2009 NFL Playoffs Picks

[buffettgambler]

:howdy:

Hello buffettgambler...

Thanks for taking the time to post your thoughts on the upcoming games as I enjoy reading your postings as they are usually pretty well thought out and insightful...

...however, the case you made against Pittsburgh with regard to who they played this year and which games they lost and to which teams they lost to could in fact be used against the Ravens as well.

A peek at Baltimore's schedule and their results shows that the Ravens lost five games this year with each and every loss to a playoff bound team (including two losses to Pittsburgh)...

...three of the Ravens five losses occurred on the road and 2 of the 3 losses were BLOWOUT losses to the Colts (3-31) and to the Giants by the final of 10-30, the Ravens also lost to Pittsburgh on the road in OT 20-23 however the Ravens were actually down 17-3 in that game.

Meaning that a case could be made that:

A.) Baltimore is playing a playoff team and each Raven loss was against a playoff team...

B.) Three of the Ravens five seasonal losses occurred on the road and they are on the road this week...

C.) Two of the Ravens three road losses were by 28 and 20 points...

Using the above data we could easily conclude that the Ravens will likely get blown out this week, will that happen?

Needless to say we don't know for sure who will win and by how many points, however, this much we do know and that is the fact that the Ravens are a beat up bunch that is playing their 18th straight game without rest and have a rookie QB leading them into battle.

I believe you are correct in your assessment of the NFC Championship game with regard to the UNDER, I lean to the UNDER as well, however, the O/U number on the game (47) is now a stale number as it opened up at 49.5 and has been bet downward to 47, meaning that the value on that play has already been sucked out of it.

Once again nice job on your written analysis, its always a joy to read the work of someone who obviously researches what they write and is able to put their thoughts into a clear and coherent format.

Take care and be well my friend...

Dirtydog

:wink:

Dirtydog,
Good analysis. However, I think you are confusing my statements as trying to rationalize that the Ravens are the better team and are going to win tommorrow with what I was trying to communicate- the Steelers are not an ideal team to back laying this many points to an above average team.

I think you and I both know that the Ravens are a different team than the one they put forth in Indy and got blown out.

Also I think you are putting too much stock into the past performance of the Ravens road games earlier in the year. This is a team that just one two road playoffs in hostile stadiums two week straights, including last week in Tenn, where the Steelers lost by 17 a few weeks back. Is that not more material than what transpired in October?

For what its worth, the Ravens were never down 17-3 when they played in Pit in Sept. In actuality, the Ravens were up 13-3 in the 3rd when Pit put up 14 points in 30 secs on a big passing play and a defensive touchdown.

Yes, a lot of value has been sucked out of the Under in the Ari game (about 35 cent change in price). But if the line opened at 47, would you still claim no value on the Under? Also, I got in at 49 earlier in the week, but don't post my plays until Saturday, and I always post the current market price.

best of luck this week.

 

[buffettgambler]

hey buffet, how did you do in the bases this season? i know you're one of the best mlb cappers around. looked for your posts all season long!!!

PokerNinja,
I decided not to post baseball last season. Hope your season went well. Already started working on the 2009 season.

 

[BORO]

PokerNinja,
I decided not to post baseball last season. Hope your season went well. Already started working on the 2009 season.

Are you going to post your baseball Here?

 

[a153]

It's not about trying to figure out whether "he" knows what he is doing. Firstly, oddsmakers opened it after the Steelers/Chargers game at 5, not 6. And prior to the Steelers/Chargers game the oddsmakers at some offshores were posting the Ravens/Steelers line at -3. This is market players overreacting to what transpired in the Steelers/Chargers game and the injuries to the Ravens defense that is getting much more attention that what it would be getting if there were 15 other games being played this week like during the regular season.

As a handicapper, my role is to try to find mispricings, not figure out what oddsmakers know or not know. In my opinion, the oddsmakers were right with their initial value of this game of 3. The market participants during the week I feel have overreacted.

If in fact the oddsmakers did open up the line at six, I wouldn't know why. But I didn't know why they opened the Panthers at 9.5 or the Giants at 4 last week either.

Best of luck this week.

Do you bet every mispricing? Just because the line is mispriced that doesn't mean its going to win.

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

:howdy:

Why would ANY book open Pittsburgh as ONLY a 3 point favorite at home against Baltimore for this AFC Championship game, if you saw that somewhere it was a huge mistake by whomever does the data entry for that particular book...

...a simple glance backward in time shows that the past FIVE times the Baltimore Ravens have visited Pittsburgh the number closed with the Steelers laying -5, -9, -4, -13, and -5.5 and Pittsburgh posted a mark of 4-1 straight up in those last five games held in Pittsburgh.

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:toast:

 

[PokerNinja]

yeah yeah yeah... are you posting baseball this season here, or just doing it yourself? i had an ok baseball season. can't complain.

