Realizing I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed, some random thoughts as I sit here playing with myself:
I am not sold (and believe me I want to be) on systems, zens or whatever name we give them, that we latch onto after a win record of 9-1, 11-2, or whatever. Two reasons come to mind immediately: 1) Not enough observations to be statistically valid 2) With this level of success, there's a good chance the party is already over. If anything, could be a good fade since one would expect a regression towards the norm
A sharp, hugely successful local bettor/bookie (who had almost as much money as pops) once said, "If I didn't go to the wedding, I sure as hell ain't going to the funeral." What he was referring to was if he heard about a guy who had gone 4-0 on the early games and he missed out on those, he wasn't going to tail the guy on his 4 late games.
An analogy could be made for our plays. I wasn't in on the 9-1, 11-2, or whatever. So do I want to jump in now? I have and so far haven't been hurt. One thing I like about CTP's methods is that he seems to focus more on recent results than overall record. And yes, I'm learning to use the drop down filters in the Master to pick up the last 21 days record he likes to use.
Thanks to all who have attempted to educate me. It's sinking in. Problem is I know just enough to be dangerous. Gotta go now. Time to switch hands.
I am not sold (and believe me I want to be) on systems, zens or whatever name we give them, that we latch onto after a win record of 9-1, 11-2, or whatever. Two reasons come to mind immediately: 1) Not enough observations to be statistically valid 2) With this level of success, there's a good chance the party is already over. If anything, could be a good fade since one would expect a regression towards the norm
A sharp, hugely successful local bettor/bookie (who had almost as much money as pops) once said, "If I didn't go to the wedding, I sure as hell ain't going to the funeral." What he was referring to was if he heard about a guy who had gone 4-0 on the early games and he missed out on those, he wasn't going to tail the guy on his 4 late games.
An analogy could be made for our plays. I wasn't in on the 9-1, 11-2, or whatever. So do I want to jump in now? I have and so far haven't been hurt. One thing I like about CTP's methods is that he seems to focus more on recent results than overall record. And yes, I'm learning to use the drop down filters in the Master to pick up the last 21 days record he likes to use.
Thanks to all who have attempted to educate me. It's sinking in. Problem is I know just enough to be dangerous. Gotta go now. Time to switch hands.
c use the 21 day trend alot. i'm more of a range person myself, ump type 1st and 2nd game of a series eg. i feel that last 21 days is cathing the end of a trend. i told c, he need to try to find trends early on than stick with them thru the cycle until they change. not an easy task. zen o/u are more math based and not as much trend driven. i think what your doing with the pivots is what you should be and look at all the various periods. we talking about seconds to use a drop down filter not hours to get your answers
Not sure I agree here. I publish the recent record but I can guarantee if the previous results were not as good I would not be there in the first place.
Take the latest stuff I have been working on. Based strictly off winning percentages home and visitor away. Since July 1
N=36-15 last week 5-4 week b4 that 0-0
A=25-5 last week 2-3 week b4 that 4-0
What would keep one off those plays. Easy to look back and say I should not have done it because they lost last week but the week b4 4-0.
Then say you pick on a zen play there is one since May 1 is 29-9. In the last 35 days the A league is 1-3 and N 2-2. Though a great record what is there to think you have anything more than a 3-5 chance of winning. Play yesterday was Bos and it lost. One could go with the fact of getting good money on a single wager. This looks at a huge range of dogs though not just the HF 6 and 7 ones as a visitor play.
Hope you get my drift. Is there an answer-NO. I think it is based primarily on match ups. Tms do better agst some than others. When one can handle that I think one would be extremely successful.
CTP I am sure you follow over to Pops thread for college foots and we spoke before and you offered help. When the season is over I would like to improve my skills using the ss, would you be interested in if I had some q+a's? Thanks, I am very appreciate of all the hard work that goes on in here during the season.
