esp b e

 

[Atlanta1978]

In most cases I would have went with Nova and Gtown in the 2nd half being double digit favs but I have totally faded that thinking in the tournemant because there really isnt any home court advantage in most cases and plus the competition is alot better. Each of these mid major teams are darn near champions of their respective league via tourny or regular season. And when books wanna give 11, 12 or more points in your favor thats hard to turn down.

GL today

 

[pops69]

In most cases I would have went with Nova and Gtown in the 2nd half being double digit favs but I have totally faded that thinking in the tournemant because there really isnt any home court advantage in most cases and plus the competition is alot better. Each of these mid major teams are darn near champions of their respective league via tourny or regular season. And when books wanna give 11, 12 or more points in your favor thats hard to turn down.

GL today

that would be true if your just a numbers better. but gt is a good example of why u watch games for key things for 2nd half bets (i normally dont in most cases as i'm that type as well) but the match up of the speed vs the big ass slow fucks and lack of coaching to stop. no way u would have taken them in the 2nd half

 

[pops69]

saturday march 20th

less than 10 shopping days to xmas

day 2 much better than day one. calif is the best team i've seen played so far

temp in the same class as gt with respect to coaches. both are sorry fucks