 

[buffettgambler]

:howdy:

Why would ANY book open Pittsburgh as ONLY a 3 point favorite at home against Baltimore for this AFC Championship game, if you saw that somewhere it was a huge mistake by whomever does the data entry for that particular book...

...a simple glance backward in time shows that the past FIVE times the Baltimore Ravens have visited Pittsburgh the number closed with the Steelers laying -5, -9, -4, -13, and -5.5 and Pittsburgh posted a mark of 4-1 straight up in those last five games held in Pittsburgh.

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:toast:

A better question is why not? Did the Ravens not close at 3 point favorites to the Steelers at home last month? On December 14th, the market valued the Ravens and Steelers as equals. What has transpired from then to now should keep the valuation disparity of these teams relatively the same (if not skewed to the Ravens). The Steelers were six point favorites to the Ravens in September. This is when the market was completely undervaluing the Ravens (the Ravens were a 1 point favorite the week prior to the Browns).How could the Ravens close at the same price as they were in September?

Puting the Steelers at -3 -120 last Sunday morning was not a huge mistake, just following the footsteps of what the market was pricing these teams last month. What transpired between these two teams five years ago in Pit is completely irrelevant is trying to quantify today's games fair value.

For what it is worth, Mike Seba was pushing out 3.5, and is somewhat baffled by the opening line.

 

[buffettgambler]

Do you bet every mispricing? Just because the line is mispriced that doesn't mean its going to win.

No, I implement a margin of safety in my valuation model, as I know it is not infallible.

A lot of people approach handicapping wrong. They come with the expectations of wanting to win every game, and if a game doesn't win, they conclude they were on the wrong side. My analogy to a handicappers role and the marketplaces role is this:
There is a basket of 100 balls and 2 different colors, red and blue. At first blush, one has no idea how many red balls there are in the basket and how blue ones there are. The handicapers role is to qualitatively and quantitatively break down the game to try to decipher to the best he can how colors of each ball there is in the basket. Through handicapping, if I can conclude there are 55 red balls in the basket, and the market price for the red ball being picked is -110, I will unload on the red team. If a blue ball gets picked during that game, was I on the wrong side? No
(assuming my valuations has been proven quantitatively accurate in the long term).

 

[buffettgambler]

yeah yeah yeah... are you posting baseball this season here, or just doing it yourself? i had an ok baseball season. can't complain.

Not sure yet. I would like to share my insights in some capacity.

 

[DIRTYDOG1]

A better question is why not? Did the Ravens not close at 3 point favorites to the Steelers at home last month? On December 14th, the market valued the Ravens and Steelers as equals. What has transpired from then to now should keep the valuation disparity of these teams relatively the same (if not skewed to the Ravens). <!-- / message -->

:howdy:Hello buffettgambler...

Thanks for the reply my friend, like you I like to compare same season home and/or away lines when two teams face one another again in the same season and use that as a basis to see if the present line is off or has been over-adjusted in anyway...

...you are entirely correct in that Pittsburgh closed as a 2.5 to 3.0 doggie when they played at Baltimore on December 14th, you are also entirely correct in that THAT closing line would lead one to believe that the line on this affair would have Pittsburgh -3 based on a simple home/away reversal.

However, a peek at the final results of that last meeting in Baltimore reveals that Pittsburgh not only won the contest 13-9 on the score board but also actually won the stat wars by a fairly significant margin with regard to the Steelers out yarding the Ravens 311 to 202, having more first downs than the Ravens 18 to 12, and Pittsburgh winning the TOP (time of possession) battle 31:38 to 28:22.

This meeting is also different in that Pittsburgh has had a bye week while the Ravens are playing on the road AGAIN for the 4th time in a 5 week span since that home game against Pittsburgh...

...Thusly, when factoring in that Pittsburgh won the last meeting in Baltimore in straight up fashion, also won that game in the stats and has had a week of rest while the Ravens are playing on the road AGAIN for a 3rd straight week and on the road for a 4th time in 5 weeks, its no small wonder that the odds maker shaded the line in Pittsburgh's favor...

...add in the fact that Baltimore visits Pittsburgh with a rookie QB and they probably added another point to the line.

We've all heard from the media that Flacco is the greatest thing since sliced bread and that he is the first rookie to win two playoffs games, however, in the big picture there is a REASON no rookie has made it this far in the playoffs in the past...

I Personally make my own lines based on power ratings and then add in any and all contributing factors and intangibles heading into a contest, for what its worth my ratings have Pittsburgh by 10 points and show that the O/U on this game should be 38.

Take care and be well my friend

Dirtydog

:wink:

 

[krh7]

Not sure yet. I would like to share my insights in some capacity.

please do. your baseball write-ups are great. i know they were getting ripped off a few years ago, but hopefully something works out for all your fans at the rx.